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NRA's muscle feared
By Ron Harris
POST-DISPATCH WASHINGTON BUREAU
04/21/2007
WASHINGTON — As the nation mourns the 32 students killed at Virginia Tech last week, the issue of gun control has resurfaced, as it has in the wake of similar mass shootings.
This time, the debate is expected to be muted, and political analysts, gun control advocates and politicians predict no further restrictions on guns will result. The main reason: the political power of those who favor gun rights, led by the National Rifle Association.
For instance, when congressional Democrats met during their caucus two days after the Virginia Tech shootings, nobody brought up the subject, one Democrat said.
An Associated Press-Ipsos poll after the Virginia Tech shootings showed Americans are still divided on the issue. Forty-seven percent said firearm controls should be tightened, 38 percent said they should remain unchanged, and 11 percent said they should be loosened — about the same as in a January survey. A Zogby-MSN interactive poll showed most did not believe stricter gun control policies would help prevent massacres like last week's.
Any new talk of gun control this year is expected to go the way of proposed legislation after the massacre at Columbine High School in 1999. Even then, when, according to a Washington Post/ABC News poll, nearly 70 percent of Americans wanted stricter gun laws, no gun control legislation made it through Congress.
The ability of gun rights activists and the NRA to mobilize members, money and votes over a single issue makes them feared by many of the nation's politicians.
"It scares the hell out of them," said Jim Nowlan, former Republican Illinois state legislator and professor of American politics at the University of Chicago.
Sen. Claire McCaskill, D-Mo., said she expects some conversation about gun control.
"But you've got to at some point acknowledge that the NRA has amassed incredible political power. I don't know how many conventions of advocacy groups attract 60,000 people," she said, referring to the group's recent convention in St. Louis, "but I venture to say none."
What many legislators fear is that the NRA will turn its power on them, as it did on Rep. Bart Stupak, D-Mich.
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After his election in 1992, Stupak, an avid gun owner and hunter, was endorsed by the NRA and given an A rating from the group. But in 1999, he voted for 48-hour background checks at gun shows, and the organization went after him.
Stupak won re-election in 2000 but only after the fight of his political life. The NRA selected a candidate to run against him and poured money and human resources into the race.
It has been a signature tactic of the organization, analysts say.
That kind of opposition creates concern among politicians because gun rights advocates judge candidates solely on their positions about guns.
"Single-issue voters represent only 4 or 5 percent of the electorate, but they have power far beyond the slice of voting public they represent, and that clearly is the case with gun owners," Nowlan said. "Politicians look at the margins of their base, they worry about 1 percent, 2 percent or 3 percent going from their column to the opponents' column."
Vulnerable freshmen
So Democrats and Republicans here, many facing re-election next year, are trying to steer clear of the issue, Stupak said.
Steven Smith, a political science professor at Washington University, said: "Who's going to remember your vote on gun control in 2008? Most legislators know it's really only going to be the gun owner who is going to remember."
Most vulnerable are the 53 freshmen congressmen — 40 Democrats, 13 Republicans — who will be up for election in 2008. They don't have the track record to defend against an onslaught by the gun lobby, analysts said.
"If I'm advising anybody who is a freshman in the House, I'm advising them not to cross the NRA, because you're going to have real problems," said a senior Democratic aide on Capitol Hill.
And if that person didn't listen to that advice?
"You can stick a fork in him," the staffer said, "because he's done."
NRA officials declined to be interviewed.
In a news release, they said: "This is a time to grieve and to heal. This is not the time for political discussions, public policy debates or to advance a political agenda. NRA will participate in this discussion and others at an appropriate time."
While more gun restrictions are unlikely, some are talking of strengthening current laws.
Rep. John D. Dingell, D-Mich., who once served on the NRA's board of directors, is talking with the NRA about introducing a bill that would give states money to help them supply the federal government with information on the mental health of those attempting to buy firearms. The law would fine states for not submitting information to the National Instant Criminal Background Check System.
Reversal in Missouri
The ability of gun rights advocates to influence politicians may be best demonstrated by its efforts in Missouri.
In 1999, the state's voters rejected a proposal to allow residents to carry concealed handguns. But four years later, after intensive lobbying by the NRA and others, legislators voted for the conceal-carry law by more than 2-1 ratio.
One state senator, Michael Gibbons, R-Kirkwood cast a deciding vote even though 70 percent of his district had voted against the measure.
A big reason the NRA wields so much power, gun control advocates say, is that there is no countervailing force that would reward politicians who vote for gun control and punish those who don't.
"That's the problem," said Kristen Rand, legislative director for the Violence Policy Center, a gun-control advocacy group in Washington. "The NRA is more powerful than we are. They're so loud, they're so they're so obsessed and they're so focused."
Stupak, a former police officer, said that although he knows some people are worried about the NRA, they should not let it influence their vote.
"I would hope, no matter what the group is, the NRA or the Chamber of Commerce," he said, "that members will look at the legislation and vote the courage of our convictions and not fear of political retaliation."
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