Milsurp Investment

[hdwhit]

CoalTrain49 wrote:
I have a few relics but they aren't "investments". My investments are in the stock market.

Amen.

 

[hdwhit]

Stationary Smell wrote:
I didn't mean buying all the surplus rifles I could find, assuming the market for them will significantly increase. I was just curious if you guys thought they would hold, if not gain value.

As clarified, I think most of your ex-military shooters will hold their value and may appreciate. A possible exception would be any rifle for which the supply could suddenly increase (like if they changed the law and started allowing SKSs to flood back in) could lose value.

 

[wojownik]

Depends on the firearm, the time horizon, and the cost basis (amount you originally paid). Remember - a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow (inflation). The "golden age" of milsurps was in the 1990s. Prices on some items appreciated handsomely over the years. Some ... not so much.

I have Garands, M1s and 1903A3s that I acquired via the CMP over 15 years ago. These were "below market" priced back then, and have appreciated well over time. Fair "investment" (though I will never give them up).

My "grand slams" in terms of price appreciation from when I bought the firearm include my capture Luger p.08, Finnish Luger, and Polish VIZ wz. 35. These have each appreciated at least 300% over what I paid.

In general, East European milsurps are real iffy investments (IMHO) - some rare items (like some Finnish mosin variants, etc...) have appreciated nicely, but you needed to be in the game very early on, and be able to sit on them.

My Mosin Nagants that I bought for under $79 years ago ... well those have probably kept up with inflation over time (i.e. what I could sell them for today is pretty much break even with the adjusted value of the dollar). I would have made about as much keeping the same amount of money in a plain old money market account in my bank or a longer term CD.

My Polish P-63 Czak? The real profit from this pistol would be about 25% (dollar adjusted) over 10 years. To me, an "investment" would be a 25% annual return over ten years, not 25% in 10 years.

YMMV, but investment grade firearms are a small portion of the milsurp market - the really rare or unique stuff. Keep milsurps because you enjoy them, or value their history. Price appreciation is an added bonus if it happens.

Do you guys think military surplus firearms are a good investment? I understand there might be some Garands coming back to the states... but I'm talking surplus firearms as a whole. Over the last year I've acquired a few surplus rifles (an sks, a few Mosin Nagants, Hungarian Mauser, M95 Steyr Mannlicher, Polish PA-63, ect.) and I'm curious if you think firearms like these might be decent as an investment... or maybe I should sell a few?

 

[lonegunman]

Don't forget to fund your 401(k).

Recognize that your heirs probably may not appreciate what you have, and might just sell them for pennies on the dollar.

I have a beauty of a Krag long rifle that I got from it's original owner. He was in his 80's and it was from his grandpa in the 1930's. Gramps bought it for him to use deer hunting, it was an old DCM gun an cost about $5 bucks shipped with a bandoleer of ammo. His grand kids laughed when he offered it to them, they planned to toss it.

 

[AlexanderA]

To borrow an insight from coin and stamp collecting, the greatest value appreciation will be in the rarities, the "keys" and the "missing links" in a series. For example, in U.S. military gun collecting, this means things like unaltered M1894 Krags (with the full-length cleaning rod), Mark I Springfields complete with a Pedersen Device, early gas-trap Garands, etc. If you think these are super-rare and expensive now, just wait 20 more years. I once had a chance to buy an original Pedersen Device with all the accessories for $25,000, and passed it up. (In retrospect I should have mortgaged my house and bought it.)

You have to have quite a bit of knowledge to spot opportunities like this. So if you're going to be a serious collector/investor, you have to become an expert first, in the chosen field you collect.

 

[fpgt72]

My investments are in the stock market.

Bet that hurt pretty bad a few years ago....have you recovered yet....unless your last name is rockefeller I doubt it.

The gun on the other hand will (provided laws don't change) never go down in value....a "collector firearm" I am talking about. As far as keeping up with inflation...BS, tell that to the guy that has the Colt Python, or 1970's Model 29....we can even go into anything that was advertised in the back of a gun rag in 1962. $40 Garands and $25 SVT40's.

Same goes true for many other items as well, Uncle bought a Rolex in Japan while he was going back and fourth to Vietnam....he paid a tad under $300 for the watch....in todays money the watch should cost $2500....can you buy a Submariner new for $2500.....NOPE.

It can go the other way as well.....the Ferrari market did the same thing that the stock market did....it was a bubble and it popped....YEARS ago....just now they are getting to be close to the same value.

You have to really KNOW the market, Know what you are doing and actually LIKE the THINGS you are going to buy....If you buy it be it a watch, gun, car....and you enjoy the item then it is a win from that point....if it goes up in value and your kids don't care for it, you can always sell, and leave values so your spouse can have an idea on their values.

 

[AlexanderA]

we can even go into anything that was advertised in the back of a gun rag in 1962. $40 Garands

Those $40 Garands that were advertised in 1962 (or that were sold at Sears, Western Auto, etc.) were almost certainly rewelds, since Garands had not yet been officially released, except in small numbers to verified competitors through the DCM. (I myself bought such a reweld, unknowingly, in about 1968. I still have it, to remind me of what it was like in those days.) It's fair to say that the value of rewelded Garands has not kept up with inflation.

 

[wojownik]

A couple of things.

First, the OP noted a number of firearms in the context of "investments" that really IMHO would be a stretch to consider an investment grade firearm. Specifically, an "sks, a few Mosin Nagants, Hungarian Mauser, M95 Steyr Mannlicher, Polish PA-63, ect." He did not refer to a Colt Python, Mosin dragoon, Gen. Patton's personal sidearm, etc. etc... In the context of the original post, most if not all of the referenced items have appreciated at or just above the rate of inflation. Not really super great investments from a financial perspective (but priceless investments in other terms ... fun, just to collect, etc...).

Second. Those of use who bought milsurps in the 1990s or 1980s have seen some of these firearms these appreciate very nicely. Those of us luckly to pick up something like a Colt Python for low dollars back in the day certainly have a right to grin. And some of these will continue to appreciate. But, for someone buying into the hobby today, can we really say we'll see the kinds appreciate we did back when the market was just being flooded with these items? I don't think really so - yes milsurps will continue to appreciate, and the $79 Mosin of years back is now a $250 item ... but will a Mosin be a $500 rifle a few years hence?

 

[Stationary Smell]

But, for someone buying into the hobby today, can we really say we'll see the kinds appreciate we did back when the market was just being flooded with these items? I don't think really so - yes milsurps will continue to appreciate, and the $79 Mosin of years back is now a $250 item ... but will a Mosin be a $500 rifle a few years hence?

This is what I was trying to ask I guess. I wasn't buying guns in the 80s and 90s... so I don't know what it was like then, but it certainly does seem like the market was flooded. Now with nothing coming in I'm curious if prices would continue to increase. It makes sense that they at least follow inflation.

 

[45_auto]

Bet that hurt pretty bad a few years ago....have you recovered yet....unless your last name is rockefeller I doubt it.

I'm guessing you're referring to 2008, since that was the only time the S&P 500 has been down in the past 10 years. Unless your name is "stupid" and you pulled all your money out in one of the greatest buying opportunities of our time, you've more than tripled your money since then.

S&P returns since 1928 here:

http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/histretSP.html

If someone in your family had the foresight to put $100 in the stock market in 1928 and left it (right through the Great Depression), it would worth over $325,000 today.

Figuring a 50 year span (start buying at 20, die at 70) of buying collectible guns or stocks, money you put in the stock market in 1966 would be multiplied by about 120 today. That $40 Garand would need to be worth about $5,000, and that $25 SVT40 would need to be worth about $3,000 today to match it.

Now if you were smart enough to forsee the long term effects of the 1986 GOPA, you've made a fortune on your NFA items.

Unless guns are your business, milsurp investment is a joke.

tell that to the guy that has the Colt Python, or 1970's Model 29

It appears that your investment strategy is heavily dependent upon Hollywood making a popular TV show or movie involving your weapon of choice.

 

[CoalTrain49]

Bet that hurt pretty bad a few years ago....have you recovered yet....unless your last name is rockefeller I doubt it.

Actually I've seen 2 markets collapse, 87 and 08. Recovered from the first one but it took years. I didn't see it coming. I called the second one a few days before the crash and made it out. Markets always recover. In a crash you only lose money if you sell into it. Most investors knew the 08 crash was coming weeks before it happened.

So to answer your question I never lost a dime in 08. I was ready to get back in when the market hit the bottom.

I've made enough in the market to retire with a good income. Show me someone that did that collecting milsurps.

The market isn't right for everyone. Some people don't have the stomach to watch a 100K disappear. Those people shouldn't be in the market.

 

[GunnyUSMC]

I look at it like this. Buy the guns that you like. Always try to buy below market value. I have bought some that I could double my money on the same day.
If you plan to sale a gun down the road, do not alter it.
Never sell when you need money, and never buy with money you need.
I have a good many surplus guns due to my lack of focus when it comes to collecting. But who needs focus when your having.