CCW Predictions for 2003

[Gray Peterson]

I've been doing some observation of the situations in many states where activists are fighting for CCW in their states, mostly in areas where CCW is not even allowed. Here's some of my predictions for 2003:

Minnesota: The Personal Protection Act in MN is pretty much a slam dunk. The election of a new Governor, and the defeat of the biggest CCW obstructionist, Roger Moe, as well as several big wins in the state Senate, makes the act a sure thing for next year. The PPA has full recognition of out of state CCW permits (a la Indiana and Kentucky).

Wisconsin: Yes, Tommy Doyle won the governorship over Governor Scott McCallum. Tommy Doyle is an extreme anti-gunner. However, his problem is that both houses of the Legislature now has enough votes to override a veto of the CCW law. Also, no governor has ever had his veto overriden by the Legislature since Tommy Thompson started his first term, so it's possible that he may not veto it to avoid possible embarassment. The PPA there also has full recognition.

Ohio: This will be a interesting fight to watch. After what happened in the Senate, here's what I believe will happen: The Senate will no longer try to compromise with Governor Taft. Despite attempts to placate him and gain his support, he refused to do so even after gutting the CCW legislation until it was utterly useless, including forcing CCW holders to lock up their guns and make it inaccesible in their car, because the state cops organizations are afraid that CCW holders will kill cops (which has NEVER happened). Needless to say, the House Speaker, and even the Senate's republican leadership, are very pissed at Taft. It's very likely that they will both pass CCW without any imput from Governor Taft or the state cops organizations, and override the veto if Taft does it. It's very likely that CCW will be one of the first things on the agenda in both Houses, and will probably move quickly. The PPA there has full recognition of out of state permits.

Missouri: Many had written off Missouri until a new Governor, who's extremely unpopular right now and an opponent of CCW, until 2004. Now, a change of leadership in the Missouri Senate, as well as a strengthening of pro-gun majorities in both Houses, could be enough for a veto override. Watch this one close, folks. This state's PPA also features full CCW reocognition.

That's it, folks. That's my take. Any thoughts?

 

[Al in Md]

Maryland: No way Al in Md

 

[Blackhawk]

Your survey may be a bit rose colored, but that's fine with me!

The key, IMO, is what the voters said during the election. Smart pols will analyze and reanalyze. And I believe those analyses will tend to support your suppositions.

Good work!

 

[TheBluesMan]

I think you're very close to the mark regarding Ohio, Lon. At least I hope so...

I'm still unsure that the General Assembly will summon the courage required to override a Taft veto, but perhaps I'm selling them short. One thing that I *do* know... CCW reform will be very high on the priorities for the GA this year. I figure that it will have a two-digit bill number this time, maybe even single-digit.

Wouldn't you love to see HB1 and SB1 be CCW bills?!!!

 

[Gray Peterson]

Originally posted by TheBluesMan
I think you're very close to the mark regarding Ohio, Lon. At least I hope so...

I'm still unsure that the General Assembly will summon the courage required to override a Taft veto, but perhaps I'm selling them short. One thing that I *do* know... CCW reform will be very high on the priorities for the GA this year. I figure that it will have a two-digit bill number this time, maybe even single-digit.

Wouldn't you love to see HB1 and SB1 be CCW bills?!!!

I think that's the plan. Remember, Taft continually kept raising the bar. He put down requirements, gave indications he would support it without LEO group support, but Taft acted like a person who was tormenting a rabbit by hanging a carrot on a stick, and continually pulling it up every time the rabbit tried to reach it. The rabbit, in this case, was the General Assembly and supporters of HB274.

Next year, I hope the rabbit beats the tormentor over the head and takes the carrot, chews a piece, and spit it in Taft's face.

 

[44Brent]

Let me post my own prediction:

I am planning to organize a lawsuit against the State of Illinois for violations of Article IV, sections 1&2 of the U.S. Constitution, for Illinois' refusal to honor out-of-state licenses.

 

[Robert inOregon]

I'll predict that the new 50-50 split in the Oregon senate will embolden Dumber-crats into attacking Oregon CHL holders. They will make another run at expelling us from schools or anywhere else children congregate. And no more booze and carry. We'll no longer be allowed to carry at bars, restaurants or anywhere that serves alcohol.

I expect every Democrat in a state legislature across the country to make continual attacks at our gun rights in attempt to redefine the California run democratic party. Next two years is going to be very a very bumpy ride.

 

[Gray Peterson]

Originally posted by Robert inOregon
I'll predict that the new 50-50 split in the Oregon senate will embolden Dumber-crats into attacking Oregon CHL holders. They will make another run at expelling us from schools or anywhere else children congregate. And no more booze and carry. We'll no longer be allowed to carry at bars, restaurants or anywhere that serves alcohol.

I expect every Democrat in a state legislature across the country to make continual attacks at our gun rights in attempt to redefine the California run democratic party. Next two years is going to be very a very bumpy ride.

Of course the Democrats are going to attack. That's what they always do. You think the House will stand for it? You think Oregon Firearms Federation and the Portland Pink Pistols will just sit down and take it? Of course not.

We have an advantage in Oregon that most other CCW states don't have: We have the higher ground. There is almost no restrictions on where to carry.

In places like South Carolina, Florida, and Virginia, getting rid of restrictions is very difficult because we have to justify why us pro-gun folk want to remove it. Since they have no history of being able to carry in schools under the shall-issue programs in their states, they have an uphill battle.

In Oregon, it's the opposite. Oregon CHL licenses have been shall-issue for the last 13 years. There have been almost no restrictions on permits. The Democrats cannot justify adding restrictions on where permit holders can carry without totally fabricating and distorting things to the point it looks totally ridiculous even to many Democrats. "Oh, CHL holders will shoot innocent kids if we continue to allow them to carry in schools", or "CHL holders will shoot politicians and cops if we allow them to carry in government buildings".

It's been 13 years. We have the higher ground. Be on our guard, be vicious, and do everything possible to destroy their arguments. They won't win unless we let them.

 

[PATH]

I predict that we must soldier on as the assault upon our rights is never ending!

 

[GhostShooter]

I wish I had your optimism for Ohio. I think that the House will pass a bill similar to HB 274 again but the senate will not put Taft in a position where he has to veto it (they will create another disaster in committee that is unacceptable to the house). I think the way things are now, we're going to have to let this be decided by the OSC and I have no idea how they're going to rule.

 

[Gray Peterson]

Originally posted by GhostShooter
I wish I had your optimism for Ohio. I think that the House will pass a bill similar to HB 274 again but the senate will not put Taft in a position where he has to veto it (they will create another disaster in committee that is unacceptable to the house). I think the way things are now, we're going to have to let this be decided by the OSC and I have no idea how they're going to rule.

Are you SURE about that? Considering the Senate gutted it until it was nearly useless, the Senators knew about it, and ultimately, Taft never gave his "approval" to the legislation, I don't believe the Senate will listen to his "advice" anymore. My understanding was that the governor's staff basically went to them, and asked the Senate to add more stuff to it to get it's approval. They did so. Taft's staff asked for MORE concessions to get his approval. They did it, and on and on and on. Even the gutted piece of crap bill that the Senate passed didn't get Taft's approval. So what makes you think the Senate will listen to the Governor next year? Remember also that much of the Senate leadership is being swept out by term limits.

 

[GhostShooter]

I believe they will listen to groups such as the FOP and OSHP in trying to gain their support of a bill since they know now that Taft will veto it anyway. I believe they will want to have the appearance of "working with Ohio's LEO" in trying to make a "safe and effective" CCW bill. As for some being forced out for term limits I'm not sure how this is going to effect it. We'll just have to wait and see.

P.S.
I guess to explain my position better. I don't believe that the Senate actually wants a "good" CCW bill. They just don't want to take to much flack from either side. Look at how many of them voted for that disaster of a bill the Senate committee passed this time.

 

[clange]

I hope you're right about MO. Pissed me off to no end when holden beat talent for governor (amid voter fraud and other crooked crap the Democrats pulled, same as they did for prop B).

 

[Missouri Mule]

As a Missouri resident I hope Kenny Hulshoff does run for Gov in '04.
I will vote for him!!!!
He may still be a politician but so far he smells much better than what he will replace!!!

 

[cobb]

Originally posted by Lonnie Wilson
Minnesota: The Personal Protection Act in MN is pretty much a slam dunk.

I hope your right. I have been involved with CCRN in Minnesota, and active in other ways to try and get this passed for years, and I mean the shall issue, not some watered down crap.

 

[El Tejon]

Lonnie, thanks for the heads up. That's great news for Minnn-uhhh-sooo-tah! Lot better than I had originally thought.

Good luck in Ohio. Keep at them.

 

[Aces]

Ohio CCW

I just got a letter from Tom Brinkman, who's not my rep. but was the one who introduced H.B.225 last year.That was the Vermont bill that vanished almost as soon as it was introduced.He says he will reintroduce it in Jan. Of course I'd love to see it,but that has about as much chance of passing as the proverbial snowball in you know where.

 

[Monkeyleg]

The Wisconsin guv-to-be is Jim Doyle.

But we do have a real chance here of getting CCW passed in spite of Doyle. Two senate Democrats have taken cabinet positions, which leaves the Republicans with an 18-13 majority until special elections in May. That makes 21 the veto-proof majority number for the senate. One of the Democrats seeking to run for one of the vacant senate seats voted for CCW in the assembly last February. And we've got a handful more who have said they're for it.

The big questions are whether some Democrats will go against their own governor, whether the Republicans will be willing to horse-trade on CCW in exchange for some budget issues, and whether Doyle will just roll over or make a big stink about it. Much depends upon the decision that will be handed down by the state supreme court in the next few months.