you asked for it!
I believe the advise posted by the "naked prophet," (what a pseudonym; even John the Baptist wore animal skins!), ...is good to consider.
Some rounds are designed and manufactured to provide "rapid expansion," while others "controlled expansion."
If you can find the gelatin tests for your particular round you may be able to determine from observation whether your round abruptly expands or gradually expands as it penetrates. This phenomenon corresponds with the "wound volume" data that sometimes accompany the gel testing. A large volume being indicative of early and rapid expansion.
The final expanded diameter can be misleading. Wound vol. and gel block observation are a better predictor of performance than the penetration ratings often.
Gelatin being of uniform density; however, bullets often strike bone, etc. initially.
The projectile property called " sectional density" is a far better "index;" that is, an abstract mathematical rating for comparison, than penetration of gel is.
If you are familiar with the rifle rounds of the 6.5 "Swede" or even the ubiquitous 30-06 round; they are examples of sectional density effect on projectile penetration. (Perhaps this phenomenon accounts for the comparisons between the 45 ACP and the 357 mgn; if both rounds expand to consume half their length, then the 357 will have a greater length remaining than the 45 to provide the sectional density needed to maintain traveling velocity? Perhaps.)
The 45 slug at approximately 45/100 of an inch cross section would provide you with a multiplying factor of 1.4 in favor of the 230 gn round over the 165 one -both unexpanded. For this example neither weight nor cross sectional area have changed. S.D. is simply the bullet weight or mass (I forget which), divided by it's cross sectional area. Ballisticians and mathematicians please help!
However, expand the 165 gn round to approx. 65 caliber for example, and now you have decreased the sectional density of that round; by increasing the diameter, by a factor of approx. 2.9! This conjecture presumes little or no loss of bullet mass such as jacket seperation. The kinetic energy is mostly consumed in the expansion work, and when rounds expand, and they lose that sectional density to the degree these would, then the "brakes are on." It is in effect a dynamic transitional change that occurs. The higer velocity is used up rapidly. A bullet that expands rapidly but penetrates partially may not have the trauma effect you desire.
Kinetic energy being a measure of work; the upset or musrooming of the bullet head. The round comes to an abrupt stop. Sometimes short of the vital organs you intended to perforate.
What to rely on, or make an educated judgement upon then?
I look for the heavier rounds, and ones that are specifically designed and manufactured for that "controlled expansion." Particularly in handgun rounds.