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Election Predictions

Discussion in 'Legal' started by patentmike, Oct 28, 2004.

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  1. patentmike

    patentmike Member

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    Polls, news, experts. Humbug.
    Let's just call it now and see if THR can predict the results.

    I'm thinking that the media outlets see it as a close race because of their bias, and because it's in their financial interests to keep the "story" exciting. Remember Mondale?

    I say Bush 59%, Kerry 40%, Nader/other 1%
     
  2. davec

    davec Member

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    Kerry - 295
    Bush - 243

    [​IMG]

    Just like 1960, Kerry wins a very narrow popular vote, but a decent sized EC lead because of slim victories in Ohio and Flordia
     
    Last edited: Oct 31, 2004
  3. Bartholomew Roberts

    Bartholomew Roberts Moderator Emeritus

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    davec, whatever you are drinking save some for me to celebrate a Bush victory Tuesday ;)

    Bush 51%
    Kerry 48%

    Bush takes both Florida and Ohio and probably 2-3 states that went Gore last time.

    Senate Republicans pick up at least 3 seats
    House Republicans pick up 5-6 seats
     
  4. bcbr

    bcbr Member

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    election

    skerry,no numbers.
    Boston wins so does skerry someone told me that,the commies are to entreched , to much fraud and there is not enough real accountability for a real election. I went to vote last election early and our poll had no ballots at all.
    Both sides are a joke,there seems to be no controlling authority,and I donot believe algore won the popular vote last time.
    I read that the netwoks own the voting /counting system cbs,nbc,cnn,abc.
    If they do any body they want gits in.
     
  5. Ktulu

    Ktulu Member

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    The election will not be as close as the media and the polls would have us believe. Bush will win by a good margin.
     
  6. bcbr

    bcbr Member

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  7. bcbr

    bcbr Member

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    Will not link .
    Ask jeeves.com,then Voter news reporting service, then hit search.
     
  8. Lone_Gunman

    Lone_Gunman Member

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    I think Bush is going to win by several points.

    I don't think it will be as close as 2000
     
  9. davek13

    davek13 Member

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    I'm going to predict Kerry.

    It has become both acceptable and possible for the voting population to vote themselves compensation from the government. And don't think the pols don't play to that. Look how Bush has bragged about removing voters from the tax rolls.

    Combine that "give me" attitude with the intense Bush-hating, the unchallenged lies by Kerry, and the complicity of the mass media in Kerry's campaign and I don't see how Bush is faring as well as he is.

    I wish I were a little more optimistic and I would welcome a Bush victory, but I don't see it coming.

    davek13 in Georgia
     
  10. bobs1066

    bobs1066 Member

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    I'm thinking sKerry is going to go down in history as Dukakis Deux.
     
  11. riverdog

    riverdog Member

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    Fortunately, the Red Sox won in 4 straight so the parties will be over by election day. The series will be old news by Tuesday -- sorta like explosives missing in Iraq :rolleyes: BFD Like the IAEA's little tags can stop Russian transport tropps from moving stuff to Syria. But I digress. Bush 52% -- Kerry <48% Some states will surpirse come Tuesday.
     
  12. Sulaco

    Sulaco Member

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    Bush because he will win Florida. Ohio and one or two other swing states will decide it, but I feel certain Ohio will go Bush.
     
  13. 71Commander

    71Commander Member

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    I have no hunch. So there. Somebody sooth my uneasiness.:evil:
     
  14. Sergeant Bob

    Sergeant Bob Member

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    Bush, 54% to 46%.

    Based on sales of their halloween masks by the same margins. They say it's right every time.
     
  15. John Hicks

    John Hicks Member

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    Of course it all comes down to if the Redskins win this weekend.

    Win = Bush wins
    Loss = Bush loses

    Has happened since the 40's.

    But since I don't want to link sports and politics any more, I'll wager:

    Bush 52%, 290 EV
    Kerry 47% 248 EV

    House gets a bigger lead. Senate remains the same.

    I take this on faith, and it's not a religious one. Faith that myself times the number of people who agree with me can make a difference, because what I believe is right.

    I just hope I'm not too deluded :D

    jh
     
  16. Gary H

    Gary H Member

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    Stop with the percentages... They don't decide the election!

    Come on folks. Lets show that we know how the system works.

    Bush will win.. 287
     
  17. Black Dragon

    Black Dragon Member

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    I think (Hope) Bush wins, BUT (S)Kerry and his crew will keep it in the court
    system for the next two months with legal crap and recounts and whining
    and everything else you can think of. I think you are going to see some
    "people" problems in some of the more massive Dem cities like Chicago,
    New York, maybe Detroit. I don't think it's going to be country wide. Why
    do I think there are going to be "people" problems.

    A friends neighbors, who have lived next door to each other for 8 years got
    into a fist fight over the election. One was for (S)kerry and the other Bush.
     
  18. oldfart

    oldfart Member

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    My only prediction: It'll be over in five days--- except for the lawsuits!
     
  19. gunsmith

    gunsmith member

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    I will get down on my knee's and pray

    For a GW Bush victory,just like I did last time.
    I hardly ask for anything other then Gods will, but it's important this year.
     
  20. Rebar

    Rebar member

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    I think Ktulu is right, I think the polls are biased is most cases, and the rest aren't getting the real story because people aren't picking up the phone for pollsters. Plus a lot of people have only cell phones now.
     
  21. hillbilly

    hillbilly Member

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    Bush will have at least 300 electoral college votes.

    A whole passel of blue states like Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Hawaii, etc, will flip red this time.

    hillbilly
     
  22. R.H. Lee

    R.H. Lee Member

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    I think it will be surprisingly in favor of George Bush, but that won't stop Kerry from claiming victory and attempting to sue his way into the Whitehouse.
     
  23. tulsamal

    tulsamal Member

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    I know it comforts a lot of you to think that the press is biased toward the liberals and therefore everything they say is wrong. But there are plenty of conservative and "pro-Bush" groups out there doing polling in the swing states and even they say it is virtually a dead heat in FL and OH. Bush has to win at least one. If he loses FL he can only win by stealing several midwestern Gore states.

    Presidential election: too close to do anything but guess. My "gut feeling" is that Bush has too many enemies who will do anything to defeat him. Most of them don't even support Kerry himself but just want Bush gone. And that reminds ME of the 1980 election. The GOP had put forth RR who a lot of people thought was just too far to the right to be elected. But the last ten days of the campaign saw a growing rise of "we've had enough" against Carter. I suspect the constant barrage of bad news on the nightly news has cut into Bush's "middle of the road" voters. And I fear a majority of them are going to vote "against Bush." That's basically how Kerry has structured this campaign, as a referendum on the Bush Presidency. That might be all well and good if this was just a parlimentary vote of confidence but this time a vote against Bush means we get Kerry for President!

    Forced to bet my own money straight up, I would lean toward Kerry. My hopes will be with Bush.

    The Senate was one of my biggest worries a couple weeks ago. The polls were looking scary. I _really_ didn't want to give up the leadership there. Even more so if Kerry was going to win. But the polls are looking better now. I think the main thing to worry about now is a Kerry coattail effect. Will some of those "no more Bush" voters decide to vote against a Republican for Senate at the same time?

    The House is fine.

    Gregg

    (Believe me, I hope I'm wrong! And some "current event" could happen between now and Tuesday that sways that middle 5% the other way.)
     
  24. jefnvk

    jefnvk Member

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    Bush, under 290.

    Don't believe there will be a sweping landslide, but there will be a definite winner.

    I do find interesting what I hear about a tie, though. Someone at Harvard (I think) came up with a 3.25% chance of a tie at 269. In that case, odds showed Bush would win president in the House, and Edwards would win VP in the senate. Imagine that.
     
  25. tulsamal

    tulsamal Member

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    Since each state just gets one vote, obviously Bush would win by a massive amount. Big population states that favor Kerry like CA and NY would have as much say as Wyoming and Montana. And the GOP controls the House and Senate so I don't see how Edwards gets involved in this at all.

    Gregg
     
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