Is it our numbers or our money?

[MyRoad]

Two things influence politics: money, and/or percentage of population. Do you think that the last wave of 'pro-gun' political events (like allowing the AWB to sunset, and more states allowing CCW permits) happened primarily because of the shear number of gun owners, or because of the money they raised through organizations like the NRA and GOA and the lobbyists they supported?

Having heard we crested the 300,000,000 mark got me wondering about how many Americans would be directly effected by a gun ban of any type. Let's assume for a moment that the Democrats take over, and they claim that the the last gun ban had no impact because it was not pervasive enough -- this time, not only are "assault weapons" going to be illegal to purchase, but they will be illegal to own -- no grandfathering. Assuming for a moment that every American who owned an AR, AK, FAL, etc., submitted to the new law and handed over their rifles, how many people would be directly effected by this law?

So my questions really boil down to:

How many gun owners are there in the U.S.?
How many gun owners own guns commonly referred to as "assault weapons"?
How are gun ownership statistics estimated?
Is it our numbers (population) or our money (lobbying) which has the greatest effect on law makers?
(Bonus Question: In the scenario above, how many gun owners would refuse to hand over their guns?)


Apparently some or all of these questions are impossible to accurately calculate, especially and obviously the 'bonus' question. So I'm wondering what statistics exist, and what everyone's best guess would be.

I'm asking these questions because if the gun-owning population is a substantial percentage of the total population, that is a whole different situation than if this is actually a fringe group fighting a battle against perception and propaganda. In reality, I would assume that about 15-20% of the population has at least one gun in their home, and that about 15-20% of the population is adamantly anti-gun, and the rest are somewhere in the middle of the road, and would not vote one way or the other based on this issue. I am guessing the numbers of pro- and anti- are close because if one side were strongly dominant than there wouldn't really be a battle.

 

[carpediem]

Dunno about the others.

AFA $$$ vs numbers, it's kind of a false dichotomy. It takes a certain amount of $$$ plus numbers. Money w/out numbers doesn't always work (look at how .gov is always levying new taxes on the top 1% or top 10%). Money with numbers (AARP is a prime example) = major clout.

 

[River Wraith]

It seems like our numbers are shrinking every year. I'm thinking we are definately in the minority.

 

[MyRoad]

It seems like our numbers are shrinking every year. I'm thinking we are definately in the minority.

I really have no idea, I've only been a gun owner for the last 8 years or so. If our overall numbers are shrinking, it sure does seem that those who own them are buying more and more of them -- it seems like AKs and ARs sell about as quickly as they can be made or imported. A local (rural) gun store owner is retiring and he's selling everything at cost. His stock is going fast, I'll bet he'll be 90% liquidated within the month, and he's not advertising, it's all word of mouth.

 

[cbsbyte]

I believe a Federal study several years ago put the # of gunners at 30%, while a NRA study put the percentage around 45% of the US population. The true number is probably somewhere in between those percentages. Either way the number is decreasing by most studies. Thought there are up ticks of gun buying during national disasters, like Katrina, but the overall trend is downward. There are few new younger shooters replacing the older ones, while the elderly are slowly becoming the largest % of gun owners. On top of this, only a small % of gun owners are actually supportive of the RKBA, most are apathic at best. One can look for the numbers on the net. It is pretty depressing.

http://www.ncjrs.gov/txtfiles/165476.txt

 

[scurtis_34471]

A recent gallop pole put gun ownership at 43%, which is closer to the NRA number.

 

[xd9fan]

our number of guns.......

 

[orangelo]

We fight harder because we have something to lose and the truth is an unfair advantage the grabbers can't overcome with their propaganda. Especially now that confidence in the liberal America-hating media is at an all time low. Thanks to Jayson Blair and Dan Rather and Katie Couric they just can't peddle the same lies that they used to and expect people to believe them.