Finally We Know the "Truth": NYT

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fedlaw

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http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/23/opinion/23tue2.html

December 23, 2008
Editorial
Price of Lax Gun Laws

For years, the gun lobby has defeated new gun control laws partly by arguing that stronger laws do not deter crime. A study prepared by Mayors Against Illegal Guns, a bipartisan group headed by Mayor Michael Bloomberg of New York and Mayor Thomas Menino of Boston, should finally put that myth to rest.

The study analyzed trace data for guns used in connection with crimes during 2007. The data reveal a strong correlation between weak state gun laws and higher rates of in-state murders, police slayings and sales of guns used in crimes in other states.

Many states have enacted strong gun laws to supplement inadequate federal ones, including mandatory background checks on gun show sales. States requiring the same background checks at gun shows as those required for store purchases show an export rate for guns used in crimes that’s nearly half the national average. This argues for Congressional action to end the gun-show loophole nationally. States with weak gun laws produce different outcomes. More than half the guns recovered in out-of-state crimes last year were supplied by Georgia, Florida, Texas, Virginia and six other states where weak laws make it easy for gun traffickers and other criminals to obtain weapons.

Weak gun laws also put a state’s own citizens at risk. There were nearly 60 percent more gun murders in the 10 states where exports were highest than in the states with low export rates — and nearly three times as many fatal shootings of law enforcement officers.

The study by the mayors’ group isn’t the first to document the link between weak gun laws and gun violence or the “iron pipeline” by which guns flow from states with weak gun laws into states with strong ones. Still, the numbers are startling. They explain why the gun lobby resisted their release, and they provide a powerful retort to those who claim tougher gun laws don’t work.
 
We will have many more of those cooked "studies" and "surveys" and "polls" until President Obama is "reluctantly forced" to order total gun confiscation, as he wants to do anyway.

If that doesn't do the job we will see more mass murders as the gun control gang sets up the slaughter of more innocent people to promote their agenda.

Jim
 
"God created men equal, Col. Colt made them equal..."

This is the problem for folks like Bloomberg and his ilk.
 
I would like to see a copy of this report. i don't think it tells the whole truth. I think it was mark twain that said there are lies, damn lies and statistics.

While it seems to be true that there were more gun traces performed due to homicide in texas and florida than new york there could be a number of reasons for that. One reason could be if the police department didn't request a trace on every homicide and another did, or some other administrative reason. It also could be that gun traces in say new york were traced due to a possession violation and not a murder even though it was used in a murder. There are many ways the data could be slanted by the way it is reported.
 
We will have many more of those cooked "studies" and "surveys" and "polls" until President Obama is "reluctantly forced" to order total gun confiscation, as he wants to do anyway.
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And how do we know the study refered to in the original post is cooked? I haven't read it so I don't know one way or the other. When/if anyone reads it, we may have reasons to say this study is cooked.

"It disagrees with my belief" is not a reason.

"Everything Bloomberg and/or the NYT says is wrong" is not a reason.

"Bloomberg and/or the NYT have been wrong on this that and the other thing in the past, therefor they are wrong now" is not a reason either.
 
And how do we know the study refered to in the original post is cooked? I haven't read it so I don't know one way or the other. When/if anyone reads it, we may have reasons to say this study is cooked.
Click to expand...

All studies are "cooked" one direction or another or they would all agree with each other.

The only purpose of these things is to put spin on the argument, whether pro gun or anti gun.
 
I think the Rockefeller Drug Laws and police overtime ("collars for dollars") for quality of life offenses have done more, by putting more people in jail, to lower crime stats than anything else.

Every other crime in NYC involves guns, the laws have done nothing to reduce their numbers on the street.
 
well, considering the size of both NY's population and their freakishly huge police force, it makes sense.

One officer dead in a state like NY won't carry a weight compared to one officer dead in Virginia, where I'd venture to say has probably significantly less of a police force throughout the entire state than what New York has stationed in just NYC alone.

Simple numbers of (dis)proportion.
 
Mayors Against Illegal Guns = funded by the Joyce Foundation.... which also, funds VPC and some other major antigun groups. It is bi partisan in the sense that there are some antigun republicans <gasp>.

The "study" was not a real "study" but merely cherry picking stats provided by BATFE, which stats can be found here:

http://www.atf.gov/firearms/trace_data/index2007.htm

Ahhh... if I had the time and the space to pick that study apart... you will just have to settle for one...

One of the unstated conclusions of the study is that there is an active illegal gun trade going on in which guns are purchased in one locale for illegal transfer and illegal use in another locale. Thus we have this:

More than half the guns recovered in out-of-state crimes last year were supplied by Georgia, Florida, Texas, Virginia and six other states where weak laws make it easy for gun traffickers and other criminals to obtain weapons.
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What they fail to disclose is that the average time from original purchase to illegal use is ~10.3 years. Which leads one to conclude that this is either an incredibly complex group of gun runners who wharehouse these guns for an awfully long time before selling them to crooks, or that the unstated conclusion of this study is full of manure...
 
Chicago hits 500: obviously the fault of those pansy states with their weak gun laws: Chicago records year's 500th homicide

http://www.chicagobreakingnews.com/2...-the-year.html
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Well, and the interesting thing to note there, is you can jump on 80 Headed due west, right over into Indiana - and all those pesky IL laws are non-existent. I'm pretty sure that's the exact point of this study.
Having lived in North Western Indiana a good part of my life, it was a pretty commonly known fact that various elements from Chicago would come to Indiana to buy guns/ammo/whatever that they couldn't get in IL, or just to hopefully make their tracks harder to retrace.

well, considering the size of both NY's population and their freakishly huge police force, it makes sense.

One officer dead in a state like NY won't carry a weight compared to one officer dead in Virginia, where I'd venture to say has probably significantly less of a police force throughout the entire state than what New York has stationed in just NYC alone.

Simple numbers of (dis)proportion.
Click to expand...

Virginia's entire population is just over 7.7 million.
There's over 15 million people in NYC alone.

Yea - there's certainly something to be said for proportion alright. Apples? Oranges anyone?
 
I love how rather then people actually reading the report to see what it says - within minutes of even hearing about such a report - it's full on assault on the source instead.

Perhaps it is BS - perhaps it is cooked. Who knows. Certainly not a single person on here - cause I bet not one of you has bothered to even find a copy of this report yet - IF it's even been released to the public yet.
 
Brilliant! We'll fight illegal guns by... passing more laws! If the laws in place aren't being obeyed, we'll pass some new ones, which I'm sure will be obeyed! :rolleyes:
 
I read it Sinixstar. It is here:

http://www.mayorsagainstillegalguns....port_final.pdf

I stand by my critique...
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And in skimming through this real quick - what i'm seeing is that it says states with less strict gun laws tend to be origination points for guns used in crimes in other states.
What exactly is so amazingly outrageous about that? I'm surprised they even needed to do a study on this?
I mean - people have even joked about on here. "What good are these laws if you can drive across the border and get whatever you want?"

It's the same reason why there's a casino directly inside the Nevada border, along every highway that enters the state.

I mean, can you explain to me what's so amazingly outrageous about this? Aside from the fact that it's from the NYT and this Mayor's group - I don't really see much anyone can argue about. They're not talking about the level of violence within these states, they're talking about the export of guns from these states to commit crimes elsewhere.
 
Brilliant! We'll fight illegal guns by... passing more laws! If the laws in place aren't being obeyed, we'll pass some new ones, which I'm sure will be obeyed!
Click to expand...

Can you show me where for example - it was suggested that more laws be passed banning guns in NYC? I didn't exactly see that.
 
I mean, can you explain to me what's so amazingly outrageous about this? Aside from the fact that it's from the NYT and this Mayor's group - I don't really see much anyone can argue about.
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Nothing really amazing about that at all. Nor is it amazing that the resource states are usually close geographically to the use state. However, what is amazing is the conclusion which they whish you to adopt. Which is that there is an active illicit gun trade going on between the lax states and the strict states. They fail to reveal the time to crime data, which appears upon page 7 of their source, while pushing the data found upon page 6.

The data source is the BATFE link which I gave previously. Lets use NY as an example. Here is the BATFE data on NY:

http://www.atf.gov/firearms/trace_data/2007/newyork07.pdf

The primary data they use is found on page 6. Nowhere do they mention page 7, which shows that the average time to crime from original retail purchase to illegal use is 12.40 years for New York.... which kinda undercuts their thesis that there is an active "iron pipline" (their words) of illegal gun smuggeling.
 
They draw some interesting conclusions without bothering to support them, such as.

1. The provided statistics show that more guns (apparently) flow into strict-control states from less-strict states.
2. Gun shows are held in the less-strict states.
3. Therefore we need to close the so-called gun show loophole.

But nowhere do they show any viable evidence of a connection between the flow of firearms, and gun shows.

Incidentally, in Michigan a person purchasing a handgun from any source – a licensed dealer, private person or at a gun show – must have a police-issued purchase permit prior to the sale. Clearly they have more then closed the gun show loophole and then some – since around the middle 1930’s. But with this background being available there is no statistical evidence that this “prior permission” environment has had any noticeable success in reducing criminal access to firearms, or that an inordinate number of firearms recovered from criminals came from gun shows.

Nor do they ever, ever mention the BATF&E statistic concerning a lag of +/- 10 years between the tracing of a firearm vs. when it was originally sold in many cases.

I cannot and do not consider that this evidence, which runs counter to both their conclusions and agenda, was accidentally left out of their “fair and balanced” report. It is a typical gun control snow job.
 
Can you show me where for example - it was suggested that more laws be passed banning guns in NYC?
Click to expand...

Not sure if this answers your question... the group is advicating the following laws be adopted nationwide:

1.) Background Checks for All Handgun Sales at Gun Shows

2.) Purchase Permits for All Handgun Sales

3.) Mandatory Reporting of Lost or Stolen Guns to Law Enforcement

4.) Local Control of Firearms Regulations

5.)State Inspection of Gun Dealers

Those recommendations begin on pg 10 of the report. They do not seem to be advocating a ban on guns, unless you extrapolate 4. You might take a look at 4... they use some slight of hand to place California in the group of states that do not preempt local gun laws even though California does have such a law...
 
Total nonsense

What is so amazing is that anybody with half a brain would buy this stuff. It is becoming more and more clear to me that there really are a lot of very ignorant and naive people in this country.

Doesn't everyone know you need to consider the source, first of all.

And even if there was a correlation, correlation does not causation make.

Its going to be a long four years.

Shooter429
 
The primary data they use is found on page 6. Nowhere do they mention page 7, which shows that the average time to crime from original retail purchase to illegal use is 12.40 years for New York.... which kinda undercuts their thesis that there is an active "iron pipline" (their words) of illegal gun smuggeling.
Click to expand...

I think that's a little bit of a debatable point to make.
Here's why

When you look at the guns most commonly used in crimes, I believe the FBI statistics said the Lorcin .22 was the most common. Why is this? For the same reason that more criminals don't use AR-15s : cost. Not just up-front cost, but potential losses (being chased by the police and gotta toss your gun in a storm drain or off a bridge), and replacement costs (now that you ditched your gun, you need a new one).

That being said - used guns tend to be cheaper then new guns. I mean a new glock will run you $500 legally. Illegally could be as much as 4-5 times that.

Given these ideas - I don't think a 12 year "time to crime" rate is all that unreasonable. One piece of data that's missing from the BATFE report (at least I didn't see it) is "12 years" from what point? From the initial sale when the gun was new? From the last recorded sale? What? It does kind of make a difference.

At the end of the day though - the argument that they're making is that because of the lax laws, these guns are being had by criminals under circumstances completely unknown. Gun shows up on the street in NYC - it gets traced, and all anybody can come up with is "last we knew this was sold to a guy 12 years ago in Georgia". Completely defeats the purpose of tracing.

I think part of the problem - and this is certainly nothing against anyone here - is you're looking at it from the perspective of a law-abiding citizen. If you think like a criminal, and you look at these figures in the context of how a criminal can/will operate - they do make perfect sense. While you might think "12 years is a long time, kind of undercuts their argument" - it really doesn't. Age of the gun really means absolutely nothing. I mean, if you get shot in the head with a 12 year old 9mm, are you somehow going to be less dead then if it was bought last week? Didn't think so.
 
In "more guns less crime" and "transfer of wealth" a clear case is made for concealed carry in EVERY state because the violent crime almost instantly goes down when CCW is made "Shall issue" instead of "may issue"...These studies were done county by county instead of state by state and provide a far better measure of reality.

Too bad they won't use that study.

It doesn't take statistics to see the obvious right in front of our eyes....more guns does equal less crime.
 
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