NYC Crime Stats - Is Concealed Carry Necessary?

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This is a continuation of a discussion started in this thread: http://thehighroad.org/showthread.php?s=&threadid=82703

In short: RINO Bloomberg announced yesterday that NYC has the lowest crime rate of the top ten big cities in the US. NYC is for all intents and purposes completely disarmed with only the police, the gliterati and a few well connected folks having the right to carry.

The question is, do the modern policing techniques implemented by Mayor Rudy represented an alternative to concealed carry? Can the nanny state make it safe for me?

Said another way, the pro-2a crowd can point to Florida and then to the social experiments going on in the UK and Australia and say: personal accountability and responsibility work: CCW laws reduce crime. Outlawing guns increases crime.

Can we still say that when we point to NYC? Is there Lott-like statistical evidence we can show?

(Let's make this a productive discussion - try to keep the emotional rhetoric to a minimum)
 
The question is, do the modern policing techniques implemented by Mayor Rudy represented an alternative to concealed carry? Can the nanny state make it safe for me?
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No. The nanny State can only lull you into a false belief that you no longer have a right and responsibility to provide for your own self defense.

NYC might be on the lower end for serious crime amongst the 10 largest US cities, but that still leaves thousands of assaults, rapes, etc. that are still suffered by the average citizen.

Good policing is only a supplement to the individuals responsibility for their own self-defense, or a provision made for those like the elderly or very young who cannot defend themselves.

Said another way, the pro-2a crowd can point to Florida and then to the social experiments going on in the UK and Australia and say: personal accountability and responsibility work: CCW laws reduce crime. Outlawing guns increases crime.

Can we still say that when we point to NYC? Is there Lott-like statistical evidence we can show
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Lott's work is important in that it shows crime generally decreases when shall-issue concealed carry is adopted by a State. However none of his statistics should be used to justify concealed carry. They only point out a benefit of the practice. The right to self defense is exactly that, a "natural right" of all men that exists for the individual's benefit.

The RKBA is not predicated on a "societal benefit" philosophy like, for example, so much of Tort law. It is concerned with the individual's rights.
 
Having the lowest crime rate of the top ten big cities... Isn't that a bit like being the skinniest hog on the block?

Concealed carry reduces crime, and banning guns increases it, but that's not to say that you can't reduce it again by pouring on absurd amounts of police work. Just think what lots of police, AND an armed populace, could accomplish?
 
The RKBA does not require statistical justification.

It doesn't matter if bearing arms increases or decreases crime, it is still a right guaranteed by the Constitution.

Trying to justify that right with statistics weakens the idea that it is a basic human right.
 
The RKBA is not predicated on a "societal benefit" philosophy like, for example, so much of Tort law. It is concerned with the individual's rights.
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This is a good argument, we don't have to play the stat game because it is a right - unfortunately, all the legislation and licensing concerning firearms would indicate that it is no longer a right but a privledge. Sad but true.

Trying to justify that right with statistics weakens the idea that it is a basic human right.
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Too late! You don't need licenses and permits to excercise rights. The right to keep and bear arms is a defacto privledge.
 
Having the lowest crime rate of the top ten big cities... Isn't that a bit like being the skinniest hog on the block?
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Exactly.

NYC still has a high crime rate compared to the national average. Not only that, there are allegations that the city has been cooking the books in regards to crime stats. This is nothing new, as NYC has always looked for...well...lets call them “creativeâ€...ways to make the city look safer. At one time, the city didn’t include subway crime in its crime stats because a separate force handled that crime (the Transit Police) and the city was only reporting crime handled by the regular police force.

The police force itself is complaining about cooked books because the city is using them to justify force reductions. As a strange aside, the police force is also using the cooked books to lobby for a pay raise for a job well done. Go figure...

The fact is that despite the “good numbers†reported by the Bloomberg administration, the general feeling in the city is that crime is up and the city is not safe.

The other day, at 10:00 in the morning, a man opened his door to what he thought was the FedEx man. Three robbers stormed in and killed him. This city is not safe...not by a long shot.
 
Graystar,

Reading the news online a minute ago and the headlines for the Post and the News included:

SAFE AT HOME: NYC CRIME DROPPED IN '03

AND:

Nab parolee in S.I. arson & teen rape
Dad of 15 killed - driver held in DWI
Biz school CEO is shot in subway
MONITORS & POLS RIP SILVER OVER AVIS FAVORS
MALL COPS BUST 'PICTURE PERV'

I grew up in Greenpoint. I went to high school in Manhattan and college in Brooklyn. My father has been there since he was born before the depression.

I know its not safe. Never has been. Not the point.

And again, comparing NYC crime stats to other places in the country may not be statistically significant - people behave differently when they are squished together.

I want a solid, Lott-like argument that what they are doing there is not an alternative to the right (privledge) to keep and bear arms and personal accountability.
 
I want a solid, Lott-like argument that what they are doing there is not an alternative to the right (privledge) to keep and bear arms and personal accountability.
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I have something like that that I wrote up. It's a bit long. I can email you a Wordpad document of it, if you want to see.
 
Lowest crime rate among the top ten cities? Hmmm.

So he's bragging about having the 10th highest crime rate in the nation. I wouldn't call that an example of the success of NYC gun laws.
 
So he's bragging about having the 10th highest crime rate in the nation. I wouldn't call that an example of the success of NYC gun laws.
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An anecdotal reply.

From the New York Post: "Of the nation's 230 cities with 100,000 or more people, New York now ranks a stellar 211th in crime rate: (reference: http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tm...40525/lo_nypost/safeathomenyccrimedroppedin03)

The FBI crime stats are here: http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/ucr.htm

What I was looking for was something that said, NYC crime is lower than other cities crime THAT HAVE concealed carry laws - that hurts our argument that CCW laws are the way to go.

Since NYC has lower crime than 210 other cities I am assuming that has to be true because most states are now right to carry - but the stats provided on the FBI site do not easily show that and I need to do something else right now. I will look at this again later and try to come up with some statement that says NYC with no weapons has lower crime than cities XYZ with CCW laws.

Two other notes:
- comparing NYC to cities with 100k and above doesn't seem right. A city of 100k and a city of 8 million are vastly different. Not sure its meaningful one way or the other.

- the Post article above ends with a discussion of how some NYC precincts are being accused of fudging the numbers.
 
I've always felt that no matter how low the statistic, it is no fun in a situation like this when you are that statistic! There might only be 1 out of 100 people or whatever the statistic is of people getting mugged, and while 99 people are safe, what do you do when you are that one person?

Of course, our right doesn't hinge on statistics as others have said, especially as Cool Hand Luke said.

I have never been a crime victim in NYC while living and attending school, and I still have 60 more credits of college to finish here. I don't have a pistol permit upstate either, of course, I feel that I shouldn't really have to get one to begin with. If I could truly exercise my right to carry, I would, even though I've never been a crime victim, though I believe that has more to do with being alert and observant. Better to have and not need than need and not have though, and so the idea that NYC may be safe doesn't really mean much to me, even though I do feel safe when in the city.
 
Go to the FBI crime stats. Go to Crime in the United States for 2002. Then look at What you want to look at is the Index of Crime, Table 6, Metropolitan Statistical Area, 2002

http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/cius_02/xl/02tbl06.xls

This list metro areas, which include more than just the city, but that's about as close to city stats as your going to get without getting all the data and compiling it yourself. Here are some stats from the sheet:

No carry
NYC - 9.4 million inhabitants 717.2 violent crimes per 100,000
Los Angeles - 9.8 million inhabitants 902.4 violent crimes per 100,000

Carry
Dallas - 3.6 million inhabitants 682.5 violent crimes per 100,000
Houston - 4.3 million inhabitants 814.2 violent crimes per 100,000
Miami - 2.3 million inhabitants 1116.2 violent crimes per 100,000
Atlanta - 4.3 million inhabitants 525.1 violent crimes per 100,000

It's really impossible to draw any conclusions from this data.
 
I've always felt that the "lower crime rate" argument that we have used over the years has been somewhat specious- as graystar stated, it's too difficult to draw substantive conclusions from the data.

The bottom line is- a state/municipality that denies it's inhabitants the tool(s) for self defense, and actively discourages the principle, is morally illegitimate.
 
It also should be noted that personal defense has nothing to do with crime rates. Even if there were practically no crime to speak of in the country...everyone has the right to defend their lives at the time when they are threatened with bodily harm. Crime rates mean nothing...I'm only concerned about that one criminal act that might be perpetrated on me.
 
Graystar:
Only if you have the permit. Otherwise, you are going to be arrested, even if it was a good shoot.
 
Only if you have the permit. Otherwise, you are going to be arrested, even if it was a good shoot.
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Yep. And I got one. :D

Actually, the last guy that shot in self-defense with an unregistered gun was let off. The DA agreed to drop the gun charge in exchange for testimony against the robber. Obviously, the guy would probably have ended up testifying anyway. So they basically just let him go. I thought that was an extraordinary move, and a fantastic way to get around the gun charge.
 
I thought I saw a TV special on crime in NYC awhile back. They talked about the new "pro-active" policing and how it reduced crime.

To which the left-leaning journalist couldn't help commenting(the mayor was a republican) meant stopping and harassing blacks and other minorities who fit a profile.

Did anyone else see this on TV?
 
Maybe they are doing what merry old england was doing for a while. If the same person shoots 17 people that only gets reported as one"crime"...
 
Born and raised in NYC. Had a gun put to my head twice. Relieved of my wallet twice. Now I live in the 'burbs and carry. I do not go into NYC for love or money.

Precinct commanders cook the books. It is good for their promotional aspirations as well as the mayor and the powers that be! Lots of violent crime goes unreported. I did not report my being mugged because law enforcement is a joke in NYC for the average person! People still carry monet just in case they are mugged. Baaahhhhhhh!!! Baahhhhhhhh!!!

New York's laws started out, as the politicians like to say, in order to keep honest gun owners safe. A few dollars for each gun registered. We can track stolen guns more easily they said. Now the price and the wait are ridiculous! God forbid you don't renew your registrations on time!

Bottom line is it is best to stay out of New York City. I would not spend a nickle in that draconian anti-gun place!:fire:
 
Unfortunately, by the time you know definitively that Concealed Carry is necessary for you , it's too late.
 
Graystar,

Took a look at the numbers and yes I guess I agree, not conclusive.

NYC in the lower half of violent crime, but LA in the upper.

But the two lowest are both right to carry . . . . .

Hmmmmmm
 
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