Decline in violent crime rate

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Dr_2_B

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We second amendment guys attribute the fall in violent crime in America to increased CCW issuance. But in the interest of objectivity, I'm interested in knowing what else you might attribute this to.

In the chart, black refers to male crime, light blue refers to female, and the gray refers to the median. Numbers on the left column refer to incidence per 1000 people

source is bureau of justice statistics
http://www.swivel.com/graphs/show/23182013
 

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Two words.........................Chuck Norris.



Seriously though, I think technology has a role in it. With DNA testing, and certainly in the last fifteen years with the speed at which information can be sent everywhere and with the increase in cameras etc. , I think more people realize that they may get caught.
 
It could be the ccw thing. Or it could be the fact that more rappers have been speaking out against violence.
 
Although Lott has made a case for, More firearms and Less crime . Their is also a case for pro choice crowd , fewer unwanted people.
Since we cant put people in a jar and experiment with them , (as much as we might want to) , I am going to guess people are becoming generally wealthier and less likely to want to spend time in prison .
 
Yes, something many gun people fail to understand is that correlation does not necessarily indicate causation.

The same gun crowd that might attribute this fall to CCW also attributed the fail in crime in Texas in 1996 to Texas CHLs, although they failed to account for the trend in the 3 or so years before that where crime in Texas fell or why crime fell in New York, Mass., and Illinois as well in 1996.

Strange how this chart shows crime climbing in the early to mid 90s when it was reported to be falling by other sources. In fact, the FBI has the violent crime rate declining since a high in 1991. http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/05cius/data/table_01.html
 
Better police work in terms of community policing (prevention) and better technology for solving crimes afterward. The training police have today is generally very good compared to thirty or forty years ago.

Also: More incarcerated felons. We have locked up an enormous number of people who would be committing crimes otherwise.
 
The increasing prevalence of cell phones during the same period may also have contributed to the decline of some types of violent crime.
 
Violent crime rate is inversely proportional to the economic health of these here United States. As our economy has grown, crime drops. We'll see how this changes if our economy tanks because of the subPrime mess and more people lose homes and jobs.

Also, gang on gang violence has dropped drastically thanks to the work of cities and law enforcement agencies, crack cocaine violence peaked in the mid-1990s.
 
As mentioned previously, I believe a major cause is the fact that people now realize how much more difficult it is to get away with a crime. We have forensics technology today that would be unthinkable twenty years ago. Not only does this technology solve crime, but it arguably deters it as well.

Also, in recent years the general population has become increasingly more aware of this technology, especially on television with shows such as Law and Order and CSI.
 
On a smaller scale, such as in certain cities, I think you could easily correlate a relationship between affluence and crime. Generally speaking crime of all kinds is lower among affluent communities. The graph represents nationwide statistics; might a case be made for a correlation to increasing housing prices? It's generally accepted among economists that increasing real estate prices made homeowners feel wealthier. Steadily increasing real estate prices encouraged "creative" mortgage products, permitting the less affluent to become homeowners, all of which arguably contributed to a virtuous cycle of increased spending, consumption, and economic growth.

It's now evident that cycle's momentum has slowed. I hope it doesn't happen, but if there is an economic recession hastened by mortgage defaults and/or declines in real property values in the near future, there might be a reversal of the declining crime rates we've seen for the past 10-15 years.

When I lived in NJ a state trooper gave a presentation to our community group in which he pointed out that crime in our neighborhood was almost unheard of since it was generally known (to criminals seeking easy prey) that most homeowners there kept guns in their homes. However, I should also point out our neighborhood was a relatively affluent one.

I believe the prevalence of CCW is a contributing factor to lower crime rates, but at best it's only one factor. You can't, for instance, correlate radically lower crime rates in New York City over the past 20 years with CCW since that right is effectively denied. Newark, NJ, Washington DC and Chicago are supposedly gun-free zones but violent crime in those cities is rampant. I don't think anyone would consider those cities nearly as affluent as NYC though.

There's almost certainly a relationship between affluence and gun ownership also. It could be argued that guns are purchased with discretionary income. No discretionary income, no guns. Therefore affluence, lawful gun ownership, and crime are probably all related.

As always correlation is not equal to causation.
 
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Many, many reasons. CCW likely plays a small part in it, but there are myriad other factors. I'd even wager than Americans have generally been a bit kinder to each other post-9/11 with a stronger sense of comradery/unity.
 
All good points. I think technology is a big part, with the average person being on camera several times a day and the technology to locate cell phones down to a certain area @ a certain time alot of people are thinking twice before acting in a way they normally would. Real TV, Cops, CSI, and other TV shows probably work pretty well as a scare tactic to some criminals as well.

People can condemn themselves by using the internet do a search for such things as "best way to clean up blood", "burning human remains", or whatever crap they might look into for covering up a crime. Technology goes on and on with things like DNA testing and special lighting to search for blood, semen, etc. Alot of folks are going to think twice about doing something that could put them behind bars for several years or even life.

Society and the quality of living improving has alot to do with it too. We all know the worst seems to come out in most people when it's SHTF time (looters, rapes, etc.).

I would also agree that CCW has a small part to do with it but nothing that significant to raise any attention to it.
 
In addition to causes other posters have suggested there is also the crack epidemic, which ended in the early '90s as crack began to go out of style. Tougher sentencing for career criminals may also have had a hand in it as well.
 
What caused Reduced Crime Rates beginning in the early 90's????

Cheap, and readily available abortions available to the culturally and economically disadvantaged beginning in the mid 70's.
 
I think it's the amazing influence of Brittany Spear's music on the culture. It's kind of like a second Renaissance... people are much more enlightened since the original release of "Hit me baby..." :)

Seriously, I do believe the CCW increase has had an effect, but there is no way it's the only factor...
 
It's not guns.....they are irrelevant

Gun laws...those that restrict the availability of guns and those that make them more readily available such as few purchase restrictions and concealed carry laws have almost no effect on the crime rate.

The crime rate is mainly a result of the number of males aged 14 to 27 in a given population. There are many other more complex socio-economic factors, but guns don't really figure into it.

The great majority of people in the US live in a relatively crime free environment.The crime rate in most areas is greatly skewed by certain neighborhoods and districts where a large number of people live a criminal lifestyle. If could wave a magic wand and eliminate guns from the world, there would still be violence in these areas. And if you issued everyone who lives in these areas a 1911, 3 magazines and 100 rounds of ammo and required them to carry it everywhere, the crime rate would not change either.

We need to stop looking at guns as either the cause or the solution to the crime problem and start looking at real solutions. It's going to take a long time to undo 40+ years of the Great Society and rebuild the family structure that it dismantled. It's going to take the American people waking up and recognizing that the war on drugs is as futile as prohibition was and bring an end to it. It's going to take political leadership in our cities that is appropriate for a large American city and not more appropriate in sub-Saharan Africa. But as long as we keep doing the things we're doing, it's not going to change.
 
Abortions

Werewolf and jibraun hit the nail on the head. Unwanted childern turn out to be criminals in larger numbers than planned or wanted kids. All the terminated kids from the late 70s would have been in their 20s when the crime rates started down.
 
Fewer young men (and women) in the 16-35ish range = less violent crime.
Click to expand...

Strangely enough the latest studies show that more crime is being done by older people, especially drug offenses, drink driving and so on. Its much more prevalent in the 30s-50s than the teens-30s crowd. The babyboomer crowd is the biggest trouble of all.
 
Can you point me to that study? It not only goes against everything I've read, but it also goes against my personal experience as a police officer.

Jeff
 
P5 Guy said: Unwanted childern turn out to be criminals in larger numbers than planned or wanted kids.
Click to expand...
That's one of the why my wife and I want to have as many baby's as we can. We want to raise them right. They all get guns at thirteen.
 
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