Can anything really pass?

[Buck13]

Diane Feinstein can flap her mouth until she passes out, but that doesn't matter if a bill doesn't pass the Senate AND the House.

In 1994, the Democratic party had a majority in the Senate and a BIG majority in the House. In the next Congress, the Republican party will have a 33 vote lead in the House. On average, House Rs are portrayed as being MORE conservative now, due to the Tea Party faction's influence and gerrymandering safer districts.

That doesn't mean there aren't still swing districts, of course. I live in WA, where the suburban 4th District is held by a moderate R who I'll guess might vote "yes," and at least a couple of the substantially rural districts are currently held by Ds who would probably worry about their re-election if they voted "yes." On balance, I would bet the vote count from the WA House delegation would be essentially the same as the D/R split.

Assume the Senate will vote "yes." I'd bet Jon Tester (D-Montana) would vote "no," but are there other Ds who would join him?

Assuming every House D votes for a ban bill, will over 30 Rs do so? Are there House Ds who you have reason to believe will vote "no?"

 

[Skribs]

Buck, keep in mind that WA State has some pretty good gun laws despite being a Dem state.

 

[velojym]

No telling, I guess it depends on how many crazies they can mobilize to shoot up more innocents, for to better play on the heartstrings of folks who'd otherwise be on the fence.

 

[Skribs]

No telling, I guess it depends on how many crazies they can mobilize to shoot up more innocents, for to better play on the heartstrings of folks who'd otherwise be on the fence.

I'm sorry, I'm out of tin foil. Will wax paper or plastic wrap suffice to make a hat?

 

[velojym]

I'm sorry, I'm out of tin foil. Will wax paper or plastic wrap suffice to make a hat?

I'd use felt or leather, myself. Well done, it'll keep off the sun and rain, and once broken in properly, will be pretty comfortable. Tinfoil would just look funny.

 

[cfullgraf]

In 1994, the Democratic party had a majority in the Senate and a BIG majority in the House. In the next Congress, the Republican party will have a 33 vote lead in the House. On average, House Rs are portrayed as being MORE conservative now, due to the Tea Party faction's influence and gerrymandering safer districts.

Just like the AWB '94 killed the Democratic majority in Congress in the 1996 elections, the current flap over taxes and spending could torpedo the Republican lead in the House in 2014.

The Republicans need to get their heads out the sand and wake the TEA Party extremists.

 

[Buck13]

Yeah, I'm fine with WA's gun laws. My question is, can an AWB bill pass the US House?

 

[jmr40]

I think there will be some laws passed that we don't like. I don't think the sky is falling. There may well be enough support to limit magazine capacity, but no one says it has to be 10 rounds. It could well be 15 or 20 this time so as to not really have an effect on most handguns.

I think the big push will be to limit who can buy guns in an effort to keep them away from people we all agree shoudn't have them. I wouldn't be surprised to see mandatory background checks on private sales. No idea how you enforce that.

I believe another push will be to suck money from us. I can see them pushing fees and taxes on gun ownership much like the yearly fees many pay on car ownership. It is just like cigarettes. The govt. talks about how bad they are, but won't make them illegal because they get too much tax revenue from their sales. They will try the same with guns.

This is a good time to force some concessions we want if the NRA and pro gun politicians play it right. I can see requiring something similar to a CCW permit to purchase "assault weapons", but then forcing all states to honor a CCW permit fom other states just like they do with drivers licenses.

 

[Skribs]

The good news is a 20-round limit wouldn't affect me. Currently I own compact pistols and tube-fed shotguns, and when I do get an AR I only want to use the 20-round magazines anyway (since the magazine is what will really bump up the OA height of the weapon).

That said, I think the limit should be infinity.

 

[Buck13]

I don't think anyone writing the legislation will be interested in what gun owners want or why, unless some pro-gun Congress-critters try to run a competing bill.

If I was choosing a limit, I'd want it to be at least 17 rounds, since many full-sized duty pistols hold that in the grip. A 12 round limit would at least allow most compact pistols to continue with their "natural" capacity, so I'd consider that a "logical" limit.

What I've been hearing on the news is not based on any such functional limit, but simply "reinstating the AWB," which would mean the arbitrary 10 rounds. The only good thing about that is that it is CA's current law, so most guns should already have 10 round mags available.

 

[gbran]

We may or may get something from the feds, but it will be pretty minor and very difficult to pass.

The states is where I expect to see some onerous new laws. CA especially.

 

[Balrog]

What do you think Boehner and the Republicans will do if Obama offers a deal whereby he won't push for tax increases on anyone making less than $1 million in return for a new Assault Weapon Ban?

 

[Plan2Live]

In case anyone missed it, the last election proved that there has been a decided shift to the left in the thinking of the "average" American so the climate is ripe for something to pass. But, "It" doesn't have to pass Congress. "It" can come through Executive Order or by the Pres signing the UN Small Arms Treaty. Even if the treaty doesn't get ratified by Congress a sitting president can choose to enforce the provisions ala Jimmy Carter and the SALT treaty. And let's not forget taxation. Affordable Health Care was challenged and upheld under the premise that it was simply an unfair tax. Legislation through taxation was upheld by the Supreme Court as a legitimate tactic.

So yes, I think something that will adversely effect us pro gun folks is coming.