Arafat on the Way Out?

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Keith

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When Arafat is overthrown or "steps down for health reasons" (or just plain croaks), will peace come at last?

http://www.guardian.co.uk/israel/Story/0,2763,1058298,00.html

Arafat has suffered heart attack, admits aide

Officials tried to hide condition of president threatened by Israel

Chris McGreal in Jerusalem
Wednesday October 8, 2003
The Guardian

Yasser Arafat has suffered a mild heart attack but the Palestinian leadership has sought to keep his health problems secret for fear it will "create panic".
The 74-year-old Palestinian president, who is suffering from Parkinson's disease, disappeared from public view last week and re-emerged at the weekend looking extremely ill. His face was pale and pinched, he had lost weight and he was almost inaudible. He had trouble standing for more than a few minutes at a time.

The Palestinian press said he was suffering from flu. But Palestinian officials told the Guardian that Mr Arafat had suffered a heart attack last week. "Although he has had a slight heart attack, the doctors say he will make a full recovery. He is in full control. There is nothing to worry about," said a close aide to Mr Arafat, who did not wish to be named.

Asked why it had not been made public at the time, the official said that it would "have created panic at a critical time when the Israelis are threatening Arafat's life".

At the beginning of last week, the Palestinian president was visited by his personal physician from Jordan, Dr Ashraf al-Kurdi, and a heart specialist, Yousuf al-Qusous, after he abruptly cancelled all appointments and disappeared from view. The doctors said the Palestinian president had been hit by flu but was recovered. "The illness is over, thank God," Dr Kurdi said at the time.

But a few days later, Mr Arafat was again isolated from all but a few close aides. Again, the official explanation was flu. Sources inside the Palestinian leader's compound in Ramallah say he was too weak to eat for several days. When he reappeared at the weekend, regular visitors to Mr Arafat's compound commented on how ill he looked.

Yesterday, the Palestinian foreign minister, Nabil Shaath, said Mr Arafat was suffering from a stomach ailment which was believed to be an ulcer. He described him as "very frail".

Israeli officials say the Palestinian president's health is not a factor as the government considers whether or not to carry out its threat to exile, or even kill, Mr Arafat. "It would be very convenient if nature were to take its course," said an Israeli foreign ministry official, Jonathan Peled. "But Mr Arafat is a cat with nine lives and we do not believe he has used all of them yet."

If Mr Arafat require medical treatment that is not available in Ramallah, he would be likely to travel to Egypt or Jordan but only if Israel permits him to return to the West Bank. Mr Peled said the government would be happy to see Mr Arafat leave but was unlikely to allow him to return.

The Egyptian press recently reported that Mr Arafat has sought the help of the government in Cairo to ensure that when he dies he is buried next to the Aqsa mosque in Jerusalem, Islam's third holiest site. Israel would have to give its consent for Mr Arafat's body to be moved from Ramallah to Jerusalem. Israeli officials say that would be unlikely in the present climate.

Mr Arafat was on hand yesterday for the swearing-in of an emergency government led by the new prime minister, Ahmed Qureia. But the new administration is already beset by power struggles over crucial issues such as control of the Palestinian security forces.

Khalil Shikaki, a leading Palestinian political analyst, said Mr Qureia's government was unlikely to ease the conflict with Israel.

"I don't expect this government to deliver very much on the two main issues that confront the Palestinians, political reform and security," he said. "The reform process was destroyed by Arafat when he equated it to disloyalty. The previous government had a much better chance to bring peace because it had the 'road map' [the US-led peace plan] and a ceasefire from Hamas. That is all gone."

"Today, escalation is the dominant theme. Sooner or later the Israelis will expel or kill Arafat, and invade Gaza and reoccupy it. The logic of the Israeli policy is escalation."
 
Arafat had better pick up an AK and charge the Israeli Defense forces
so he can get in on the 72 virgin deal.
 
only if Israel permits him to return

Israel would have to give its consent for Mr Arafat's body to be moved from Ramallah to Jerusalem. Israeli officials say that would be unlikely in the present climate.

I'm sure Israel will get smacked for "not being helpful" to the "peace process", but why in the world would the Palestinians think that Israel would allow their main enemy to come and go when he pleases, and then when he passes be allowed to be buried in their country? Good grief!
 
You had me all excited then Keith, then let me down (hope you are well).

Unfortunately there is truth in what Sam says.
 
I'm not so sure. Arafat has single-handedly blocked every peace deal that's come down the pike in the last 40 years. Not to mention stolen every dime that's come into the PA from the UN.

Nobody else will have the stature to get away with that. I see the PA breaking down into warring factions that can be used against each other. I suspect things will take a turn for the better once they throw dirt in Yasser's face.

Keith
 
When Arafat is overthrown or "steps down for health reasons" (or just plain croaks), will peace come at last?
Yes and no. There are many there who don't want peace with Israel, Arafat isn't the only one. However, Arafat was clearly an obstacle to peace. There will not be peace until he is gone. When he is gone I predict a power struggle, some Palestinian leaders will try to outdo each other on who is more anti-Israel. However, in a few years, without Arafat behind the scenes (or in the forefront) to sabotage things, we may eventually finally find some Palestinian leaders who are willing to be reasonable and negotiate in good faith (something impossible while Arafat is around).
 
When I first read about his "heart attack", it made me wonder if there really was one or if this is merely a face-saving method of removing/replacing him with someone the US and Israel will deal with. It may also allow him a way to pick his replacement instead of him simply croaking and an internal power struggle occurring.
 
When Arafat is overthrown or "steps down for health reasons" (or just plain croaks), will peace come at last?

I think there is a good chance it will create a power vacuum that could launch the Palestinian area into total chaos. Although he is a thug and a liar, he is a moderating influence on some of the more radical elements of hamas. It's all speculation at this point, but look what happened when we ran Saddam out of Iraq. The devil that replaces Arafat is pretty likely to be worse than the devil we alrteady know.
 
It's all speculation at this point, but look what happened when we ran Saddam out of Iraq.

You mean the end of people getting shoved through wood chippers? The opening of the childrens prison? The opening of the mass graves so people could take their loved ones home for burial? There are less killings in Iraq now than there are in DC - and the gun laws are less oppressive...

Arafat is not a "moderating" influence. He allows Hamas free rein to kill as many as they can. He always has and always will, until the day they throw dirt in his ugly face.

Keith
 
Arafat is the chief franchise holder for terror in the middle east. He holds the franchise for several Islamic groups most notibly Iranian based groups.

When Arafat goes to his toasty reward the lid will come off. I expect to see chaos on a large scale that will end only when one big, mean SOB gains power. The US can loft anyone they want, but in the final analysis the terror franchise owners will decide.

BTW, Israel ought to just STHU about removing Arafat. The goober will die sooner than later. Israel will be blamed. No sense making the situation worse with meaningless verbage.
 
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