Sad fact about real SHTF

[The Grand Inquisitor]

Every once in a while I get involved in some SHTF threads, and while I like thinking about the possiblities that are going to present themselves to those people who stand strong in favor classical, Enlightenment era, liberalism and Constitutional Americanism.

While it's interesting to think about the possiblities that will arise in such a situation, I think we all need to accept the fact that those of us who are serious about being on the side of liberty are going to be seriously out-gunned, out-manned, and beyond all else, potentially exterminated.
All of us who have been involved with the .gov in some way know that even with all of the idiocy, infighting, and backwards thinking that prevades the military establishment know that for whatever these people are, they are willing (many...but not all) to kill innocent civilians, bomb compounds, and throw billions of dollars of bombs at us in order to protect their oligarchy.

How many people would be serious enough to fight against the, say, for the sake of debate, invading Equadorian military who is hell-bent on controlling us.

Where do we go? Do we go into no-wheres-ville and try to engage at medium distances, or do we stay in our urban areas and try to wage a rebellion while mixing in with the crowd.


This is all food for thought. I'm not advocating anything, especially violence, now, or at any time in the near future. I'm just interested in these sorts of things in an academic manner.


I look forward to seeing what you guys think.

 

[RevolvingCylinder]

military establishment know that for whatever these people are, they are willing (many...but not all) to kill innocent civilians, bomb compounds, and throw billions of dollars of bombs at us in order to protect their oligarchy.

Since some of us(including myself) are in said military establishment, I guess we'll be killing you and bombing your house so you don't have much to worry about. After all, we're willing to execute an unlawful order and slaughter Americans.

 

[BIGDADDYLONGSTROKE]

Well if it ever did come to this, wouldnt you rather die trying to make a difference and trying to make a better future for generations to come or would you rather just give up and let them take control. I think if it ever did come to the point were we are battling our own govt then it is crucial to let them know there victory would not come free.

Further more I do not beleive the men and women in our military are murderers and I think it would be very hard to convince any Soldier, Marine, Sailor, Or Pilot to turn and kill innocent people especially in our own country. But that is just my 2 cents.

 

[The Grand Inquisitor]

I'm sorry to say this, but hundreds of thousands of good, honest, and generally good people who have worked for countless governments have done horrific things in the pursuit of what they have been told is "right".


Cambodia
Germany
etc, etc...

Millions of died because soldiers have been "doing their jobs".

 

[Hoppy590]

After all, we're willing to execute an unlawful order and slaughter Americans.

not that i agree with the idea that US soldiers would ever openly engages civilians. but "emergency" assistance, turns into martial law turns into "illegal weapons sweeps" and so on and so forth... dont forget the winner gets to decide what is and isnt a lawful order. and we all know how the government cares less and less about the rights of the people

 

[longeyes]

Trust American ingenuity.

 

[gunsmith]

A guy I know is Nat Guard E 8 infantry

He is for strict gun control and doesn't think you need anything more then a single shot .22.
He can not wait for orders to disarm "the gun nuts".
I know cops who feel the same way.

Any big org will have some jerks, I would like to think the Military
would obey orders at first but balk at wholesale slaughter of US civilians...

 

[Manedwolf]

While it's interesting to think about the possiblities that will arise in such a situation, I think we all need to accept the fact that those of us who are serious about being on the side of liberty are going to be seriously out-gunned, out-manned, and beyond all else, potentially exterminated.

People who say this simply don't have a mind for math, or a sense of scale.

Count all the houses in your subdivision.
Now multiply by a thousand. Now a thousand again. Now again. And again. And again. Keep going. You'll be in the millions soon.

Now get to over One Hundred Million...MILLION homes.

100,000,000

Can you picture that?

Now, would they bomb, destroy every single one of them? Of course not.

And of those, consider how many tens of millions...yes, tens of millions...could have a scoped deer rifle poking out a window to pick off one invading soldier or mercenary at a time. Crack, that's it, who did it? There's a thousand houses in range.

This is happening in IRAQ, which has far, far less structures, and the insurgents are doing a heck of a job with attrition of a far more superior force.

 

[Outlaws]

People who say this simply don't have a mind for math, or a sense of scale.

Count all the houses in your subdivision.
Now multiply by a thousand. Now a thousand again. Now again. And again. And again. Keep going. You'll be in the millions soon.

Now get to over One Hundred Million...MILLION homes.

100,000,000

Can you picture that?

Now, would they bomb, destroy every single one of them? Of course not.

And of those, consider how many tens of millions...yes, tens of millions...could have a scoped deer rifle poking out a window to pick off one invading soldier or mercenary at a time. Crack, that's it, who did it? There's a thousand houses in range.

This is happening in IRAQ, which has far, far less structures, and the insurgents are doing a heck of a job with attrition of a far more superior force.

To be honest, before the Iraq war, I was in the camp that figured if the SHTF with our own government, no one would/could do a damn thing about it. But then we went into Iraq.

I am not happy about what is going on over there, but it is an eye opener to say the least.

 

[telomerase]

This is happening in IRAQ

Not exactly... they don't have deer rifles. We didn't go below 15,000 feet in Serbia, because they DO have deer rifles.

Although as Heinlein pointed out, anyone who really wants to conquer will just nuke one city as an example and then your neighbors will come take away your deer rifle.

After all, we're willing to execute an unlawful order and slaughter Americans.

I'm sure you're not... but SOMEONE went into New Orleans and confiscated old ladies' revolvers. I'm afraid most soldiers in most armies will just do anything they're told... even blow up aspirin factories in the Sudan with cruise missiles, or invade Iraq "to look for WMDs" that they knew full well weren't there, etc. When the order comes to round up all the Mormons and take away their wives, I'm afraid that US soldiers will... oh yeah, that already happened.

 

[jeepmor]

The jews that resisted

Had a higher rate of survival than those that did not during WWII.

The resisting army, particularly insurgent and guerilla "resistance" factions always win. Don't think so, look at Iraq.

Think Vietnam and the U.S.; Afghanistan and the Russians, Iraq and U.S.

Insurgents win when they simply refuse to give up. You cannot "beat" a faction of people that refuses to "give up" no matter how much you enslave them and indoctrinate them to the current .gov point of view. They simply choose to resist and risk death instead of submitting to a governmental philosophy they don't embrace.

After all, we're willing to execute an unlawful order and slaughter Americans.

Okay, replace 'execute and slaughter' with 'confiscate law abiding citizens firearms' and the military is already guilty in the case of Katrina. Katrina is already a good example of the .gov's disregard for the constitution and bill of rights under the convenient guise of "bringing order" for the greater good? And the military proved a useful tool in doing so. Enough people "will" follow orders for fear of reprimand, demerit, or whatever disciplinary actions can simply stall an otherwise good career path in its tracks by simply saying,.... Uh, hmm, Sir, those orders are unconstitutional, count me out. Career suicide!!!! (Some still did it, and are to be considered some of the greatest heroes America possesses in my opinion. Our founding fathers would be proud, the current .gov administration would label them something else.)


Why didn't the military directly confront the looters (the real problem) instead of going to people holed up in their homes keeping a firearm close at hand (how is this a problem?) should the mob sweep through their neighborhood?
Easier prey, that's why.


As far as what it would take to resist, it is not much. It would start as a neighborhood of like minded folks deciding to put up a fight and conduct operations in very much, if not identically, the same way the Iraqi insurgents operate now. They are outgunned at every corner by our military, quite arguably outnumbered too. So they resort to sniper attacks and IED's and stay in the urban areas amongst the innocents to keep them from being just a large blast hole out in the boonies and eliminated.


On that note, there is one last thing to consider when discussing this particular topic. And that is that the American gun owning population of roughly 80 million citizens is a larger pool of people than the entire military complex in the world. You can bet your bottom dollar that if the military comes rolling through suburbia U.S. they will be fired upon. It happened in Katrina, which is again, why I think confiscation orders were given instead of actually engaging with the looters. Less casualties and something that can be measured and used to distract from the real truth of the matter.

jeepmor

 

[CrazyIrishman]

If you consider that history is written by the victor, then the victor will in all probability [strike]decide[/strike] dictate how you live, or survive. Take your pick.

 

[Nitrogen]

I disagree.

Back during WWII, before the death camps were "ready", Germany sent polish jews to live in specific sections of cities that were walled and fenced in. When it became clear to the Jews in these ghettos that they were being rounded up into death camps, they stole weapons and revolted.

A small band of poorly trained, poorly equiped Jews kept the Nazi's at bay for over three months, armed with mostly pistols and revolvers stolen from Nazi conscripts.

In the end, it took a little over 2,000 soldiers over three months to secure a 3 square mile area.

Imagine what would happen to ANY army trying to subdue 5,692,955 square miles, where at least 104 million people have a combined 235 million guns?

It'd be a long, drawn out protracted effort that would be difficult to be successful.

Never EVER underestimate people fighting for their lives.

 

[Joe Demko]

Imagine what would happen to ANY army trying to subdue 5,692,955 square miles, where at least 104 million people have a combined 235 million guns?

This, and similar sentiments expressed upthread by others, assumes that any signifigant fraction of those 104 million people would act in any kind of coordinated way against that army.

 

[mordechaianiliewicz]

I would contend that America would have a far different set of circumstances than Iraq. That being said, in the event of an SHTF involving a mix of American and foreign troops against American citizens, we would win. Bet on it. In the same way that the only way we can defeat the Iraqi insurgency would be to kill all the Iraqis, that would be the only way to defeat American resistance.

You see, we would fight urban and suburban battles. What's more, it may begin with our legal weapons now, but it would not simply stay "our weapons as now." Anytime a war happens involving a group of people who are determined to have their freedom, illegal arms traffickers come out of the woodworks to support them.

How many of us would trade silver, gold, money, tvs, etc. for RPGs, RPKs, etc. to fight the invaders?

Finally you have the reality of the number of troops necessary. It would require I mean require a combo of Chinese, and Indian UN troops numbering in the millions, using torture, mass killings, and police state tactics that make our mistreatment of the Iraqi prisoners look like we're giving them ice cream and conjugal visits.

And every time they do that, we would have someone who will feed us, let us hide, or who might even die so that we could survive another day. That being said, the whole "blood of tyrants and patriots " thing would be extreme. The casualties would # in the millions. Many of us would die. But, we would have our freedom, and whoever joined our illegal government to assist their anti-constitutional efforts would have hell to pay after that.

And, in the same way members of the Iraqi Army filter weapons to Iraqi insurgents, we would get weapons from military members loyal to our side.

Finally, consider that the resistance would be even more dificult to destroy than in Iraq. Alot of this would be family and small friend networks who had been friends for years before this happens. They would operate in small teams of between 3 or five up to thirty members, and they would uncover weapons caches with the objective of using on the invaders.

The invaders would be gone within three years. And the people responsible here would be meeting a long tree and a short rope.

 

[dm1333]

????????????

All of us who have been involved with the .gov in some way know that even with all of the idiocy, infighting, and backwards thinking that prevades the military establishment know that for whatever these people are, they are willing (many...but not all) to kill innocent civilians, bomb compounds, and throw billions of dollars of bombs at us in order to protect their oligarchy.


Having spent 22 years in 3 different services I find this offensive. Way to take The High Road.

 

[BIGDADDYLONGSTROKE]

dm1333

Having spent 22 years in the service you porbably have some extensive knowledge, please give us your opinion then. What do you think about SHTF.

 

[LightningJoe]

Oh, it won't happen like that. There won't be anybody to point your gun at. Little by little. Small increments. With plenty of media preparation. First, they make the inconceivable conceivable. Then, just a victimless alternative. Then something everybody needs to be exposed to. Then something you're not allowed to criticize. Then something mandatory. By the time the force gets applied, it's not an atrocity against American citizens, it's law enforcement.

 

[longeyes]

I'll bet on the average American versus civil service any day.

 

[Devonai]

All of us who have been involved with the .gov in some way know that even with all of the idiocy, infighting, and backwards thinking that prevades the military establishment know that for whatever these people are, they are willing (many...but not all) to kill innocent civilians, bomb compounds, and throw billions of dollars of bombs at us in order to protect their oligarchy.

You don't have to worry about C Co, 3/172 INF (MTN) of the New Hampshire Army National Guard. And yes, I'm sure.

(Gunsmith's E8) is for strict gun control and doesn't think you need anything more then a single shot .22. He can not wait for orders to disarm "the gun nuts".

Please don't tell me this sergeant is in an Infantry unit!

Enough people "will" follow orders for fear of reprimand, demerit, or whatever disciplinary actions can simply stall an otherwise good career path in its tracks by simply saying,.... Uh, hmm, Sir, those orders are unconstitutional, count me out. Career suicide!!!!

New Hampshire recently enacted a law to prevent "Katrina-style" confiscations of anything, firearms included, unless there is a demonstrated need for it:

http://www.gencourt.state.nh.us/rsa/html/I/4/4-46.htm

Being able to recognize an unlawful order is the duty of every soldier and one is required to refuse it.

 

[DoubleTapDrew]

The first time there is resistance, mass civilian and .mil/leo casualties and American bombs dropping on American cities, support for whatever administration gave the orders would disintegrate rather quickly no matter what your political affiliation is. At that point, if it continued, ALL Americans would realize why we have the 2nd amendment. Whoever gave the order would either withdraw it or sink back into the shadows for fear of assassination (which would probably happen anyway).
At least that's what I hope would happen.
Those who serve our country swore to defend the constitution of the United States of America, not whatever hothead of the week in Washinton decides America needs. Would they decimate and destroy our country (including their own familes) for their paycheck? I bet most would find that insulting.

 

[dm1333]

This is what I think about SHTF scenarios

Real "SHTF" scenarios are things like having a box of supplies and warm clothing in your car if you drive in snow country, including Route 42 in southern Oregon. Or having a pack with gore tex clothing, food, water, a good flashlight, etc. because you may have to turn out to search for a lost hiker in the middle of a dark, stormy, rainy night.

This thread in particular offends me because of this line;

"idiocy, infighting, and backwards thinking that prevades the military establishment know that for whatever these people are, they are willing (many...but not all) to kill innocent civilians, bomb compounds, and throw billions of dollars of bombs at us in order to protect their oligarchy."

I think The Grand Inquisitor should get involved in something real such as a county SAR team instead of being "academically" interested in internet scenarios. It might be educational. I'd also suggest he spend a little time getting to know some of the soldiers, sailors, Marines and airmen who he thinks are so willing to kill innocent civilians.

 

[meef]

After all, we're willing to execute an unlawful order and slaughter Americans.

Naw, not possible.

Kent State?

Waco?

 

[tanksoldier]

Ummm... was there a real question here, or are you just making a statement?

How many people would be serious enough to fight against the, say, for the sake of debate, invading Equadorian military who is hell-bent on controlling us.

All of us who have been involved with the .gov in some way know that even with all of the idiocy, infighting, and backwards thinking that prevades the military establishment know that for whatever these people are, they are willing (many...but not all) to kill innocent civilians, bomb compounds, and throw billions of dollars of bombs at us in order to protect their oligarchy.

I'm curious if you've ever served in the military, or as a civilian employed with the military, or are you just talking out your... hat?

I'm curious to know:

1. How, if the US actually was invaded, the military is supposed to repel the invasion without dropping bombs on US soil?

2. How, if the enemy is holding an civilian populated urban area, a military force is supposed to retake said area without at least the risk of civilian casualties?

3. How is this any different than any war that's ever been fought... except that usually in the past even less thought was given to collateral damage than today?

Would someone care to answer?


Also, remember that the defender is responsible for removing civilans from danger in potential combat areas per the relevant international agreements and the accepted law of land warfare. If the attacker is responsible for civilan deaths, that makes the "human shield" tactic viable.

or invade Iraq "to look for WMDs" that they knew full well weren't there

You're an idiot AND a sheep if you really believe this. Iraq used WMD more than once in the Iran-Iraq war, and at least once against it's own people. If Iraq didn't have WMD, how were they able to do this? Iraq USED WMD ergo Iraq HAD WMD... gas, bioweapons and some level of nuke research. They HAD it... the question is where did it go? They had months to get it out of the country, my guess is Syria.

 

[dpesec]

Kent State happened because the Guard thought they were being shot at. Self defense. now Waco is a different critter. It wasn't the military. Those are the groups I'd be more concerned about. I trust the military more than the alphabet soup agencies.