Looking for compelling CCW stats

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eflatminor

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Anyone know of an unbiased and thorough study that proves increasing the number of conceal carry permits reduces violent crime? Such a study would have to be from a non-biased entity (or better yet, a left leaning entity). It would have to factor in overall trends in crime throughout the country and compare them to specific areas where CCW permits have been issued since 1987 (or whenever it was the Florida started the trend). I want to site a really powerful study in my periodic debates with the anti law enforcement leaders here in CA, something that they would have a very hard time dismissing.
Thanks
 
You're going about this all wrong. Crime isn't influenced by guns. Concealed carry, assault weapons, saturday night special....guns are way way too superficially related to crime. If you want to find links to crime you need to look at socio-economic causes and see what leads people to feel like they need to turn to violence and what their life has been like to allow them to believe its correct. Guns are a tool, not the cause and not the deterrent. Lets use a little common sense even, most states see something like 1-2% of the population with carry permits, most of those people don't carry with regularity. If you're a crook the oods of you running into an armed citizen are incredibly slim. Your strongest position is to show that concealed carry permit holders do not commit crimes with their guns and are safe and that is easy to prove with very unbiased sources and that allowing people to defend themselves is the right thing to do.
 
While I agree with your points, our Sheriff does not. He'll refer to the tired old arguement that a CCW holder isn't trained properly and might shoot a good guy (a sad agruement I know, but it's what he believes). If there are just too few CCW holders to compile a meaningful study, so be it. But, if such a study exists, I'd like to know about it.
 
If your sheriff won't look at numbers from state departments that issue permits like the texas dps, florida, that all show it to be perfectly safe, are you sure that he'll take a flawed study that tries to prove ccw permits lower crime rates any more seriously?

John Lott's work is of course the most popular study that attempts to show that correlation but I'm on your side and I sure wouldn't be citing it. Ymmv.

Perhaps its time to take the quality evidence of permit holders being safe to the people and the media and try to use a volume of people wanting self defense to speak to the sheriff instead of reasoning with him directly?
 
I have to agree. We're getting "numbered" to death over a very personal and crucial aspect of crime. I'm not even sure statistics apply to the idea.

For example, if I am car-jacked and use a firearm to save my life, then a CCW program has been "100% effective." This applies even if I live in a low crime area.

If I live my entire life in safety and security and never clear leather, then how do you factor me into the mix? Am I a "zero factor" to be lauded by gun-grabbers? Am I insignificant? Am I pertinent to even CCW supporters?

You cannot even average averages. Is math accurate in tabulating the actions of other white male Christians in my income bracket?

And how do you properly document the numbers of CCW owners who use a firearm to save their lives, but never fire a shot in scaring away the felon?

The moment an anti starts spouting figures, my eyes glaze over and I start humming the theme song from "Gilligan's Island." We have twisted the numbers so bad that they are meaningless.

Here's an example. Do you remember the old canard from gun-grabbers about being "43 times more dangerous"? Well, the FBI's uniform crime stats show that civilians kill about 2,000 felons per year.

Ergo, that means that somewhere out there on the tables of coroners, there must be 86,000 innocent civilian bodies. Good night, take me to this palce where they stack victims like cordwood.

I feel we are better off in discussing the positive aspects of safety and security.
 
It's not out there...here's a recent article from the OC Register.

http://www.ocregister.com/articles/gun-homeowner-year-2003954-police-irvine

Gun statistics you seldom see
If someone breaks into your home, and you have a justifiable fear that he might kill or harm you or someone else, you have a right to defend yourself with lethal force.
GORDON DILLOW
Register columnist

It was the sort of incident that never makes it into the official crime statistics – that is, an incident in which a crime may have been prevented by a firearm.

It happened earlier this month in Irvine. Police were looking for a man suspected of raping an 18-year-old woman in her home. As the cops searched, the fleeing suspect, a 27-year-old L.A. gang member, tried to hide by breaking into another home. Inside, the homeowner, a man who had recently undergone defensive firearms training, heard the commotion, grabbed a handgun and confronted the suspect.

The homeowner didn't shoot the alleged rapist, although legally he almost certainly could have. If someone breaks into your home, and you have a justifiable fear that he might kill or harm you or someone else, you have a right to defend yourself with lethal force.

But as I said, the homeowner – for security reasons, he declined to be interviewed or identified by name – didn't shoot. Instead, he shouted at the suspect to stop, at which point the guy ran out of the house. Shortly thereafter he was caught and arrested by the police.

"The homeowner took the appropriate safety steps," Irvine Police Lt. Rick Handfield told me. "And he had had some firearms training, which is an important part of gun ownership."

But did the homeowner's use of a gun prevent another crime from occurring – perhaps an assault on the homeowner or his family? Or would the suspect, who turned out to be unarmed, have fled when confronted by the homeowner, gun or no gun? The police can't definitively say.

So how will that incident be reflected in the crime statistics?

Yes, the rape will be added to the grim numbers of that despicable crime, and the successful arrest will appear in the Irvine Police Department's annual statistics. And ironically, if the homeowner had justifiably shot and killed the intruder it still would have been listed in the overall statistics as a gun-related homicide – the same statistics that anti-gun activists use to promote stricter so-called "gun control" laws to keep firearms out of the hands of law-abiding citizens.

But police departments and other government agencies don't collect hard numbers on crimes that may have been prevented by armed citizens – because, as in the Irvine case, they're difficult and sometimes impossible to quantify.

And that's unfortunate. Because crimes prevented by firearms are as important in the debate over guns as crimes committed with firearms.

As you probably know, last week the U.S. Supreme Court took up the 2nd Amendment question. The case could finally decide whether the U.S. Constitution gives individuals the "right to keep and bear arms," as opposed to a collective right afforded only to organized state "militias" such as the National Guard.

(By the way, California law defines our state's "militia" as "all able-bodied male citizens … between the ages of eighteen and forty-five" – which, at age 57, I find somewhat insulting and discriminatory. And in any modern application I guess we would have to include the gals in the militia, too.)

Well, I don't have enough space to go into all the 2nd Amendment arguments. But to me it's obvious that a homeowner in Irvine – or any other law-abiding citizen – has a constitutional right to have a firearm.

Of course, whenever gun ownership rights are debated, anti-gun activists like to point out that about 30,000 people are killed by guns in America every year -- although they seldom note that about 60 percent of those deaths are suicides, or that the firearm murder rate has dropped by 40 percent in the past 15 years, or that far more people are killed by motor vehicles or medical malpractice every year than are killed by guns.

And they never mention how many crimes have been prevented by citizens bearing arms.

Once again, that's a hard thing to quantify. One U.S. government survey in the 1990s estimated that more than 80,000 Americans a year used guns in an effort to protect themselves or their property against crime. Other estimates put the number far higher, at more than 2 million crimes prevented each year by the presence of privately-owned firearms.

But those are estimates and extrapolations – which means we can argue about the numbers all day long.

Still, this much is clear. When faced with a violent criminal in his house in the middle of the night, it would be hard to argue that that homeowner in Irvine would have been better off without a gun.


714-796-7953 or [email protected]
 
Anyone know of an unbiased and thorough study that proves increasing the number of conceal carry permits reduces violent crime?
Studies can't prove anything.

Statistical analysis can demonstrate a correlation between behaviors, and show the strength of the correlation, but even the best studies cannot prove that one thing causes the other.

Besides, you're working from a mistaken premise: California legislators are not at all interested in what works. They're interested in seeming to do something so they can be re-elected. They can easily dismiss anything that conflicts with that goal.
 
I use a couple sources in my discussions. Though I must say not all of them are favorable towards gun rights. I don't think a study the OP is asking for exists.

This first one has some fascinating information. They ask felons questions such as, "If you used a gun during a violent crime, why did you do so. If you chose to not use a gun, why was this the case?" and "How long would it take you to obtain another firearm upon release?"
Amazon review by 'A Customer' said:
Armed and Considered Dangerous: A Survey of Felons and Their Firearms (used $10)
Intending to build the case for comprehensive federal gun restrictions, the Carter administration handed out a major gun control research grant to sociology Professor James D. Wright, and his colleagues Peter Rossi and Kathleen Daly. Wright was already on record as favoring much stricter controls, and he and his colleagues were recognized as among sociology's brightest stars. Rossi, a University of Massachusetts professor, would later become President of the American Sociology Association. Wright, who formerly served as Director of the Social and Demographic Research Institute at the University of Massachusetts, now teaches at Tulane. Daly was a relatively young scholar at the time, but she has since gone on to win the Hindelang Prize from the American Society of Criminology. The Hindelang Prize is awarded for the most significant contribution to criminology in a three-year period. Daly is the most recent winner, for her studies of women's issues. Anyway, Wright, Rossi, and Daly were asked to survey the state of research regarding the efficacy of gun control, presumably to show that gun control worked, and America needed more of it. But when Wright, Rossi, and Daly produced their report for the National Institute of Justice, they delivered a document quite different from the one they had expected to write. Carefully reviewing all existing research to date, the three scholars found no persuasive scholarly evidence that America's 20,000 gun control laws had reduced criminal violence. For example, the federal Gun Control Act of 1968, which banned most interstate gun sales, had no discernible impact on the criminal acquisition of guns from other states. Washington, D.C.'s 1977 ban on the ownership of handguns which had not already been registered in the District was not linked to any reduction in gun crime in the District. Even Detroit's law providing mandatory sentences for felonies committed with a gun was found to have no effect on gun crime patterns, in part because judges would often reduce the sentence for the underlying offense in order to balance out the mandatory two-year extra sentence for use of a gun. The Wright/Rossi/Daly team exploded scores of other gun control myths. They discussed the data showing that gun owners-rather then being a violent, aberrant group of nuts-were at least as psychologically stable and morally sound as the rest of the population. Polls claiming to show that a large majority of the population favored "more gun control" were debunked as being the product of biased questions, and of the fact that most people have no idea how strict gun laws already are. As the scholars frankly admitted, they had started out their research as gun control advocates, and had been forced to change their minds by a careful review of the evidence. Review by Dave Kopel, Independence Institute, http://i2i.org.

This article (review of scientific article) elaborates on how urban Chicago's black market for handguns is basically non-existent.
The Economist said:
America's illicit gun-market is surprisingly inefficient
AS AMERICANS digest the news of another gun atrocity, a mall shooting in Nebraska on December 5th, they cannot be blamed for thinking that guns are in too ready supply. But an article in the latest Economic Journal* suggests that the demand for illegal guns, at least, is not met as easily as people might fear. Sudhir Venkatesh, now of Columbia University, has talked to 132 gang-members, 77 prostitutes, 116 gun-owning youths, 23 gun-dealers and numerous other denizens of Chicago's Grand Boulevard and Washington Park neighbourhoods. He did not find many satisfied customers.

Chicago has unusually tough restrictions on legal handguns. Even so the black market is surprisingly “thin”, attracting relatively few buyers and sellers. The authors reckon that the 48,000 residents of the two neighbourhoods buy perhaps 1,400 guns a year, compared with at least 200,000 cocaine purchases. Underground brokers sell guns for $150-350, a mark-up of perhaps 200% over the legal price. They also demand a fee of $30-50 for orchestrating the deal. Even then, 30-40% of the transactions fall through because the seller cannot secure a gun, gets cold feet or cannot agree on a location for the deal.

Buyers also find it hard to verify the quality of the merchandise. They often know little about the weapons they covet. “Tony”, who owns a .38 calibre handgun, learnt how to use his weapon by fiddling with it. He even put a stone in it. “Did it fire?” Mr Venkatesh asked. “I'm not sure. I think it did,” Tony said.

Fortunately for Tony and his peers, their rivals and the victims of crime cannot tell if their guns work any better than they can. Often, showing the “bulge” is enough to gain the respect of rival gangs. In robberies brandishing the weapon will usually do. Storekeepers do not wait for proof that it works.

Markets can overcome thinness, the paper says; they can also overcome illegality. But they cannot overcome both. A thin market must rely on advertising or a centralised exchange: eBay, for example, has dedicated pages matching sellers of imitation pearl pins or Annette Funicello bears to the few, scattered buyers that can be found. But such solutions are too cumbersome and conspicuous for an underground market. The drugs market, by contrast, slips through the law's fingers because of the natural density of drug transactions. Dealers can always find customers on their doorstep, and buyers can reassure themselves about suppliers through repeated custom. There are no fixed and formal institutions that the police could easily throttle.

Indeed, the authors argue that the gun market may be threadbare partly because the drug market is so plump. Gang-leaders are wary of gun-dealing because the extra police scrutiny that guns attract would jeopardise their earnings from coke and dope. Even Chicago's gang-leaders have to worry about the effect of crime on commerce.

(same study, an economist's perspective)

Finally, one of my favorites from the Center for Disease Control because it's incredibly honest in saying "We did all this work, and didn't find anything."
CDC said:
First Reports Evaluating the Effectiveness of Strategies for Preventing Violence: Firearms Laws
Summary
During 2000--2002, the Task Force on Community Preventive Services (the Task Force), an independent nonfederal task force, conducted a systematic review of scientific evidence regarding the effectiveness of firearms laws in preventing violence, including violent crimes, suicide, and unintentional injury. The following laws were evaluated: bans on specified firearms or ammunition, restrictions on firearm acquisition, waiting periods for firearm acquisition, firearm registration and licensing of firearm owners, "shall issue" concealed weapon carry laws, child access prevention laws, zero tolerance laws for firearms in schools, and combinations of firearms laws. The Task Force found insufficient evidence to determine the effectiveness of any of the firearms laws or combinations of laws reviewed on violent outcomes. (Note that insufficient evidence to determine effectiveness should not be interpreted as evidence of ineffectiveness.) This report briefly describes how the reviews were conducted, summarizes the Task Force findings, and provides information regarding needs for future research.

Librarian had some very smart comments and I just wanted to add one thing more: statistics are a dangerous game because it's very easy to bias results. Good statistics by definition accurately represent the world. This doesn't always create a compelling story for our side, and may actually work against us, though my intuition says the OP's assumption is correct. Ultimately if you're asking for statistical evidence to back up an already formed conclusion, it's not going to be very compelling to someone who disagrees with you.
 
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Anyone know of an unbiased and thorough study that proves increasing the number of conceal carry permits reduces violent crime?

Unfortunately, the only unbiased thorough studies I have seen found no evidence that CCW laws had any effect on crime, positive or negative.

I suspect that this is true for two reasons:

  1. Other trends (probably mostly economic and social) swamp any effect due to CCW laws.
  2. Statistically, most CCW holders are law abiding middle class white males. They were unlikely to be victims of crime before they obtained a CCW license, and they are unlikely to be victims of crime after they obtained a CCW license. That makes it hard to measure much change.

My conjectures may not be correct.

If you want to take a look at the studies,

http://www.nap.edu/openbook.php?isbn=0309091241

http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/rr5214a2.htm

Maybe these citations should go in a sticky - they come up a lot on THR.

Mike
 
"I've always seen that Cops hit like 10% of the time they shoot. Anyone have a stat on CCW percentage?"

I like that idea. With the right study, it would be a nice comeback when speaking to our Chief of Police on the local radio station.
 
I can still email you that study if you let me know. I do not have the original site I downloaded the PDF from anymore, but I have the PDF saved.
 
Not really from an unbiased or left leaning entity, but interesting anyway (besides, the real question isn't where the study comes from, but whether or not it's valid and/or relevant):

gunfacts.info on page 49: "Fact: 11% of police shootings kill an innocent person - about 2% of shootings by citizens kill an
innocent person."

With the following cited as their source for that information: "Cramer C and Kopel D. "Shall issue: the new wave of concealed handgun permit laws." Golden CO:
Independence Institute Issue Paper. October 17, 1994"
 
belus, I need to dig up the original study but I question the article from the economist. The article relies on the black market in chicago as being described as thin and say that the market can overcome thinness or illegality but not both. I would imagine that most of these guys already have records that prevent them from buying or owning guns legally to begin with, chicaco handgun laws aside. The same applies in much of the rest of the country but I don't believe many contest the idea that criminals who are legally barred from firearms purchase or ownership still obtain them with ease. To me the article implies that the gun laws in chicago increase the difficult of getting handguns in chicago but I don't see any logical reason to assume they're any more of a barrier than the already prohibitive laws in the rest of the country for these people. Am I trying to make more of the article than it is?
 
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