Ed, I'll grant you that.
I'll continue on, though and say, a lot of this is unquantifiable. Unless Galup is going to poll around the country and figure out who's shooting what, when, and how much, and then compare those numbers to accurate information on who WAS shooting at some previous time (when most of that, as you pointed out, was informal and hard to quantify), you have to go on indicators of trends that we can actually see and record.
I grew up in hunting families on both sides of my line. LONG time hunters. In some cases even subsitance hunters and even a few commercial hunters back in the day. I was shooting from a young age, and it was all VERY informal. Pretty much every household had a gun or two and they went out and shot from time to time. At least once a year -- as long as they saw a deer.
I didn't know ANYONE, EVER who shot 1,000 rounds in a year. A couple of hundred would have been a lot, not counting .22s I suppose. I didn't know ANYONE, EVER who shot competitively (aside from the occasional "turky shoot" which I think ivolved 3 shells). I know such folks did exist, and there have been competitive shooters for as long as there have been GUNS, but it sure wasn't common back when I was a boy. I thought we shot a lot. And it wasn't once a month. Not close.
And, as I indicated, the "shooting sports" as they involved hunting were so minimal on shooting as to have been more properly referred to as, "standing in a field holding a gun" sports.
These days I can pick 'most any weekend of the year and attend close to 15 matches just within driving distance, and just in ONE discipline, at each of which I'd see 30+ friends, the least of whom are getting in 3,000-5,000 rounds in practice and competition each year. I get notifications/invitations to attend 10+ shooting sports seminars and training sessions each year. And so on.
Perhaps it simply depends on how you define someone as being an active participant in the shooting sports. Or whether you're gauging merely raw numbers of folks who occasionally pull a trigger or you're actually qualifying folks' access and desire to really earnestly compete (at least with themselves).
But, then there's that big hairy gorilla in the corner (at least that's how I like to think of it
) of well over A MILLION NICS checks going through most months now. A huge spike over ANYTHING ever seen before. So, yeah, maybe a handful of those purchasers are going out for the olympic team, and another handful will never, ever fire a shot. But somewhere in between are a WHOLE lot of folks who will shoot. If we accept that they are participating in "the shooting sports" -- with at least as much validity as were those of us who came up busting clods in the local gravel pits with a .22 -- then you can't possibly say that shooting sports are dying out.
The demographics have changed a lot. The popular styles of competition and/or activities folks want to do with their guns has changed. But the "pie" isn't getting smaller. IMHO.
-Sam