Oh snap! Kurds closer to independence than I thought

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beerslurpy

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Got this off volokh conspiracy. The kurds seem like they are lining up their ducks for an independence bid sooner or later. We may actually see an independent kurdistan for the first time in several centuries. Fascinating times we live in.

http://www.michaeltotten.com/archives/001060.html
In January 2005 the Iraqi Kurds held an informal referendum. More than 80 percent turned out to vote. 98.7 percent of those voted to secede from Iraq. Not only have the Kurds long dreamed of independence, when they look south they see only Islamism, Baathism, blood, fire, and mayhem. . . .

Arab Iraqis who want to “keep” Kurdistan ought to thank the heavens for Jalal Talabani, Iraq’s new president and the party chief of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan. He belongs to the 1.3 percent of Iraqi Kurds who want to stay connected to Baghdad. The Kurds love Talabani, whom they affectionately call “Mam Jalal” (Uncle Jalal), for leading the militarily successful fight against Saddam Hussein.

Meanwhile, Masoud Barzani, President of Kurdistan and party chief of the Kurdistan Democratic Party, is playing the “bad cop” role. While Talabani is busy in Baghdad trying to hammer out the best federalism bargain the Kurds could ever hope for, Barzani broods in his mountain palace and openly threatens secession.

Not one Iraqi flag is flown in Kurdistan’s capital of Erbil, which doubles as the stronghold of Barzani’s KDP. Only maps will tell you that Erbil is part of Iraq. The Iraqi flag is flown on government buildings in Suleimaniya, the stronghold of the PUK. But it’s the old Iraqi flag, the pre-Saddam Iraqi flag, the one that doesn’t have Allahu Akbar scrawled across the middle of it.

The Kurdistan Regional Government has its own ministers. They report to no one in Baghdad. The Kurds have their own military. They have their own economy. They have their own internal border, and they are its only policemen. The Kurds even have their own foreign policy. Their government is internationally recognized. When Masoud Barzani travels to foreign capitals he is recognized as the President of Iraqi Kurdistan.
Arab Christians from the south and the center of Iraq are actually given money and housing by the KRG if they move north. Insisting on a purely Kurdish region or a purely Muslim one is the last thing on the establishment’s mind. What they want is geographic federalism or sovereignty. And they need as many well-educated, competent, and trustworthy people as they can find. They don’t care about race, and they don’t care about religion. They are concerned strictly with numbers and security. It's just that some groups are more trusted than others. Arab Christians will never join an Islamist jihad, as everyone knows. And the Kurds trust Arab Christians not to join the Baath either. Arab Muslims can and do move north to Kurdistan as well, but they need approval from the KRG and they are not given incentives.
 
With Turkey in the mix, this could get far TOO interesting. But I do hope for their independence.
 
In case it isnt obvious, another israeli-style (and pro israel) ethnically non-arab government in the middle east would be a huge slap in the face to a lot of people we dont like.
 
It'd be a great thing!

Let's just hope Turkey doesn't go to war over it, that's all. Puts the US in a bind, and screws the Kurds.
 
Headless Thompson Gunner said:
Would an independent Kurdistan be a bad thing?

Not if it keeps a religious-civil-war from breaking out....

Im not entirely sure how likely a war of such a sort would be.

Wow i am typing strangely today.
 
Our glorious leaders in D.C will sell them out just like they did during the first Gulf War.

Poor Kurds, poor anybody who trusts what comes out of that rathole in D.C
 
In case it isnt obvious, another israeli-style (and pro israel) ethnically non-arab government in the middle east would be a huge slap in the face to a lot of people we dont like.

It will be a bigger slap in the face to people we do like....like...

Pro-Israel Turkey and...

Secular Iraqis (the ones we're trying to hand a government to).

I believe the Kurds have earned something and deserve a safe place, but without handing them a brand new army fully equipped by the United States, Kurdish statehood is only going to lead to a bloodbath in the near future.
 
Our glorious leaders in D.C will sell them out just like they did during the first Gulf War.

Poor Kurds, poor anybody who trusts what comes out of that rathole in D.C

Seems like you don't know too much.

The Kurds are a strong ally of ours and if they don't hold a grudge then why should you? They started building their institutions long before we invaded. And they did it under the protection of the United States and Britons "no-fly" zones.

Of course that doesn't fit your anti Bush template. The Democrats better hope there isn't a huge influx of Kurds into the US, they will never get elected with people who actually know the facts on the ground voting.
 
GoRon said:
Seems like you don't know too much.

We sold the Kurds out during the first Gulf War by promising them that if they revolted we would back them.

Of course when they did revolt, Schwarzkopf was given strict orders to sit on his arse while right in front of him Saddams helicopters gunned the Kurdish Rebellion down.

Might want to take off your headphones and stop listening to Michael "Weiner" Savage all day, it's bad for your health.

I don't hold any type of grudge. Just simply pointing out the fact that anybody who trusts the USG is just about the biggest moron on earth, doesn't matter if a Demopublican is in office.
 
We sold the Kurds out during the first Gulf War by promising them that if they revolted we would back them.

Of course when they did revolt, Schwartzkopf was given strict orders to sit on his arse while right in front of him Saddams helicopters gunned the Kurdish Rebellion down.

And they have gotten over it. They are huge supporters of the US and they have a better grasp of world politics than you obviously.

If you want to know where the Kurds are on this subject you should read a very recent article in National Geographic on Kurdish independence. It has already de facto happened. And they love the US in spite of our capitulating to the UN weenies and not supporting them.
 
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GoRon said:
And they have gotten over it. They are huge supporters of the US and they have a better grasp of world politics than you obviously.

If you want to know where the Kurds are on this subject you should read a very recent article in National Geographic on Kurdish independence. It has already de facto happened. And they love the US in spite of our capitulating to the UN weenies and not supporting them.

I'll check out the article - thanks for mentioning it.
 
If we had to go into Iraq on the ground, we should at least have divided it into three nations. What we know today as "Iraq" was actually an arbitrary creation of the long-defunct British empire.
 
Don't only think of Turkey as a factor here - the same applies to Iran. A great big chunk of western Iran is Kurdish, and the folks there would like nothing more than to join an independent Kurdistan along with their brothers and sisters in Iraq and Turkey. Given Iran's uncompromising revolutionary-Islamic government, this could be a wonderful issue on which to divide that country, and I daresay the White House is fully aware of the possibilities.
 
If the Kurds are trusting the USA to support a bid for their independence, they deserve whatever happens to them. We've sold them out twice. If they trust us again, I consider that proof that they're not very bright.
 
They started building their institutions long before we invaded.
Hmmm.

I'm trying to figure out if the Kurds are more like Texans, after toughing out Santa Anna, or...

[/quote]We sold the Kurds out during the first Gulf War by promising them that if they revolted we would back them.[/quote]

Or more like Cubans, after the Bay of Pigs.

Or, after Saddam butchered so many of them, something along the lines of Armenians after 1.5 million of them were slaughtered in 1915 or perhaps a micro version of European jews after the Nazis.

Rick
 
Kurdistan = oil. A large percentage of Iraq's oil reserves is in Kurdish territory. Iran does not want an independent Kurdistan. An independent, non-arabic, democratic Kurdland would be a huge slap to the locals.
 
I think a powerful, wealthy US protected kurdistan would be a huge stick in the eye to syria and iran. I think the Turks would not get too worried if we could show that we exert enough influence to keep them from fomenting revolt in the kurdish areas of Turkey. A Kurdish and secularist persian revolt in iran would be quite a mess if they happened at the same time as a us invasion.
 
I think a powerful, wealthy US protected kurdistan would be a huge stick in the eye to syria and iran.

It'd be more like a giant steak on a silver platter.

If Kurdistan goes independent, we are guaranteed that every Iraqi election for the next hundred years will be Tehran-approved and sympathetic to the Islamist cause. Syria will eventually fall, and the Hizbollah and Hamas cohorts will be right there to pick up the slack.

Rocking the boat in any fashion is a bad idea...there are all kinds of factors working together right now to strengthen the islamist position, and a big huge gift to the kurds would be another.
 
The Kurds sound like a people that the US would not have to loan a whole bunch of troops to keep safe. Some material and logistical support is likely all they need. If I am not mistaken, we did not send large numbers of troops into Kurdish territory during the recent war. We sent in SOF's who helped them kick out Sadaams guys themselves. I have much more hope for them than I do the rest of Iraq. If they are supporting Christians, I like that even better.
 
Some material and logistical support is likely all they need. If I am not mistaken, we did not send large numbers of troops into Kurdish territory during the recent war.

But what happens to the Iraqi electorate without any kurds in the mix?
 
My first choice would be an Iraqi representative democracy with no fragmentation and three (or more) ethnic groups living, and governing, in harmony. Seems to me like this would be the best "stick in the eye" so to speak to the theocracies and monarchies in the region.

If the Kurds feel they absolutely must have independence, then this would be my second choice. Problem would be keeping Turkey in the fold of NATO and our allies. If a seperate Kurdistan could be accomplished without changing the Turkish border then that'd be a good thing. Problem is then two-fold, 1) I agree with a previous poster that suggests that the "lesser" Iraq would become nothing more than a western province of Iran, and 2) The Kurds would have a hard time reigning in their own to avoid attempting southern Turkish unrest or even a land grab for parts of southern Turkey. Overall, one heck of a tough diplomatic position for both the USA and NATO as a whole!

Worst case scenario - Kurds separate and we don't support them at all and Israel does support them. Potentially a total war situation in the middle east :-(


Personally, I'm praying for the road we're already on working out in the long run.... but I am an known optimist.
 
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