Odds please

[BBQJOE]

I was in the shop doing a few things, and as life is, there were a few loose primers on the floor.

I reached for my drill index, opened it, and the second to largest bit in a standard index fell out.
It hit the floor, but on the way struck a primer setting it off and making me jump out of my skin.

So I ask, what are the odds?

 

[LoneGoose]

Inevitable if you don't pick up primers as soon as you spill them.

 

[Officers'Wife]

Making several assumptions- (size of area, # of primers on the floor, trajectory of the bit) I would guesstimate the odds as about 1 in 20. Throw in Murphy and you hit about 50/50.

 

[bannockburn]

BBQJOE

I don't know the odds but I would bet there's more than just a few loose primers on the floor.

 

[chwebmaker]

very slim odds for sure! I still have primers on the floor next to my reloading bench and have yet to set one off and I have mashed in the sides on quite a few without setting them off. At least you didn't have a pile of powder sitting on the floor!

 

[200Apples]

.

Inevitable if you don't pick up primers as soon as you spill them.

Dang straight, skippy!



Keep your reloading area clean enough to eat from! Cheeziss.

 

[joem1945]

I had a wrench fall off my bench and set off a primer. I didn't think I dropped any live ones. WRONG!

 

[txblackout]

by definition 100%

 

[Bobson]

Mathematical odds? Depends on the open floor space. Average garage is about 22' x 22' (or 484 sq ft). A primer is, what, a quarter-inch across? Lets say 0.25 sq in. There are 144 sq inches per sq foot, multiplied by 4 since we're dealing with quarter-inches, multiplied by the 484 sq ft from before, equals 278,784 primer-sized units in one average garage. How much floor space was actually available, though? Then again, you dropped the bit near the toolbox (and were mathematically likely to), which means much of the open garage space is irrelevant.

1:100,000 is probably the closest of the options available.

No, I'm not fun at parties.

 

[ApacheCoTodd]

You're missing an option.

By your parameter so far... 1:1.

I went to a school on Ft Bragg back in the day. Our team was split into the main group supported by 2 snipers and 1 grenadier. My friend Kevin ended up pulling the grenadier support and picked a straight M-79 over a 203.

So, we're idling away while the grenadiers registered their weapons shooting at a 55 gallon drum in the distance.

Kevin loads up a 40mm, sets to fire and lights it off.

Damn thing went dead in the drum kinda wrecking it.

Kevin being quick witted and riotously funny, leaps up, throws his hands up and hollers: "Thank you very much... I'm outa here..." One of the instructors says: "Whoa... where ya goin?" and Kevin says it can only go downhill from here - he's stopping at 100%!


Todd.

 

[C.R.]

If you are in the habbit of leaving live primers laying around , odds are pretty good somethhing bad will happen

 

[Water-Man]

What difference does it make?

 

[Sergei Mosin]

Friend of mine dropped a tray of .45 rounds on a carpeted floor. Naturally, one of them landed primer-down on a nail sticking up just a bit from the floor, although still under the carpet. Bang!

Murphy was an optimist.

 

[FROGO207]

You could go with mathematical odds OR you could just realize that it stands to reason that sometimes things "happen". Kind of when lightning strikes nearby.

 

[gbran]

No matter the odds, you probably couldn't have done this if you tried.

 

[Steel Horse Rider]

As a movie fool once said: "Stupid is as stupid does." I think that about sums it up.

 

[the Real Alpo]

My first thought - it must be nice to be rich. Drop live primers on the floor and leave them there? When you head to work in the morning, do you fling a handful of nickels in the street?

Second thought was the odds are fifty/fifty. It'll either happen or it won't.

 

[LoneGoose]

I'm pretty sure we all can see OP's experience as a cautionary tale to remind us that cleanliness is next to safeliness (or whatever) without being harsh on the guy. We're all a caring and sharing community here. Now let's have a group hug.

THR rocks.

 

[The Bushmaster]

Guarantied to happen everytime. Have you met my friend Murphy?

 

[ApacheCoTodd]

Makes me think of something my very smart Pop told me:

Lightning is at least exactly likely to strike the same place twice as most anywhere else.

Has anyone else read the stories of those RAF Mosquito pilots who hit there target, then, hit the deck and out to sea?

They were being chased home by murderous "88s" and the navigator would be calling out the most recent splashes and the pilot would bear on them knowing that the gunners never fired twice on the same bearing, elevation etc..

Really not related but it came to mind none the less.


Todd.

 

[bangswitch]

I figure it's 1 in 3 chance.
You either miss the primer, you hit the primer but it doesn't fire, or you hit the primer and it fires.

 

[kozak6]

A primer is a fun size serving of impact sensitive explosive.

If you leave them strewn about willy nilly, something exciting is bound to happen eventually.

 

[BigBore44]

I've got somewhere In the neighborhood of 30,000 primers. And suddenly I feel the urge to play this game.... No wait. No I don't.

 

[bugmania]

It has been said that the chances of a piece of buttered bread landing butter side down on the carpet is directly proportional to the cost of the carpet. In this case though, I would say that the chance of this happening is directly proportional to the cost of a clean pair of underwear.

 

[jakk280rem]

I'm a mathematical idiot so I will guess 50%. If an item heavy and hard enough is dropped on a surface with a live primer present, it either will or will not set it off.