It's all about the money....

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Kaylee

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Well... Glock glocker and I were talking, and the subject of economic systems came up. After chatting a bit, he wanted to see what the rest of y'all thought, given that you're all so smart and everything. :) So... blue sky perfect world -- if you were to design an economic model from scratch BUT take into account human and organizational nature.... what would you do?


Me... I'd take a page from L Niel Smith and keep units of account in precious metals... because I believe SOME kind of commodity standard is necessary to keep the money issuers honest. Gold and silver worked well for thousands of years, no reason they still couldn't. The primary change of course would be to no longer say 1 dollar=1/20 oz, 1 pound = 1/4 oz, and so forth, but instead actually do commerce in grain weights of metals. An ounce is an ounce is an ounce, period.. there's no national currency to be devalued, debased, or inflated.

For example.. you walk into a restaurant, pay a couple ounces silver, or say 1/10 oz gold or something. No dollars, dinars, francs, euros, or whatever else. Hard definable quantity.. it is what it is.


The system would of course have some flaws (mostly due to currency shocks as population changes and metal supply stays constant, or vice versa, or the two move against each other). Still and all, it's the most human-tamper proof system I know if until someone finds a way to economically make gold, so it seems good to me.

However, you'd still need a consortium of banking entities to handle the flows of commerce -- capitalism doesn't happen without providers of capital. Moreover, there need to be SOME rules of the game -- total lawlessness doesn't provide enough stability for business owners to be able to project far enough into the future to take the risk on borrowed capital. Here, I think a private banking system, akin to the late 19th century commercial bankers and Bank of England, would be ideal. Let them also have boards of standards, such that any bank loaning out too much against its reserves and the like gets smacked down... otherwise, you see bank runs during hard times. We'd have to be willing to see "sickeningly wealthy" bankers again though, and I dunno if the populace at large is comfy with that.

Of course, most of the reserves would be handled as just that -- reserves. I'd imagine most of the actual flow would be no different than it is today -- predominantly electronic, albeit instantly redeemable at any (private) bank. Perhaps in exchange for a nominal seignorage fee on taking delivery of the physical stuff. Otherwise, not too different than what, say, e-gold is doing today.

Thoughts? Better ideas?
 
The gold/silver ratio has (historically) been around 16:1. It's not that now, silver needs to go up quite a bit. Bimetallism (gold/silver) was a platform of the Populists (Bryan) and Greenback Party whom the dastardly Marcus Hanna ground into minced meat. In other words, the big, eastern, establishment banks don't like that idea. But I do. :D Silver is going to become more scarce than people realize. Warren Buffet has millions of dollars of it in possession. As does China. Silver has an immense demand in the industrial world. The US Mint has been minting silver eagles for many years and they are running out of silver rounds. The gold:silver ratio may be a problem to adjust, but I agree with you that paper money needs to have some type of concrete backing. Alan Greenspan doesn't believe so. But then, he's a former musician. :(
 
A solid metals standard would be good for distance trading, but I'd rather see most local transactions happen by barter. Let individuals agree between themselves what value a good or service has relative to another one. Barter has the advantage of building up community relations in ways that any money intermediation tends to erode.
 
re bimetalism... kinda interesting history there. The background is that the farmers and such wanted a larger money supply, and thus inflation. This would mean they'd be paying their farm loans back with cheaper dollars than they borrowed. The bankers, of course, didn't like that idea. :) At the time (late 19th c.) we were actually in a period of deflation, due to the decreased money supply caused by the abadonment of the bimetallic standard post-Civil War. In the end, the issue of monetizing silver again was dropped because of massive gold strikes in Alaska and South Africa, resulting in the inflation the farmers wanted without recourse to silver. By the time that settled down, we had WWI, WWII, Bretton Woods, and the eventual abandonment of the metallic standards at all.

Evan and all, the 16-1 cry was obselete by the end of the 19th century due to changing mining technologies, and I doubt even with the remonetization of metals it would ever approach such levels.

Re the US Mint not having enough rounds.. I think that's a "funds to pursue a non-necessary program" issue, not a "we're coming up on a scarcity of silver" issue. Matter of fact though, I just heard the silver mines up near Couer d'Alene, where Sunshine Mint (manufacturer of the silver blanks) was located have been closing lately. Still and all.... I don't think we'll see any major increase in the price of silver. And really, the point is incidental to the idea of a backed currency... regardless of what the coin dealers say.

I think I have yet to meet a coin dealer who isn't convinced that the price of metals is going to explode Any Day Now... kinda the coin collectors SHTF stories I guess. :p

nualle -- re barter.. it does make sense for some transactions, and definately does have its community advantages.. but I think some medium of exchange is essential even at the local level. It's hard to make change in chickens. :) That said, I predict a steady rise in barter as taxes rise.

-K
 
Kaylee, aren't precious metals themselves another form of arbitrary currency? I mean, you can't eat them or shoot them or drive them. In a true societal collapse, it would be commodities like food, fuel, and "sin items" (booze, cigarettes, etc) that would have real value.
 
That said, I predict a steady rise in barter as taxes rise.
Indeed, as such transactions are near impossible to track and record; thus, they can't be taxed.;)

It's clear that the fed.gov would like to have a record of any monetary/goods exchange of any sort at any level.

Are your papers in order? Have you rec'd your national ID card yet?

I've lost my social security card [my national ID at this date]...am I officially a nonentity?
 
It's hard to make change in chickens
Well, how many eggs is one chicken worth? :D We can devise a chicken:egg ratio and submit our idea to ... well, yes, the barter system is best. :)

the price of metals is going to explode Any Day Now
It's already happened. Maybe not a loud explosion, but if you've been watching since the fall of 2001 the direction in which gold is going...
 
An example of free banking existed in Scotland from early in the 18th century until 1844. No central bank existed and private banks issued their own currency backed by gold. The system suffered little inflation and was more stable than the regulated one in England at the time.

I think cybercash is the future. Barter is hard because it is often hard to find someone who wants your chickens and has your needed toothbrush. The odds of finding the right trading partner increases dramatically when the whole globe is your market.

The ability to move capital from the reach of the tax collector (or any tyrant) with a key stroke is intriguing.
 
I like barter OK for local transations.
We still need currency for a lot of things, though.
How about tying the value of the dollar to one gallon of unleaded regular gas. Then let the Euro float within + or - 10%. That should stablized most of the worlds economy and break the backs of most governments that want to add 3-400% tax to the cost of fuel.
 
It seems to me that let to its own devices, any barter system community will tend to settle into one or a few commonly accepted products to use as ipso facto currency, thus eliminating many problems. Leave people alone and unregulated, and they'll create a very efficient system by themselves. No governing needed, and certainly no taxing either.

Same thing goes for banking. Leave people alone, and they'll create the solution. People are smart enough to choose the safe, secure, and honest banks (that's what capitalism is all about, choosing the optimal product). Wealth will flow freely, and everyone will benefit.
 
Buttons.

I think we should use buttons as money. Could carry your change with you, where ever you went.

And the really big ones, you know - the kind with only two holes, they would be worth more. The ones with four holes would only be good on the second monday of each month.




Yeah, buttons.
 
"mostly due to currency shocks as population changes and metal supply stays constant..."

An even bigger problem with a specie-based monetary system...

In a rapidly growing economy the need for hard currency can quickly outstrip the available metal supply, which can effectively crush growth.
 
In a rapidly growing economy the need for hard currency can quickly outstrip the available metal supply, which can effectively crush growth.

Why so? If "wealth" increased yet the supply of money remained constant, wouldn't the effect just be deflation, which would mean that the purchasing power of everyone's metal would increase? Why would it matter if the price of a house dropped from 4 bars of gold to 2 bars? At that point, gold would be a good investment, as well as motivation for people to look for more gold.

Kaylee,

If I'm not mistaken, wasn't the Bank of England a central bank started by one of the Rothchilds? If so, isnt that not exactly a private monetary system, as it's a govt sponsored monopoly?
 
Ian has a great point.

I wouldn't create anything if I were God of the Market. The market will take care of itself naturally. We always harp about how it is impossible for a central bank/government to try and predict economic behavior. Well it is impossible for me as well. I'll just say that I want to see a method of exchange that is free and does not suffer from artificial influence.
 
There was an article in the "Journal of Irreproducable Results" that suggested hard coinage made from Plutonium. Point being to encourage spending and discourage hoarding. This came out during the Carter administration, if I remember right, and won the Ig-Nobel prize in economics.
 
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