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Rise in firearms related homicides after years of decline.

Discussion in 'Activism Discussion and Planning' started by hso, Dec 14, 2018.

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  1. hso

    hso Moderator Staff Member

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    Ignoring gross numbers, the rate of firearms related homicides has shifted upward the past two data years from averaging 3.5/100,000 to roughly 4.5/100,000 in 2016 and 2017. They downward trend of homicides has been a keystone argument for 2A supporters pointing out that firearms sales and carry have risen while homicide rates have fallen.

    Try to ignore the suicide bars and focus on the homicide bars.
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  2. George P

    George P Member

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    Did I read the citations correctly saying this was done by the CDC?
     
  3. hso

    hso Moderator Staff Member

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    Yes, and under the current Administration they're far less prone to the bias seen during the Clinton administration so we shouldn't discount it out of hand. Remember that we saw similar trend change in the UCR from the FBI and pointed to the 5 major cities contributing to the murder rate rise.
     
  4. VoodooMountain

    VoodooMountain Member

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    I would like to see good data on the correlation/causation of gang activity and firearm homicides.

    I do remember seeing FBI stats about 5 years ago showing more people were murdered with blunt objects like bats and hammers than rifles.

    I also remember that falling on deaf ears.
     
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  5. hso

    hso Moderator Staff Member

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    VoodooMountain, you can go to the FBI Uniform Crime Report to see that data or look at one of the threads discussing it. The data is still the same, more people were murdered with blunt object or knives or even hands/feet than with rifles.

    Suicides by firearms are the greatest rate increases, but the murder rate has climbed in 2016 and 2017. We'll have to see what the 2018 data shows to know what the 3 year trend is, but we'd better prepare ourselves instead of sticking our heads in the sand.

    Best response is, "Of course we're concerned in any increase in rate of homicides, but a decades long trend isn't derailed by a few years".
     
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  6. MachIVshooter

    MachIVshooter Member

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    My argument has long been that violent crime rates trend independently of gun ownership & gun laws, that the reason we tend to see lower crime rates in areas with high gun ownership rates is that those areas generally have lower population density and more homogeneous populations. I believe there's a component to the ownership rates correlating with lower home invasion rates, criminals knowing they're more likely to be shot breaking into a home in a rural community than suburban or urban dwellings, but home invasions don't account for much of the VCR anyway.

    I've shut down lots of anti gun arguments this way, but have also tempered the fervor of many fellow gun owners who hadn't considered that and enjoyed being able to cite the continually falling rates after the Clinton ban expired. It's a problem with understanding the difference between correlation, causation and coincidence.

    No, crime rates trend with socio-economic factors more than anything.
     
  7. AlexanderA
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    AlexanderA Member

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    The raw firearms crime statistics don't sway public opinion too much as long as these statistics reflect thug-on-thug violence and suicides. If violence spills over and affects "normal" people or, heaven forbid, there's a mass shooting, that's when the calls for gun control increase. We need to be more granular in burrowing down into these statistics.
     
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  8. Enfielder

    Enfielder Member

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    More guns sold means more guns deaths. It's not tough to make that correlation. The more lollipops sold means more choking accidents. People are ****** and shoot each other. They've been doing it since the invention of the means. Before that, they stabbed, clubbed, or beat each other. It's our natural history.

    It ain't right but it's ain't stopping soon. It's up to the individual to control themselves but lots of people don't have that kind of control.
     
  9. <*(((><
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    <*(((>< Contributing Member

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    Emphatically agree with all you said, this is my belief as well. Population density is a root of a lot of socio-economic problems and gun crime being one of those. The county I live in has one of the highest concealed carry permit holders per capita in the nation and we have very little crime issues.
     
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  10. <*(((><
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    <*(((>< Contributing Member

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    Thanks @hso for bringing this up. Like you said we all need to be ready for this to be used against gun ownership and not put our head in the sand.

    Just to be clear, when reading various reports on gun statistics and numbers be aware that homicides on some reports (not saying this one necessarily) inappropriately lump the following in gun homicides: justifiable self-defense, suicides, accidental gun deaths, justifiable police shootings, etc.

    I've pointed the above out to some friends in the past on a particular report that lumped those with the homicide rate to pad the numbers for their bias against gun ownership.
     
  11. MachIVshooter

    MachIVshooter Member

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    May not be tough, but it's wrong. Just as wrong as concluding that more guns equals less crime. Maybe even more so considering that gun ownership rates have trended down for decades whilst privately owned firearms have increased by orders of magnitude. There is a conclusion to be drawn there; a smaller percentage of the population own more guns per capita. It would be ridiculous to believe a man who didn't commit violent crimes when he owned 6 guns suddenly became homicidal when his collection reached 20.
     
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  12. fastbolt

    fastbolt Member

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    I'd not discount the possible effect of how some criminals may have become emboldened by the public sentiment against LE's use of force against suspects in some jurisdictions, and the much mentioned "Ferguson Effect".

    I'd also not discount the possible influence of other known or unknown societal factors that may sometimes seem to be related to "spikes" in some criminal activity.

    Now, if this continues for 10 years, there may be a trend happening, and it would beg the question "Why?" ...
     
  13. hso

    hso Moderator Staff Member

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    Yes, we need to be able to understand the information from the usual suspects and parse what they're putting out.
     
  14. hso

    hso Moderator Staff Member

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    That hasn't been the case until 2016 and 2017 had murder rates go up. Prior to that we had a HUGE increase in gun sales over the previous decade while homicides fell. That counter correlation was key in the arguments that the gun isn't the issue. More guns have not meant more gun deaths.
     
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  15. boom boom
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    boom boom Moderator Staff Member

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    There have been a lot of different theories about why homicide and crime rates go up and down with a little agreement. The issue is that criminals decide on an individual basis to commit violent crimes and we are trying from aggregate level data to go back to figure out what individual criminals are doing. Part of the reason that the media focuses on guns so much is that A) they have a predisposed idea that guns are bad, B) it helps cover up unpleasant facts in today's society.

    I am just going to focus on one massive driver of homicide and violent crime statistics.

    First, large cities have a violent crime problem and much of that problem is related to buying and selling drugs, struggles among dope dealers, and the temptation by users to acquire the drugs by illegal actions. In some cities, this has led to political corruption, e.g. Chicago, where gangs have affiliated themselves with politicians. Not a new thing, the old political machines used to do this as well.

    Second, gangs have served as an alternative family for a lot of young males and replaced any real home life and values that these individuals might have developed. Like it or not, nuclear family disintegration has effectively removed positive influences such as working, getting a job, etc. with street values of predators and prey. Gangs particularly target young teenagers below 18 for bad deeds because of lighter sentences given to these individuals. The young teens in turn look up to the older gang members for acceptance. The cost of acceptance is do the dirty work the surviving old gang members, not in prison or dead, survived doing. The rules, stability, sense of place in society, are all internal within a gang and they look at outside society as prey and irrelevant to their world. The situation has created mass numbers of sociopaths. The collapse of most inner city schools and discipline within those schools hasn't helped nor have the social workers as a whole. The overall lack of suitable blue collar jobs in inner cities, ironically in part because of crime and uneducated workforce, has made matters even worse.

    Increasing ethnic conflict among gangs is also something that makes it worse. Most lower rung jobs in cities, what ones there are, have went to new immigrants, illegal or legal. Employers justifiably argue that they work hard, stay of trouble, work cheap, are willing to do dangerous, off the books, jobs etc. Many immigrant small businesses also practice nepotism in hiring. However, effectively they have locked existing low income residents out of those jobs.

    If you effectively deal with inner city crime, you will eliminate a lot of the homicides occurring. We know what the problem is, the issue is no one is accept some pretty strong medicine to get there that effectively the voting public in such places or even states will not accept to resolve it.

    So, politicians simply take the easy way out--why not simply blame firearms for the violent crimes. And when those are gone, blame knives and acid or illegal importation of firearms as England has done, and then blame drinking, drugs, etc. and try to stamp those out. The public simply wants something done and is relatively ignorant of what has to occur when the underlying problem of violent crime has multiple causes and unpopular effective solutions. Eventually, if society gets bad enough criminals, they will simply move to eradicate criminals themselves--see the Philippines for example.
     
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  16. Hunter86004

    Hunter86004 Member

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    Population density has, for a long time, been known to cause problems. I remember back as far as the 1960s experiments using rats showed the behavior in rats would change dramatically as their population grew. IIRC, the experiment was observing the behavior of two rats in a cage and the rats seemed to act normally, but the more rats that were added, the worse their behavior toward each other became. We humans aren't a whole lot different than those rats.
     
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  17. Hunter86004

    Hunter86004 Member

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  18. boom boom
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    boom boom Moderator Staff Member

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    Won't be out until the 2017 data is compiled, usually takes about two years, so expect 2017 data in 2019.
     
  19. Telekinesis

    Telekinesis Member

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    That's a very good point. A lot of people seem to just lump everything together, but it is important to define the scope of the argument.

    Are you interested in discussing people criminally killing other people? Then murders are what you need to look at. Just anyone being killed (intentionally) by a gun, then homocides.

    It is also important to determine the scope. A single statistic in time may show a trend, but it isn't really meaningful without understanding the rest of the material. If I'm looking at charge off rates for a bank and the rate increases by 5% in a single year, that looks very bad. However if you look at it in the scope of the whole portfolio grew 50% and return is up 75%, that 5% increase in charge offs doesn't look as bad anymore.

    This is something we as a group don't seem to do very well. We need to reframe the argument about "gun violence" to "violence". A murder with a gun isn't any more tragic than a murder with a knife or a baseball bat, but nobody ever talks about those. Someone who sincerely is interested in lowering the rate of violence would be willing to look at that data. Someone who just doesn't like guns won't care.

    To put this into terms of the data from the CDC, what is the overall rate of ALL homicides in those years, and did the overall rate also increase? And if so, at what rate? If the overall rate of homicides increased at a larger rate than the increase in firearm homicides, we can infer that firearm homicides were not the main driver of the increase in homicides.

    Maybe that's a little wordy, but I think we need to take a step back and understand the 100,000 foot view of what happened with all homicides before we go to the 10,000 foot view of what happened with firearm homicides. Then we can go to the 1,000 foot view of firearm homicide by MSA and hopefully be able to say "if you're not in these 5-10 cities, the rate of gun homicide goes down dramatically".
     
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  20. hso

    hso Moderator Staff Member

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    Very true, and point we need to make when we see conflated total death by a person vs. murder numbers.

    All homicides increased in the UCR data as did all murders and as did all means of murders. Suicides, Murder (H/F, Blunt, Blade, Long Gun and Handgun).

    The CDC data separates the Suicides, Unintentional, & LE from the Homicides and presents Homicides as killing of another other than LE in the Cause of Death doc.

    2016

    Unintentional 0.2

    Suicide 6.8

    Homicide 4.6

    Undetermined 0.1

    Legal Intervention / Operations of War 0.2


    2017

    Unintentional 0.2

    Suicide 6.9

    Homicide 4.6

    Undetermined 0.1

    Legal Intervention / Operations of War 0.2
     
    Last edited: Dec 14, 2018
  21. Carl N. Brown

    Carl N. Brown Member

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    I do remember seeing FBI stats about 5 years ago showing more people were murdered with blunt objects like bats and hammers than rifles.
    Check the UCR stats for any year. Homicide by weapon type used. More people are murdered by assailants using personal weapons (hand, fists, feet) than by assailants using rifles. You are more likely to be murdered by an unarmed assailant than by someone using a rifle but banning one model of rifle ( AR-15) is supposed to solve the murder problem.
     
  22. CoalTrain49

    CoalTrain49 Member

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    Actually, you need to go deeper. A homicide can be committed without a firearm. So it would be homicide with a firearm. Homicide rates don't really tell you very much until you know what the weapon was. It could have been a bat or a brick.

    It might also be helpful to note the homicide rate in Mexico compared to the US. Mexico has about 4 times the homicide rate of the US and they have some pretty onerous gun control. You can't just stroll down to your LGS and buy a gun. There are no gun stores in Mexico except one in Mexico city.
     
  23. Telekinesis

    Telekinesis Member

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    Well yeah, in that part of my post I thought the "by a firearm" was implied by being two words before the word homicide. I guess I could have used better phrasing on that bit.

    Read the rest of my post, it should be pretty clear that I understand that "homicide by [insert specific weapon]" is a subgroup of "all homicides".

    And I have to disagree that overall homicide rates aren't useful. There is a big difference between "overall homicide rates are up, and gun homicide rates are up" and "overall homicide rates are down, but gun homicide rates are up".

    Single data points make for great sound bites, but you need more information to draw good conclusions about what the data is telling you.
     
  24. bersaguy

    bersaguy Member

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    Always seemed to me that with the rise in concealed carry permits, ie. more states moving to a "will issue" policy, that there would be more fatal shootings. Now, prior to the increase in permits these events may have resulted not in a death by shooting, but assult, battery, rape, burglary ect. I would be interested to see how many of these homicide victims were killed during the commission of a crime, but I don't suppose the data is broken out like that.
     
  25. Browning

    Browning Member

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    I wonder how much of this is driven because of the 'Ferguson and Baltimore Effect'.

    If cops don't feel like they're supported then why put their lives on the line when they see drug dealers, gang members and known criminals operating?
     
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