I think you're wrong, Sam, at least when it comes to the "9th Circus".
http://wiki.calgunsfoundation.org/in...ordyke_v._King
Read through the interlocutory appeal decision. Specifically:
The Ninth Circuit panel then turned to the merits of the Nordyke's First and Second Amendment claims. The panel held that on motion for permanent injunction, the Nordykes did not prevail in their first amendment claims. The court also rejected Nordyke's Second Amendment claims citing binding precedent from Hickman that only states have standing to bring Second Amendment claims. However, the panel strongly suggested (and Gould's concurrence stated plainly) that it did not believe that the previous Second Amendment rulings in Hickman and Silveira were good law.
The Judges in the panel, which are again getting this case, are Diarmud O'Scannlain, Ronald Gould, and Arhur Alarcon. O'Scannlain is from Oregon District, and Gould is from Western Washington district, two states with very strong RKBA provisions in their state constitutions, and strongly considered "progressive states with strong pro-gun leanings".
Mark my words, we will get incorporation in the 9th Circuit. The Heller ruling pretty much said that the two cases that held that Cruikshank and Presser decisions are bad case law on the level of the 19th century first amendment cases which declared the 1st amendment to not apply to the states.
What will happen when incorporation occurs in the 9th Circuit? This means that every CCW application, due to the fact that you can't open carry due to the presence of Penal Code 12031, has the possibility of being such a hot potato due to the whole "color of law" situation.
It *may* take a follow up lawsuit after wards, but after incorporation, any police officer who engages in "loaded gun" checks under PC12031, who abuses the 2nd amendment rights of citizens, will become PERSONALLY liable for civil rights violations, meaning we can file complaints with the US DOJ for civil rights violations, as well as sue them. Qualified immunity does NOT apply to civil rights violations, and we can hit these sheriff's offices and police chiefs where it hurts, their personal pocketbook.
California may not ever be as "free" as Oregon and Washington on gun issues, but I predict that 5 years after incorporation, California will have 1 to 2 million CCW holders versus 40,000 they currently have now. We may also have out of state licensees too (see Jim March's treatise on Ward v. Maryland), and I would encourage EVERY Arizonan, Nevadan, Oregonian, and Washingtonian to get a CCW in California once that happens.
We'd have to work VERY hard to make that happen, spread the word to our family members, have THEM apply for licenses and so on, but the more people who have licenses, the bigger the pool if the California Legislature ever tries to do anything stupid.
There's an old saying, that's repeated by the recent movie The Dark Knight. It's Always Darkest Before the Dawn, and that dawn was June 26th, 2008.
We need to stand by our brothers and sisters in California. I don't want to hear about any handwringing about "Kali" this and whining that the Supreme Court didn't go far enough. Never admit the faults of the opinions, just push that it's a basic fundamental right. Scalia gave us many weapons in our arsenal in this decision. Let's use it.
I also don't want to hear "Move out of California, it'll be better for you". All Californians need to stand and fight and quit running. Your liberation is at hand, us out of state folk are pulling for you, but the folks on the ground need to actively participate. If you're not part of the solution, you're part of the problem.
-Lonnie Wilson