AK-47 vs AK-74... the future of 5.45... and the KING of assault rifles

[skypirate7]

You are right that there are few if any countries purchasing AK-74s, but like I have said before, that is not necessarily due to any functional failing of the 74.

Please don't take it the wrong way, I am in no way knocking the AK-74. It's a great weapon. It is the Soviet's answer to the 5.56x45. But the Soviet Union collapsed before the AK-74 could overtake the prolific AK-47, and now all of the countries which used Soviet weapons are either sticking with the AK-47 or switching to 5.56x45. I think the AK-74 is going to die out within a couple decades. Outside of Russia it's pretty much already dead (or sucking in its last dying breaths).

If you have stockpiles of 7.62x39 ammunition already in country and you have a limited budget, then the cost of transition will have to be calculated into the reasoning for a change. It is true that even developing countries continually purchase weapons and have done so since the Cold War, but you have to factor into that what economists call "path dependence." Russia and China flooding the market during the Cold War has skewed the market forces towards the AK-47 for good or for bad.

Very true, but let's not think that the ONLY reason that much of the world uses the AK-47 and 7.62x39 is because they are widely available.

I think many countries take a serious look at the 7.62x39 and prefer its greater penetration and "knock-down power" over the 5.45 and 5.56.

And of course, they love the AK design for its reliability, simplicity, and affordability.

Btw, I hope I'm not scaring people away from buying AK-74's. Right now, AK-74 WASR-2's are the least expensive AK's on the market (for example, Aim Surplus is offering them for $289). Furthermore, 5.45x39 is the cheapest assault rifle ammo on the market (cheaper than 7.62x39 and way cheaper than 5.56x45). Of course, some people might be afraid that ammo and parts might dry up for their AK-74's in the not so distant future. That is something to consider.

 

[Number 6]

Please don't take it the wrong way, I am in no way knocking the AK-74. It's a great weapon. It is the Soviet's answer to the 5.56x45. But the Soviet Union collapsed before the AK-74 could overtake the prolific AK-47, and now all of the countries which used Soviet weapons are either sticking with the AK-47 or switching to 5.56x45. I think the AK-74 is going to die out within a couple decades. Outside of Russia it's pretty much already dead (or sucking in its last dying breaths).

I think we can agree that the 7.62x39 round is going to outlast the 5.45x39 round, but I tend to think that the Russians will keep the round alive for the foreseeable future. Also, keep in mind that in insurgencies and low intensity conflicts you tend to see an eclectic array of weaponry, and I would not be surprised if you see a good number of AK-74s show up in these conflicts for quite some time.

Very true, but let's not think that the ONLY reason that much of the world uses the AK-47 and 7.62x39 is because they are widely available.

I think many countries take a serious look at the 7.62x39 and prefer its greater penetration and "knock-down power" over the 5.45 and 5.56.

And of course, they love the AK design for its reliability, simplicity, and affordability.

I have a lot of respect for the 7.62x39 round, and I do not discount that those who have chosen that round did consider its penetration and ballistic capabilities. But, in a world devoid of politics, a country could weigh reliability, ballistics, simplicity, and affordability with an unbiased eye. This is not the world we live in however. The problem is that by the Soviet Union and China flooding the market with AK-47s they have biased evaluations towards affordability. So truly gauging how much a country considers ballistics, simplicity, and reliability is made difficult. I do not discount that the countries that have adopted the AK-47 have made such considerations, but by skewing the market, it is almost impossible to gauge the extent that other factors other than affordability have influenced the adoption of the AK-47. Using the adoption of the AK-47 over the AK-74 as evidence for the superiority of the 7.62x39 round is then problematic.

 

[Lucky]

To be extra clear:

5.45 is NOT being phased out.

Russia is planning their next rifles to fire it.

Do they care if other countries use it? Let's look at the situation;

Economics:
-They still make 7.62x39 and can sell that.
-They make a version of any 5.45 rifle in 5.56 and sell that.

Defence:
-They build their entire country with a different gauge of railway, despite the expense of brand-new everything that cost, so that invaders couldn't use their rail system. And it worked. Seems they don't mind if what they do is incompatible with others, in fact they sort of seem to like it.

 

[skypirate7]

Maybe so. Maybe the Russians will continue using 5.45x39 long into the future. But as an "international" round, it has lost the battle to 7.62x39 and 5.56x45.

I think we can agree that the 7.62x39 round is going to outlast the 5.45x39 round, but I tend to think that the Russians will keep the round alive for the foreseeable future. Also, keep in mind that in insurgencies and low intensity conflicts you tend to see an eclectic array of weaponry, and I would not be surprised if you see a good number of AK-74s show up in these conflicts for quite some time.

True... but then again, some Iraqi insurgents were using STG-44's. They had been smuggled in through Syria, which had bought them from East Germany sometime after WW2. I wonder if the Iraqis had much ammo for it. My point is that most militia groups will use whatever they can get their hands on, even if such weapons and ammunition belong in a museum, because they are strapped for cash and don't have a choice.

I suspect the future of ammo 5-10 years from now will look something like this (if it doesn't already):

North America: 5.56x45
South America: Mix of 5.56x45 and 7.62x39
Europe (including Turkey): 5.56x45
Africa: Mostly 7.62x39, some 5.56x45
Arabia + Iran: Mix of 5.56x45 and 7.62x39
Indian Subcontinent: Mostly 5.56x45, some 7.62x39
China: 5.8x42
Russia: 5.45x39
Central Asia: 7.62x39
East Asia: Mix of 5.56x45 and 7.62x39
Australia: 5.56x45

 

[Evil Monkey]

Why the hell are we arguing about popularity of certain cartridges? WHO CARES?

We are civilian gun collectors. All cartridges become available as soon as there are enough weapons out there for those calibers. Didn't 5.45mm appear in the US about 8 years? Show me where it's falling out of favor with AK collectors. There's plenty of AK-74's in the US......someone (hint hint wolf, bear, poland, bulgaria, etc, hint hint) has to supply ammo for these rifles and make a bit of money. The day Russia TOTALLY STOPS using the 5.45mm is day you should be afraid.

I said this before in another thread, if suddenly a miracle happened and China started exporting 5.8x42mm Chinese QBZ-95 rifles to the US, they would dump tons 5.8mm munitions with them. It would eventually, just like the 5.45mm, be very popular and cheap in the US.

Look at the 6.5mm Grendel, it's been out for how long? Like 5 years? Still there's not enough guns chambered for it, yet I hear wolf is coming out with some steel cased 6.5mm.

I think some people worry to much. Look, when you're at the range shooting anything, 5.56 NATO, 5.45 Soviet, 5.8 Chinese, .30 Carbine, or even something imaginary like 20mm Rosie's ass, you're not thinking about "oh my bullets and not popular in the world", you're thinking "*BOOM*, YEAH! SWEET!"

 

[HorseSoldier]

I think many countries take a serious look at the 7.62x39 and prefer its greater penetration and "knock-down power" over the 5.45 and 5.56.

It seems to me that the only two nations that formerly used 7.62x39 to take a really hard look at it and its performance -- the USSR and the PRC -- both opted for other rounds.

The rest of the Warsaw Pact mostly adopted 5.45x39 because they had to (the Czechoslovaks' retained their vz.58s in 7.62x39 and did the Hungarians ever switch to the AK-74?). They're now going with 5.56x45 for the same reason -- standardization with allies.

The various other clients of the USSR in Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East, bought what the Soviets were selling -- had it been 5.45x39 in the 1950s to 1980s, they'd be shooting those today.

Hugo Chavez does like the 7.62x39 AK-47, but I was serious when I pointed out that those 100,000 rifles are being purchased partly because of their logistical compatability with FARC's existing weaponry (and Cuba). I don't think Hugo is an authority on small arms or much of anything else beyond pressing the campesinos' buttons and getting them all riled up, and/or destroying his country's economy, annihilating its middle class, etc.

Iraq is re-equipping with AKMs because they're cheap, Iraq is full of guys who know how to use them, and their is (or was) domestic capacity to produce ammo and weapons in 7.62x39. Path of least resistance and effort.

I don't see 7.62x39 going away any time soon in the 3rd World, but it's a generation behind modern small arms ammunition designs, and brings a number of minuses to the table alongside its pluses (heavy and bulky for what it does; mediocre external and teminal ballistics come to mind). I'd guess my (unborn) grandchildren will be dead before the last shot in anger from an AK-47 is fired (probably somewhere in Africa) but the longevity does not necessarily equate directly to quality of the round or the weapon firing it.

 

[mordechaianiliewicz]

SkyPirate7, I disagree with the list.


North America: 5.56x45
South America: Mix of 5.56x45 and 7.62x39
Europe (including Turkey): 5.56x45
Africa: Mostly 7.62x39, some 5.56x45
Arabia + Iran: Mix of 5.56x45 and 7.62x39
Indian Subcontinent: Mostly 5.56x45, some 7.62x39
China: 5.8x42
Russia: 5.45x39
Central Asia: 7.62x39
East Asia: Mix of 5.56x45 and 7.62x39
Australia: 5.56x45

South America will be almost totally 7.62x39mm, and 7.62x51mm.

But, South America will be the last gasp of Communism. North America will have massive quantities of 7.62x39mm, and probably millions of AK type rifles. It's just they'll all be in civilian hands.

Realize that ammo goes away fast, but the guns that shoot the ammo last for a hundred years or longer potentially.

Because of this, and the fact that 5.45x39mm is produced for export, and those are going down in price, I suspect Africa will have many, many AK-74 rifles in the future.

But, I also think it is possible that America will have potentially millions of AK-74 rifles in civilian hands because of large numbers, and cheapness (bc of little military demand).

 

[Number 6]

It seems to me that the only two nations that formerly used 7.62x39 to take a really hard look at it and its performance -- the USSR and the PRC -- both opted for other rounds.

The rest of the Warsaw Pact mostly adopted 5.45x39 because they had to (the Czechoslovaks' retained their vz.58s in 7.62x39 and did the Hungarians ever switch to the AK-74?). They're now going with 5.56x45 for the same reason -- standardization with allies.

The various other clients of the USSR in Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East, bought what the Soviets were selling -- had it been 5.45x39 in the 1950s to 1980s, they'd be shooting those today.

Hugo Chavez does like the 7.62x39 AK-47, but I was serious when I pointed out that those 100,000 rifles are being purchased partly because of their logistical compatability with FARC's existing weaponry (and Cuba). I don't think Hugo is an authority on small arms or much of anything else beyond pressing the campesinos' buttons and getting them all riled up, and/or destroying his country's economy, annihilating its middle class, etc.

Iraq is re-equipping with AKMs because they're cheap, Iraq is full of guys who know how to use them, and their is (or was) domestic capacity to produce ammo and weapons in 7.62x39. Path of least resistance and effort.

I don't see 7.62x39 going away any time soon in the 3rd World, but it's a generation behind modern small arms ammunition designs, and brings a number of minuses to the table alongside its pluses (heavy and bulky for what it does; mediocre external and teminal ballistics come to mind). I'd guess my (unborn) grandchildren will be dead before the last shot in anger from an AK-47 is fired (probably somewhere in Africa) but the longevity does not necessarily equate directly to quality of the round or the weapon firing it.

I think you are bringing up an excellent point; that a lot of what caliber various governments adopted had to do with political alliances and not just with the capabilities of a particular cartridge or rifle.

I suspect the future of ammo 5-10 years from now will look something like this (if it doesn't already):

North America: 5.56x45
South America: Mix of 5.56x45 and 7.62x39
Europe (including Turkey): 5.56x45
Africa: Mostly 7.62x39, some 5.56x45
Arabia + Iran: Mix of 5.56x45 and 7.62x39
Indian Subcontinent: Mostly 5.56x45, some 7.62x39
China: 5.8x42
Russia: 5.45x39
Central Asia: 7.62x39
East Asia: Mix of 5.56x45 and 7.62x39
Australia: 5.56x45

I agree with mordechaianiliewicz that your list seems to be inaccurate. There are a ton of FALs used worldwide that you are not including. Nongovernmental forces need to taken into account as well. In some countries the use of private security forces or paramilitary forces are abundant, so you should take them into account as well.

Next to the AK-47, the FAL was one of the most widely distributed small arm during the Cold War. It is currently carried by some government’s troops and is also being used by nongovernmental forces worldwide. Anecdoticaly, almost every security guard or militiaman I saw in Rwanda and the DRC carried a FAL. The FAL and the G3 were also widely used by countries that have not retired them from service yet or have just recently retired them. Iran and Mexico used the G3 until very recently, and are currently being phased out. While Venezuela bought 100,000 AKs, it is still retaining the FAL for its reserve forces and territorial guard. I also believe Argentina is retaining some FALs for its military forces. So 7.62x51 will be widely used for many years to come.

5.56 will most likely be what round that most Latin American government forces switch to, but that will take many years to implement, and even then the FALs will likely be around for many years to come.

True... but then again, some Iraqi insurgents were using STG-44's. They had been smuggled in through Syria, which had bought them from East Germany sometime after WW2. I wonder if the Iraqis had much ammo for it. My point is that most militia groups will use whatever they can get their hands on, even if such weapons and ammunition belong in a museum, because they are strapped for cash and don't have a choice.

True, Militia groups and insurgents will use whatever they can get their hands on, but if there are large quantities of a particular arm that they possess that means there is a market for the continuation of that cartridge and that platform. Hypothetically, if there are many irregular forces fielding 5.45 AKs, then that creates a market for that platform and cartridge. Could the AK-74 make its way into widespread use within irregular forces? That really depends upon how Russia, and the politics in the developing world play out, but it is a possibility.

 

[skypirate7]

I agree with mordechaianiliewicz that your list seems to be inaccurate. There are a ton of FALs used worldwide that you are not including. Nongovernmental forces need to taken into account as well. In some countries the use of private security forces or paramilitary forces are abundant, so you should take them into account as well.

I was honestly not taking large caliber rifle rounds into consideration. But you are right that South America, India, Pakistan, and Iran all use 7.62x51 a lot (especially for battle rifles like the FN FAL and HK G3). However, if we start considering large caliber rifle rounds, it will become a battle between 7.62x51 and 7.62x54R which is a totally different story. Battle rifles are largely a thing of the past though. They have been mostly phased out and are primarily specialty weapons for longer-range fighting.

Besides, the Soviets didn't really have a semi-auto battle rifle in 7.62x54R that became widespread like battle rifles in 7.62x51. I know, I know, you're going to say the SVT-40... but it wasn't nearly as widespread post-WW2 as the FN FAL, HK G3, and M14. There is, of course, the Dragunov SVD, but that was designed as a designated-marksman rifle... which is pretty much what the M14 has become. Maybe the Russians were ahead of the pack on this.

With regards to civilians, I also was also ignoring them in the list. I know there's a lot of civilians in the USA who shoot 7.62x39 and there's a lot of civilians in Europe who shoot 8mm. But I'm talking about what is standard issue for world militaries. Militaries consume the most ammo and civilians are largely irrelevant-- except when their country is being invaded and they are organized into militias.

Btw, I don't think the Chinese have *completely* replaced 7.62x39 with their 5.8 caliber yet. I wouldn't be surprised if reserves and border guards still use Type-56's (Chinese made AK-47's).

 

[HorseSoldier]

Btw, I don't think the Chinese have *completely* replaced 7.62x39 with their 5.8 caliber yet. I wouldn't be surprised if reserves and border guards still use Type-56's (Chinese made AK-47's).

They've made the decision to switch over to their homegrown round, but I think that not just reserves and border guards, but lots of their active duty military units are still carrying 7.62x39 AKs. The sheer size of their army, plus their attempts to sort of modernize everything at once with a limited budget, makes for slow turn over of all sorts of gear, including small arms (which is probably intentional, as it keeps most everybody with kit that's known to work while a few elite units work out the kinks in the new stuff and keep production lines working).

 

[Number 6]

I was honestly not taking large caliber rifle rounds into consideration. But you are right that South America, India, Pakistan, and Iran all use 7.62x51 a lot (especially for battle rifles like the FN FAL and HK G3). However, if we start considering large caliber rifle rounds, it will become a battle between 7.62x51 and 7.62x54R which is a totally different story. Battle rifles are largely a thing of the past though. They have been mostly phased out and are primarily specialty weapons for longer-range fighting.

Besides, the Soviets didn't really have a semi-auto battle rifle in 7.62x54R that became widespread like battle rifles in 7.62x51. I know, I know, you're going to say the SVT-40... but it wasn't nearly as widespread post-WW2 as the FN FAL, HK G3, and M14. There is, of course, the Dragunov SVD, but that was designed as a designated-marksman rifle... which is pretty much what the M14 has become. Maybe the Russians were ahead of the pack on this.

With regards to civilians, I also was also ignoring them in the list. I know there's a lot of civilians in the USA who shoot 7.62x39 and there's a lot of civilians in Europe who shoot 8mm. But I'm talking about what is standard issue for world militaries. Militaries consume the most ammo and civilians are largely irrelevant-- except when their country is being invaded and they are organized into militias.

Btw, I don't think the Chinese have *completely* replaced 7.62x39 with their 5.8 caliber yet. I wouldn't be surprised if reserves and border guards still use Type-56's (Chinese made AK-47's).

The whole battle rifle vs. assault rifle distinction is one that was invented by magazine writers for gun magazines. The military does not distinguish between them and nor do I think such a distinction should made for the analysis you propose. FALs, G3s, and M-14s were issued for the same purpose as the AK-47 and then the M16. It was not until recently that the M-14 and the SR-25 were issued as a designated marksman rifle, although the M-14 has largely been replaced in that role. Discounting the FAL, G3, or the M-14 from the fielded weapons and cartridges does not really make sense then, since you are only looking at the range and power of the cartridge, instead of looking at the role these rifles have fulfilled. The FAL and the AK47 fulfilled similar roles in their respective army, thus I would think you would want to consider them along the same lines.

If you want look at what cartridges are fielded by region then you are going to have to look at nongovernmental forces in many of these regions, since in some of these regions they are large forces and have taken upon themselves the role of the military in some instances. Paramilitaries in Guatemala, contractors and militias in Iraq, private security forces in Africa are armed forces that operate to some extent like the government. So looking at only what an army fields is a little misleading if you want to determine what cartridge is most prominent in a region.

As for the Chinese, you are right; I believe they are still using the 7.62x39 round in their rear echelon troops. But my point was that there are countries that have volitionally opted to drop the 7.62x39 for a smaller cartridge. Eventually the Chinese will most likely phase out the 7.62x39. Apparently the Chinese think they can do better with their own design, and are willing to pay the costs of transition.

The larger point I am trying to make is that it is extremely difficult to determine which one is better, or which one is going to last longer based upon who fields either cartridge. Economics, geopolitics, internal politics, and military policy makes any analysis difficult and the data murky at best.

 

[skypirate7]

Regardless of which is better, it seems that 5.45 is on the way out for all countries excluding Russia.

 

[BADUNAME13]

Well, 5.45x39 is THE round around here! Although I prefer the 7.62x39.
-That may change as I shoot up the 58,000 odd rounds of 5.45 I have left.

Hey, worst case... the operating/handling of the AK47 and ak74 are the same!
(Why I picked up the AK74 in the first place.)

As for civilians not being a factor in world weapons markets... you might want to think about how many company's from how many countries are selling to the US taxpayer... and rethink that statement!

 

[skypirate7]

Oh, civilians are a factor, but world militaries are a much bigger factor simply because of the sheer volume of their orders.

Right now, 5.45 is actually cheaper than 7.62x39 and 5.56x45. But I remember just 3 or 4 years ago it was hard to get.

 

[Evil Monkey]

But I remember just 3 or 4 years ago it was hard to get.

Well the commercial market just started to cater to 5.45mm rifle owners. With all those bulgarian and polish parts kits coming in as well as romanian wasr2's coming in, some body has to make ammo to feed these rifles. Russian steel cased 5.45mm costs the same as russian 5.56mm and 7.62, etc, steel cased ammo.

Like I said, it's going to take a very very very long time for 5.45mm to disappear. There are many ak-74's in the country and russia is still using it and we are still doing business with them.