They're Starting to Converge

[Speedo66]

Seems like three of the more popular rifles are starting to converge in price. The SKS's still out there are starting to trend at over $400 commercially, and the Mosins are also rising in price with the rarer ones topping $400.

At the same time, AR's are dropping in price, with several complete entry level brands now being sold retail in the high $400 range by places like Brownell's, AIM Surplus, and others. Putting a build together in the low $400 range is not a big trick. Catch a great sale on the right pieces at Palmetto State, and you might even be able to break into the very high $300's.

Who would have thought those cheap surplus rifles and those expensive AR's would ever have converged in price?

 

[berettaprofessor]

It's my understanding that SKS's and Mosin's can't be imported right now by Executive Order....just one other thing that might change soon. Once the floodgates open again, they'll come down in price.

 

[Varminterror]

Kinda neglecting history here...

Go back a decade to a dozen years and you could build a basic mil-spec for as little or less than you can now, and the better models are considerably higher - specific example - street on a Bushmaster Varminter Stainless 12yrs ago was $750-850, it's $1150-1250 today for it or a similar model. At the time you could buy Norinco SKS's for around $200-250, Yugo made SKS's for $150-175, and many Mosins could be had for $75, or $50 if you didn't care how ugly they were. Swede Mausers at the time were running in the $150-250 ballpark for non-sporterized too. AR's are really just coming back to where they were, which is higher than they should be considering the market competition these days. The others are inflating over any value they really should have. I suppose as a point of reference, a Marlin 1894 could be bought 15yrs or so ago for $350-400 new off of the shelf, a guy doesn't find those for such little price today. So maybe the inflated price of AR's is about on track, but I can say Mosins and SKS's are not.

It's all based on supply and demand. AR's are high demand, but incredibly high supply. SKS's are high in demand also due to all of the internet rumors of unrest, but supply is a dry well. Same for Mosins. What doesn't make sense is the fact folks are paying so much to buy so little in the Mosin and in the SKS. Great rifles, sure, but not at $400.

 

[GarrettJ]

...a Marlin 1894 could be bought 15yrs or so ago for $350-400 new off of the shelf, a guy doesn't find those for such little price today.

In all of your examples you are forgetting to factor in inflation. That $400 you spent on a rifle in 2001 dollars is worth $545 today, 15 years later.

Supply & demand absolutely influences the price of things. But to say something sold for $XX in the past and is $YY today is comparing apples to oranges.

When you look at it that way, AR15s are selling for less now than they ever have. A $450 rifle today would have been like buying one in 1993 (prior to when the AW ban inflated prices) for $269. I seem to recall AR15s selling for more than double that price then.

 

[Varminterror]

I didn't forget inflation in the least, you just failed to read closely - I specifically stated:

So maybe the inflated price of AR's is about on track

AR's are really just coming back to where they were, which is higher than they should be considering the market competition these days. The others are inflating over any value they really should have.

If you read and understand the English language, that SHOULD read to you as: AR prices today aren't so far off from where they were 10-15yrs ago. This effectively suits the market, since greater market competition relatively depressed AR-prices since that time, counteracting appropriate rising costs due to inflation. Even considering AR's are below their inflated values - in my opinion they're still over priced relative to their market competition.

I might challenge a bit the 1993 pricing you're talking about - while it wasn't as far back as 1993, I started building AR's in the late 1990's, and I remember building them, if I bought in large enough volumes, I could just sneak them under $300 each, but typically completing them in the $300-350 range, and that was even before I grabbed greater discounts when I got my FFL. Correcting 1993 dollars to 1998, $269 is $303 - so I wouldn't have been too far off at that time from the mark you state as impossible. The ban threw everything for a loop, as did its sunset, and of course, panic buying phases and different state level AWB laws (good and bad) have pushed things around, but overall, I think the market on AR's has been relatively marginalized for a long time - much more so than these other models I referenced. I do recall in 2006 "ish" time frame after the ban buying a Bushmaster M4 Hbar for $750 and being glad to find one on the shelf - an equivalent rifle today is barely over half of that price...

However - tell me how in sam he11 you can reason away with inflation justification that a $75 Mosin (a 2000-2005 era price) exceeded it's appropriately inflated cost of $105 by 3-4x? I know in 2007-8, they could be bought for $125 locally, which inflates to $145 today - again, how do you explain them running 2-3x that price today BY INFLATION? Or a $250 2005 SKS is running $450 today, instead of it's $309 inflated value? I bought a Marlin 1894 in 2002 for $380 - inflation corrected to $509 in 2016, list price on the rack for the same rifle today near me is $655...

Inflation is not the driving force in these increased prices. Market supply and demand affects ARE what's setting the prices.