ahenry:
Not necessarily. Remember I am not coming down on any side in this debate, so take this as its intended. The greater the number of incidences that show a correlation increase the likelihood of causation. Allow me to provide a true illustration. If every time walk out into bright sunlight from more subdued lighting, I sneeze, I can begin to suspect there is causation from the sunlight*. Not necessarily something I can prove, but when it happens with such regularity and such certainty that I can reliably predict it, there is a good chance there is causation there.
So while it is true that one cannot necessarily say that two events equal causation, repetition of those two events over and over and over again can reliably indicate that there is actually causation.
Not so. First of all, even if A and B have high correlations, if you can come up with yet another element - C - that has higher correlations to B than A does, than (by your logic) C causes B is more likely than B causes A.
So, for example, if there is a high correlations between radical Islam and violence, you could assume that maybe radical Islam causes violence. But if you find, for example, that high poverty (or severe repression by government or whatever else) has higher correlations to violence, then by your logic, high poverty is more likely to cause violence than Islam.
Furthermore, you leave out the possibility that A and B might have a high correlations, not because there is a causal relationship, but because another factor - say, D - may be causing BOTH, thus creating the correlations between the first two.
For example, let's assume that radical Islam and violence has a high correlations. But if it turns out that, say, being located in the Middle East and having a repressive government CAUSES both radical Islam and violence, then we can have a situation in which there might be perfect correlations between radical Islam and violence (because both are caused by another set of factors), yet not have a causal relationship.
In the instance, it would be correct to state that radical Islam and violence are both symptoms of another causal factor (Middle East, rather than South America, repressive government, poverty, etc.), but it would be wrong to cite radical Islam as the causal factor for violence.
You can disprove the notion that Islam "causes" terrorism by disproving 1) necessity (that Islam is necessary for terrorism) and 2) sufficiency (that Islam is enough to cause terrorism).
So, for 1), we find a Christian society with lots of terrorism. Columbia. For 2) we find a Muslim society without terrorism (or no more than any non-Muslim society) Malaysia.
In fact, when we do a study of terrorism, we often find correlational conditions that has nothing to do with the specific factor of Islam: poverty, government repression, no or little history of legal mechanisms of dissent, low literacy rate, religious/spiritual extremism (not just Islam, but Jewish, Christian, pagan, or whatever) and so forth that perhaps show much greater correlational strength than "Islam."
lendringser:
Islam hasn't had its renaissance yet, and it's badly overdue for one.
Yes! More specifically, what made the Renaissance possible was the Protestant Reformation and the subsequent secularization of society (not that people are less religious, but rather the divorce between the religious and government authorities). What Islam badly needs is a kind of Reformation.
That is not to suggest that some Muslim sects do not believe in that seperation of "Church and State." Some do. However, because of specific historical-social conditions, they have not been able to "impose" that view on many Muslim socities.
cuchulain:
quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Where did these social conditions come from? Interesting how a society suffused with a certain mind-set that affects all aspects of its behavior, by its own choice and design, is not to be implicated in that society's problems.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
What about the abject poverty in Christian South America?
Exactly. Ever notice how nation-states with unstable borders, poverty, low literacy, rapacious government, ethnic tensions are often those that had been colonized by another power for a long period of time?
Zander:
quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Here we have a correlation between blacks and a high incidence of crime. There is, however, no established causation - that being blacks causes criminality. -- Bahadur
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Is this supposed to be some semblance of a conclusion reached by the scientific method?!? You skipped a step trying to make your point.
Statistics [real, violent-crime ones] show that the average black in our society is much more likely to commit a violent crime than any other racial/ethnic/blah-blah-blah individual we can list.
Nope. That's NOT what the statistics show (what's an "average black" anyway). The stats do not determine the likelihood of a particular individual's actions. What the statistics show, however, is that there is a greater likelihood of a random group of (say) 1,000 blacks having more criminals than a similar group of 1,000 whites. Again, correlations!
Now, what happens if we find out that the correlations between "low income people living in concentrations (meaning "ghettos") and crime is substantially higher than "black" and crime?
Here is a thought: if we find that blacks, Hispanics, Asians and whites all have different crime rates in general, but that these groups living in "ghettos" have similar or identical crime rates, what does that say about which is more likely to be merely correlational and which more likely to be causal?
In spite of your prostestations, correlations become causations...conclusions drawn from them are entirely valid; and no amount of PC-driven meandering will change it.
"PC-driven meander" is merely a personal attack, and you know it.
Equating correlations with causation is a fallacy - and has been recognized as such LONG before political-correctness was ever conceived.
Let me give you yet another example.
Let's say that EVERYTIME *you* see a bird dropping from the sky to hide under a tree, you get soaked with water (by rain). Meaning, there is a PERFECT correlations between the bird's action and you getting wet. Does that mean the bird's action CAUSES the phenomenon of you getting wet?
Or is the causal factor (rain) actually making both happen, in which case the two might correlate perfectly, yet one is not causal to the other (rain is the causal factor)?