Bulk copper and lead prices

[No4Mk1*]

Copper and lead prices spiked in 2007 and are essentially unchanged since. Therefore 2007-2012 ammo prices should return as ultimately supply will catch up to demand. Fuel is similar to 2012 prices. Looking back i am predicting brass cased 9mm to be about $11/50 and brass cased 223 to be near $6/20 based on cost to manufacture.

If you NEED ammo to shoot i understand purchasing above these prices, but now is not the time to stockpile! No ammo ban is going to happen anytime soon on a federal level. Leave the ammo for those in states attempting to restrict it.

Just trying to inject some sanity here.

 

[AlbertH]

#1 scrap copper is currently 3 1/2 bucks and up a pound and pretty much been that way for over a year now. Range lead is over 70 cents a pound up from 35 cents last October.
If the current demand for ammo keeps up those lead prices will be there for a long while. As far as copper goes, regardless of how many may feel otherwise, the economy and construction are picking up so the demand for copper will continue to increase and my best guess is that copper prices will remain at 3+ buck level for a while.

Then you figure in increased manufacturing and transport which use fuel, the days of the 11 for 50 of 9mm are just like a basebell being hit out of the stadium.. LONG GONE!

 

[oneounceload]

There is an increased demand from China and India for cars - millions of them - and they all need batteries - lead acid batteries, so do not expect lead to drop any time soon. Copper and brass are also in high demend

 

[lykoris]

tell that to the 85bn per month pomo the fed is running

 

[joeschmoe]

Prices to do business have gone up since then. Everything is more expensive. The cost to borrow, insure, labor, shipping, taxes, etc. The dollar is worth less than it was in 2007.
Prices will not return to 2007 levels any more than we will ever go back to nickel candy bars or $250/oz gold.

 

[Queen_of_Thunder]

Dear OP


Your conclusion on lead and copper prices are simply wrong.

Simply put there is a shortage of 154,000 tons of lead expected this year based on the demand for batterys.

Copper is becoming if not already on the verge of a shortage. That depends upon the status of copper in storage in the shadow market. Some say its just being stored while others say its being used to back a huge instrument.

 

[No4Mk1*]

Lead and copper prices peaked in early 2011 and have been lower ever since. I wouldn't mind the 2011 or 2012 prices that i quoted above. From the looks of the responses so far I guess I hold a contrarian viewpoint about the future. Time will tell....

 

[joeschmoe]

Copper and lead prices spiked in 2007 and are essentially unchanged since.

Lead and copper prices peaked in early 2011 and have been lower ever since.

These two posts contradict each other.

I wouldn't mind the 2011 or 2012 prices that i quoted above. From the looks of the responses so far I guess I hold a contrarian viewpoint about the future. Time will tell.......

I wouldn't mind the 2011 or 2012 prices that i quoted above. From the looks of the responses so far I guess I hold a contrarian viewpoint about the future. Time will tell... .

You have yet to explain why you hold this theory, other than "wish". Manufacturing costs are far more complicated than just raw material price. If you look at the tiny percentage of the raw lead and copper price of a box of ammo compared to the final price should give you an idea of how important the other factors are.

 

[No4Mk1*]

If you look at a 10 year chart you will understand the 2007 "spike" and 2011 "peak" terminology.
Unfortunately you have a point about manufacturing cost but i don't know how to examine historic manufacturing costs. I just cant imagine manufacturing cost went up so much in 2 years since 2011

If I use the pre panic price of a Glock or AR-15 as a yardstick I would say manufacturing costs have not changed much in 5 - 10 years.

 

[baz]

Prices will be what they they will be. The controlling factor is supply. If ammo eventually returns to the store shelves and online vendors, price will depend on why supply returned. If it returns because the bubble of panic buying bursts, then prices will fall. But if it returns because production has ramped up to meet demand, then prices could remain high. But most likely, some of both will take place: demand will ease and production will increase. In that case, expect prices to fall, though not back to where they were before the latest panic. We're probably in for a new norm, somewhere between where we are now, and where we were a year ago, as far as prices are concerned, once supply stabilizes to meet demand.

 

[oneounceload]

Sorry dude, but you are not up to speed on worldwide demand for both lead and copper. Citing stats from 5 years ago has NO bearing on today's demand. What YOU cant imagine doesn't mean it hasn't occurred. It has, and it isn't going to stop.

 

[Nwflycaster]

Lead pricis peaked much earlier than either 2007 or 2011. I would have to go back in my records to be sure but I think it was more like late 2001 or early2002 when the LME on lead peaked not much under two bucks a pound.

Now lead has been hanging around the one dollar mark these days, but there is now also a premium on lead that there never used to be amounting to approximately another twenty cents per pound. This is steming from the recyclers paying high prices for scrap batteries.

You won't be able to touch these prices retail, that will be more like $1.80 per pound for pure lead in five pound bars. I purchased about 94,000 pounds last month and paid an average of 1.22 Lb for the 60 pound ingots.

For bullet alloys you can figure on tin content to add $0.15 for each percentage point and antimony to add $0.12 per percentage point. So for say a Lyman No. 2 you would be $1.80 x 90% plus $15.00 x 5% plus $12.00 x 5% making the alloy $2.97 Lb