RealGun
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Gun rating election analysis
I reviewed all of the 2006 election results for Congress and measured them against both GOA and NRA candidate ratings. The reason was both in response to claims that "many pro-gun Democrats won House seats" and a desire to have a sound basis for expecting significant change or pretty much status quo in federal gun legislation.
The following are some statistics and my conclusions:
Data:
- CNN election results, which included designation of incumbents
- (GOA) Gun Owners of America candidate ratings, as published in the 10/20/06 newsletter.
- (NRA-PVF) National Rifle Association Political Victory Fund candidate ratings from the website
Notes:
I believe there are still a few contested House seats.
Where I found GOA or NRA had no rating, I used whichever rating was available. Where both had rated a candidate, I found no noteworthy difference in how NRA and GOA had rated candidates with only a couple exceptions. Where there was a significant difference in ratings, I broke them out as "mixed" and will point them out.
There are only a couple candidates with B- to B+ ratings. I did not count them as necessarily pro-gun allies (A- to A+) but will point them out for consideration.
In Tennessee, Cohen (D) (rated B and B-) won the open seat over an independent with no rating (Ford (I)). The Republican was third. The seat is counted as won by a Democrat. Tennessee's 9th District covers Memphis, is the only district contained in one county, and is the State's only black majority district. The Republican named "White" did not do well at all :>). The independent named "Ford" was Harold Ford Jr.'s younger brother, who was running for the seat formerly held by both Harold Ford Sr. and Harold Ford Jr. The elder Ford was in a highly publicized race for US Senator, losing to the Republican (Corker), rated [A] by NRA-PVF and unrated by GOA. That was the open seat vacated by Frist. I noted that Tennessee's vote by race was astoundingly high in blacks voting for blacks but not at all noteworthy re whites avoiding black candidates. In any case, with Frist's replacement, Tennessee now appears well represented in Congress in regard to the RKBA.
NRA endorsed 1 Democrat, Lampson of TX
Statistics:
Category: Incumbents that lost - counted 22
Republican incumbents defeated by Democrats: 22
Of that number of Democrats 6 were rated [A] (27%). Sodrel (D-IN) was rated [D-] by GOA and [A] by NRA-PVF but is included in that count of 6 rated [A].
Of the Republicans (incumbents) defeated, 17 had NRA endorsements and 19 had A ratings (86%). Note that NRA did not endorse a candidate in every race.
Democratic incumbents defeated: [None].
Among those (D) incumbents, 16 had [A] ratings.
Most of the 22 Democrats defeating GOP incumbents had no ratings, which means they did not return questionnaires, have a State level record, or provide any useful information in regard to RKBA.
Indiana traded 3 A-rated Republicans for 3 A-rated Democrats.
New Hampshire lost 2 A-rated Republicans for 1 not rated and 1 C-rated Democrat. Note that New Hampshire has only two Representatives, so the State did a complete rollover from pro-gun Republican to very questionable Democrats. It is probably significant that neither of the two Republican Senators, Gregg and Sununu, were up for election in 2006, but Sununu may face a tough challenge in 2008. We could also see the House seats roll back to the GOP side based upon Sununu's strength as a three term House rep and one term Senator. Parenthetically, Sununu is rated B by GOA and would not likely clash with any pro-gun rated House candidate during a 2008 campaign in New Hampshire.
New York lost 2 A-rated Republicans for 1 F-rated and 1 unrated Democrat.
Pennsylvania traded 4 A-rated Republicans for 3 F-rated and 1 A-rated Democrat (Altmire). One has to wonder if the PA Senate race affected the outcome for House seats. The incumbent Republican Senator (Santorum) was upset by the Democrat (Casey), both of whom are rated well on RKBA support. The other possibility is that the State saw much more straight-ticket Democrat voting. Otherwise, the races stood on their own. That seems unlikely as a nationwide anomaly.
11 other States had one GOP incumbent upset, 3 of which were poorly rated in any case.
Category: Open seats - counted 33
Won by Republicans - 13
Won by Democrats - 20
Republican ratings:
A - 13
Democrat ratings:
A - 4
B- - 1
Mixed (c and A) - 1
Not rated - 3
F rated - 11 (a couple D ratings included)
Poorly rated or unrated Democrat winners (of open seats) versus losers:
Winners - 14 F or unrated
13 F rated Democrats over A rated Republicans, 9 of which (Republicans) were NRA-PVF endorsed. In total, I don't see any NRA based backlash, but the endorsement didn't seem to particularly lead to candidate success except perhaps on the Democrat side in a few races. Note that there were a few races where both Democratic and Republican candidates were rated A, races pretty much dominated by Democrats. I should do an actual review (count) to make much of that point.
Category: The Senate
Three proven A-rated Republican Senators were traded for three well-rated but unproven Democrats (Tester over Burns (MT) and Webb over Allen (VA)). Santorum's loss to Casey in PA was a race among pretty much equals in regard to RKBA, probably a C to A rating. Casey may prove to be better but is a junior Senator in a rabidly anti-gun, Democrat caucus. Casey was not rated by GOA but was rated A by NRA-PVF. Santorum was rated A+ and endorsed by NRA-PVF but is rated C by GOA. Of the three Democrats, Webb and Tester are likely the more staunch gun rights supporters, but again they are newcomers to a previously 100% anti-gun caucus.
General conclusions:
We see a welcome inclusion of 10 A-rated gun supporters to the Democrat side for a total of 26 (in the House). That is not an overwhelming number with nearly 500 members in the House. I consider it a real stretch to say anything like "many new House members are pro-gun".
The net loss of pro-gun votes is [NONE].
The net gain of pro-gun votes is [4] (one is B rated).
Lost [19] pro-gun votes and gained [23], Of the 23 gained, 13 were GOP and 10 were Dem. Of the 23, [13] are Republican won open seats, [4] are Democrat won open seats, and [6] are Democrats defeating Republican incumbents. The net gain of [4] is mostly due to Republicans.
Note that all of the 19 pro-gun votes lost were proven ratings. The 23 gained are unproven.
The Senate is at face value "status quo", but the value of 3 pro-gun junior Senators who are rated as the only serious pro-gun support on the Democrat side remains to be proven.
end report
Constructive comments and suggestions welcome. Flattery wins extra points.
I reviewed all of the 2006 election results for Congress and measured them against both GOA and NRA candidate ratings. The reason was both in response to claims that "many pro-gun Democrats won House seats" and a desire to have a sound basis for expecting significant change or pretty much status quo in federal gun legislation.
The following are some statistics and my conclusions:
Data:
- CNN election results, which included designation of incumbents
- (GOA) Gun Owners of America candidate ratings, as published in the 10/20/06 newsletter.
- (NRA-PVF) National Rifle Association Political Victory Fund candidate ratings from the website
Notes:
I believe there are still a few contested House seats.
Where I found GOA or NRA had no rating, I used whichever rating was available. Where both had rated a candidate, I found no noteworthy difference in how NRA and GOA had rated candidates with only a couple exceptions. Where there was a significant difference in ratings, I broke them out as "mixed" and will point them out.
There are only a couple candidates with B- to B+ ratings. I did not count them as necessarily pro-gun allies (A- to A+) but will point them out for consideration.
In Tennessee, Cohen (D) (rated B and B-) won the open seat over an independent with no rating (Ford (I)). The Republican was third. The seat is counted as won by a Democrat. Tennessee's 9th District covers Memphis, is the only district contained in one county, and is the State's only black majority district. The Republican named "White" did not do well at all :>). The independent named "Ford" was Harold Ford Jr.'s younger brother, who was running for the seat formerly held by both Harold Ford Sr. and Harold Ford Jr. The elder Ford was in a highly publicized race for US Senator, losing to the Republican (Corker), rated [A] by NRA-PVF and unrated by GOA. That was the open seat vacated by Frist. I noted that Tennessee's vote by race was astoundingly high in blacks voting for blacks but not at all noteworthy re whites avoiding black candidates. In any case, with Frist's replacement, Tennessee now appears well represented in Congress in regard to the RKBA.
NRA endorsed 1 Democrat, Lampson of TX
Statistics:
Category: Incumbents that lost - counted 22
Republican incumbents defeated by Democrats: 22
Of that number of Democrats 6 were rated [A] (27%). Sodrel (D-IN) was rated [D-] by GOA and [A] by NRA-PVF but is included in that count of 6 rated [A].
Of the Republicans (incumbents) defeated, 17 had NRA endorsements and 19 had A ratings (86%). Note that NRA did not endorse a candidate in every race.
Democratic incumbents defeated: [None].
Among those (D) incumbents, 16 had [A] ratings.
Most of the 22 Democrats defeating GOP incumbents had no ratings, which means they did not return questionnaires, have a State level record, or provide any useful information in regard to RKBA.
Indiana traded 3 A-rated Republicans for 3 A-rated Democrats.
New Hampshire lost 2 A-rated Republicans for 1 not rated and 1 C-rated Democrat. Note that New Hampshire has only two Representatives, so the State did a complete rollover from pro-gun Republican to very questionable Democrats. It is probably significant that neither of the two Republican Senators, Gregg and Sununu, were up for election in 2006, but Sununu may face a tough challenge in 2008. We could also see the House seats roll back to the GOP side based upon Sununu's strength as a three term House rep and one term Senator. Parenthetically, Sununu is rated B by GOA and would not likely clash with any pro-gun rated House candidate during a 2008 campaign in New Hampshire.
New York lost 2 A-rated Republicans for 1 F-rated and 1 unrated Democrat.
Pennsylvania traded 4 A-rated Republicans for 3 F-rated and 1 A-rated Democrat (Altmire). One has to wonder if the PA Senate race affected the outcome for House seats. The incumbent Republican Senator (Santorum) was upset by the Democrat (Casey), both of whom are rated well on RKBA support. The other possibility is that the State saw much more straight-ticket Democrat voting. Otherwise, the races stood on their own. That seems unlikely as a nationwide anomaly.
11 other States had one GOP incumbent upset, 3 of which were poorly rated in any case.
Category: Open seats - counted 33
Won by Republicans - 13
Won by Democrats - 20
Republican ratings:
A - 13
Democrat ratings:
A - 4
B- - 1
Mixed (c and A) - 1
Not rated - 3
F rated - 11 (a couple D ratings included)
Poorly rated or unrated Democrat winners (of open seats) versus losers:
Winners - 14 F or unrated
13 F rated Democrats over A rated Republicans, 9 of which (Republicans) were NRA-PVF endorsed. In total, I don't see any NRA based backlash, but the endorsement didn't seem to particularly lead to candidate success except perhaps on the Democrat side in a few races. Note that there were a few races where both Democratic and Republican candidates were rated A, races pretty much dominated by Democrats. I should do an actual review (count) to make much of that point.
Category: The Senate
Three proven A-rated Republican Senators were traded for three well-rated but unproven Democrats (Tester over Burns (MT) and Webb over Allen (VA)). Santorum's loss to Casey in PA was a race among pretty much equals in regard to RKBA, probably a C to A rating. Casey may prove to be better but is a junior Senator in a rabidly anti-gun, Democrat caucus. Casey was not rated by GOA but was rated A by NRA-PVF. Santorum was rated A+ and endorsed by NRA-PVF but is rated C by GOA. Of the three Democrats, Webb and Tester are likely the more staunch gun rights supporters, but again they are newcomers to a previously 100% anti-gun caucus.
General conclusions:
We see a welcome inclusion of 10 A-rated gun supporters to the Democrat side for a total of 26 (in the House). That is not an overwhelming number with nearly 500 members in the House. I consider it a real stretch to say anything like "many new House members are pro-gun".
The net loss of pro-gun votes is [NONE].
The net gain of pro-gun votes is [4] (one is B rated).
Lost [19] pro-gun votes and gained [23], Of the 23 gained, 13 were GOP and 10 were Dem. Of the 23, [13] are Republican won open seats, [4] are Democrat won open seats, and [6] are Democrats defeating Republican incumbents. The net gain of [4] is mostly due to Republicans.
Note that all of the 19 pro-gun votes lost were proven ratings. The 23 gained are unproven.
The Senate is at face value "status quo", but the value of 3 pro-gun junior Senators who are rated as the only serious pro-gun support on the Democrat side remains to be proven.
end report
Constructive comments and suggestions welcome. Flattery wins extra points.
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