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GOP Right Sees Lemons in White House Race
By: Jonathan Martin
January 30, 2007 08:17 AM EST
Contemplating the current field of Republican presidential candidates, Rush Limbaugh sounded like a man with malaise.
"To be honest with you, there's nobody out there that revs me up," he confessed to his audience of several million conservative sympathizers on his radio show last week, "so why should I pretend there is?"
What for much of the past year has been an undercurrent of grumbling on the right about the top tier of Republican contenders -- Sen. John McCain of Arizona, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani -- is lately on the rise in both frequency and volume. Limbaugh's sour note is the most striking of examples.
From consultants to bloggers to talk show hosts, there is a climate of suspicion -- at times bordering on contempt -- among conservative activists about their 2008 choices.
McCain is courting social and economic conservatives this year, but still faces grave doubts because of his past attacks on conservative religious leaders and his frequent willingness to make common cause with Democrats. Romney, who is positioning himself as the true conservative alternative, faces charges of opportunism because of his recent past as a social moderate. Giuliani's potential candidacy would test whether a leader with liberal views on abortion and gay rights could prosper in a party whose activists are steadfastly opposed to both.
Some activists see all three men failing the test. "The party is headed for the wilderness," complained conservative publicist Craig Shirley, author of a book on Ronald Reagan's insurgent 1976 campaign. "In some ways it's a victim of its own successes, but it's also been co-opted by folks from the inside with less than pure intentions: People who've come to party for power, money, access, celebrity."
Romney "is a question mark" who has "got problems because of his past," Shirley observed. As for McCain and Giuliani: "I don't know of any conservative who is excited about either one of them."
"I really feel strongly that if the slate is what we have now, then we're not going to win in 2008," added Erick Erickson, the founder of the influential blog, RedState. Erickson, who recently posted an entry about the GOP contenders titled "They All Suck," said in an interview that he's "not sure if there is a Republican out there who can win" the general election next year.
"Where do social conservatives go?" asked Dan Schnur, a California-based Republican consultant who worked for McCain in 2000 but is staying out of the 2008 contest. "They've been the determining force in the nomination process for a generation and they've got no candidate in the top tier."
Plenty of people are trying to prove Schnur wrong. McCain's advisers are betting that the disdain toward the Arizonan among many of the most vocal activists will not prove representative of primary voters. Running in a party that counts many Baptists, Romney may find a sympathetic audience for his story of conversion on social issues -- if he can convince people that he saw the light on the road to Damascus, not the White House.
Giuliani, who is the leading GOP contender in many polls, derives his national appeal largely from his record of cutting crime in New York, combined with his leadership amid the Sept. 11, 2001, terror attacks. But one can imagine the reaction among those on the, say, Pottawattamie County, Iowa, Republican committee when they're reminded by the media and Giuliani's opponents about his social views, or the fact that he once decamped from Gracie Mansion and moved in with a gay male couple and their pet Shih Tzu, Bonnie, while awaiting his second divorce.
There are many contenders in the second tier who would like to fancy themselves as conservative alternatives to the top trio. But even the lesser-known candidates have their flaws. Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback is trying to get to the right of Romney and emphasizes his cultural conservative bona fides. But for many in the base, his stance on immigration is unacceptable. And then there are those pesky quotes surfacing from his own past that tie him to the moderate wing of the Kansas GOP and raise questions about just how committed to the conservative movement he is.
Former Gov. Mike Huckabee of Arkansas, another dark horse, is a Baptist preacher by trade with unimpeachable social credentials. Yet Huckabee has already turned off many conservatives because he raised taxes as governor -- a cardinal sin in internal GOP politics.
The one candidate who does seem to be generating excitement among activists is also one who by all evidence will not run: Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush.
In separate interviews, two prominent Republican strategists in Washington used almost identical language to lament that the incumbent president's brother will spend 2008 on the sidelines.
"If his last name was 'Smith' instead of 'Bush,' Jeb would be the front-runner," said one. "If he were 'Jeb Smith' instead of 'Jeb Bush' he'd probably be at the top of the pack right now," said the other.
So, for the first time in decades, the GOP is left in unfamiliar uncertainty. The party that had a Nixon, Bush or Dole on every ticket for a half-century but one is now left with none of the above. Add in an unpopular war and unpopular president and it's clear why the editors of National Review included a question for a headline on the cover of their latest issue: "What Now?"
By: Jonathan Martin
January 30, 2007 08:17 AM EST
Contemplating the current field of Republican presidential candidates, Rush Limbaugh sounded like a man with malaise.
"To be honest with you, there's nobody out there that revs me up," he confessed to his audience of several million conservative sympathizers on his radio show last week, "so why should I pretend there is?"
What for much of the past year has been an undercurrent of grumbling on the right about the top tier of Republican contenders -- Sen. John McCain of Arizona, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani -- is lately on the rise in both frequency and volume. Limbaugh's sour note is the most striking of examples.
From consultants to bloggers to talk show hosts, there is a climate of suspicion -- at times bordering on contempt -- among conservative activists about their 2008 choices.
McCain is courting social and economic conservatives this year, but still faces grave doubts because of his past attacks on conservative religious leaders and his frequent willingness to make common cause with Democrats. Romney, who is positioning himself as the true conservative alternative, faces charges of opportunism because of his recent past as a social moderate. Giuliani's potential candidacy would test whether a leader with liberal views on abortion and gay rights could prosper in a party whose activists are steadfastly opposed to both.
Some activists see all three men failing the test. "The party is headed for the wilderness," complained conservative publicist Craig Shirley, author of a book on Ronald Reagan's insurgent 1976 campaign. "In some ways it's a victim of its own successes, but it's also been co-opted by folks from the inside with less than pure intentions: People who've come to party for power, money, access, celebrity."
Romney "is a question mark" who has "got problems because of his past," Shirley observed. As for McCain and Giuliani: "I don't know of any conservative who is excited about either one of them."
"I really feel strongly that if the slate is what we have now, then we're not going to win in 2008," added Erick Erickson, the founder of the influential blog, RedState. Erickson, who recently posted an entry about the GOP contenders titled "They All Suck," said in an interview that he's "not sure if there is a Republican out there who can win" the general election next year.
"Where do social conservatives go?" asked Dan Schnur, a California-based Republican consultant who worked for McCain in 2000 but is staying out of the 2008 contest. "They've been the determining force in the nomination process for a generation and they've got no candidate in the top tier."
Plenty of people are trying to prove Schnur wrong. McCain's advisers are betting that the disdain toward the Arizonan among many of the most vocal activists will not prove representative of primary voters. Running in a party that counts many Baptists, Romney may find a sympathetic audience for his story of conversion on social issues -- if he can convince people that he saw the light on the road to Damascus, not the White House.
Giuliani, who is the leading GOP contender in many polls, derives his national appeal largely from his record of cutting crime in New York, combined with his leadership amid the Sept. 11, 2001, terror attacks. But one can imagine the reaction among those on the, say, Pottawattamie County, Iowa, Republican committee when they're reminded by the media and Giuliani's opponents about his social views, or the fact that he once decamped from Gracie Mansion and moved in with a gay male couple and their pet Shih Tzu, Bonnie, while awaiting his second divorce.
There are many contenders in the second tier who would like to fancy themselves as conservative alternatives to the top trio. But even the lesser-known candidates have their flaws. Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback is trying to get to the right of Romney and emphasizes his cultural conservative bona fides. But for many in the base, his stance on immigration is unacceptable. And then there are those pesky quotes surfacing from his own past that tie him to the moderate wing of the Kansas GOP and raise questions about just how committed to the conservative movement he is.
Former Gov. Mike Huckabee of Arkansas, another dark horse, is a Baptist preacher by trade with unimpeachable social credentials. Yet Huckabee has already turned off many conservatives because he raised taxes as governor -- a cardinal sin in internal GOP politics.
The one candidate who does seem to be generating excitement among activists is also one who by all evidence will not run: Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush.
In separate interviews, two prominent Republican strategists in Washington used almost identical language to lament that the incumbent president's brother will spend 2008 on the sidelines.
"If his last name was 'Smith' instead of 'Bush,' Jeb would be the front-runner," said one. "If he were 'Jeb Smith' instead of 'Jeb Bush' he'd probably be at the top of the pack right now," said the other.
So, for the first time in decades, the GOP is left in unfamiliar uncertainty. The party that had a Nixon, Bush or Dole on every ticket for a half-century but one is now left with none of the above. Add in an unpopular war and unpopular president and it's clear why the editors of National Review included a question for a headline on the cover of their latest issue: "What Now?"
