UC Davis Study Shows Gun-Related Death Common for Handgun Purchasers

[Drizzt]

UC Davis Study Shows Gun-Related Death Common for Handgun Purchasers

3/24/2003

Press Release
Violence Prevention Research Program
University of California, Davis
2315 Stockton Boulevard
Sacramento, CA 95817
web.ucdmc.ucdavis.edu/vprp

Contact:
Garen Wintemute
Phone: 916-734-3083

Sacramento, CA - Researchers at the UC Davis Violence Prevention Research Program have found that, among people who die within three years of purchasing handguns, more than one-fifth of all deaths result from gunshot wounds.

Their study, based on records for 213,466 Californians ages 21 and older who died in 1998, is published in the March issue of Injury Prevention. The study compares rates of handgun purchase among persons dying from violence and persons dying from natural causes.

In the study were 1,162 persons who died in 1998 and who had purchased handguns during 1996-1998. Almost 22 percent of deaths in that group were gun-related. Gun suicide alone was the leading cause of death among women who purchased handguns, accounting for 37.2 percent of all deaths, and was the third leading cause of death among men who purchased handguns (17.5 percent of deaths).

By comparison, gun suicide made up just 0.2 percent of deaths among women, and 1.1 percent of deaths among men, who did not purchase handguns.

Handgun purchasers accounted for just 0.5 percent of the study population but 14.2 percent of gun suicides, 2.4 percent of gun homicides, and 16.7 percent of unintentional gun deaths.

In comparison to people who died of natural causes, those who died from intentional violence were nearly six times as likely to have purchased a handgun, the study found. Women who died from gun suicide were more than 100 times as likely to have purchased a handgun as were women who died from natural causes. The results included adjustments for differences in age, sex, race-ethnicity, education, and marital status.

"The link between violent death and handgun purchase was very strong," said Garen J. Wintemute, professor of epidemiology and preventive medicine and director of the UC Davis Violence Prevention Research Program at UC Davis (http://web.ucdmc.ucdavis.edu/vprp/index.html). "Recent handgun purchasers make up a sizeable proportion of people who die from violence. Most people buy handguns for protection, but the results suggest that they are increasing, not decreasing, their odds of a violent death."

http://www.jointogether.org/gv/news/alerts/reader/0,2061,562330,00.html


I guess we'd all better get rid of our guns, then. Or, at least, have someone else purchase it, then give it to you as a gift....

 

[atek3]

Great "study". Keep 'em coming, oh magnificent oracles of enlightenment.

 

[geekWithA.45]

Having been a statitician in a previous life, I suppose it's my duty to read the study, and find all the flaws, and expose them here,


but I'm not going to. I don't have time for that sort of thing, and I'll leave to to someone whose credentials are more impressive than mine. (It's been 10 years since I've done the statistician thing)

Without breaking a sweat, and using just the info in the article, all I'm gonna say is that if you select for your study a group of dead people who have recently purchased handguns,

In the study were 1,162 persons who died in 1998 and who had purchased handguns during 1996-1998.

you are going to find that dead people have recently purchased handguns.


Duh.

Also, these studies generally need to mix in suicide to make their numbers work. IMO, suicide is a personal prerogative, that should not be undertaken for light or transient reasons.

There was a great link on guncite.com, which I can't find, that discusses the "medicalization" of the gun control debate. Dang. Wish I could find it.

 

[Old Fuff]

We should all understand that while all guns are despicable, handguns are the worst of all. Therefore it would be reasonable to conclude that the majority of gun related suicides, homicides and accidental deaths would be committed with handguns, rather then supposedly less evil rifles and shotguns. Lets look at this study’s results.

“Handgun purchasers accounted for just 0.5 percent of the study population but 14.2 percent of gun suicides, 2.4 percent of gun homicides, and 16.7 percent of unintentional gun deaths.â€

Gun Suicides Handguns = 14.2%
Gun Homicides Handguns = 2.4%
Gun Unintentional Deaths Handguns = 16.7%

I presume all the rest were committed by some other kind of firearm, although I consider this report to be pure bull if the author is tying to trash handguns.

 

[Standing Wolf]

"Recent handgun purchasers make up a sizeable proportion of people who die from violence. Most people buy handguns for protection, but the results suggest that they are increasing, not decreasing, their odds of a violent death."

1. If you select your sample to demonstrate your point, you'll demonstrate your point.

2. Coincidence is not causality.

 

[Pendragon]

dangit "Standing Thunder Stealer!"

Correlation<>Causation

 

[MeekandMild]

That's crap. These studies are like trying to figure out which tanker truck full of milk is blacker, the one with one drop of ink in it or the one with two drops.


On the other hand, there are liberal suicide advocacy groups...

 

[cuchulainn]

The headline of the press release is grossly misleading (even if we accept their method as valid). A high number of gun deaths among gun purchasers is not the same thing as a high number of gun deaths among people who die within X time after buying guns.

Logical flaw: The characteristics of a subset cannot automatically be transferred to the whole. Bricks are about 8 X 2 X 1 inches. Brick walls are made of bricks. Therefore, brick walls are 8 X 2 X 1 inches.

In the study were 1,162 persons who died in 1998 and who had purchased handguns during 1996-1998. Almost 22 percent of deaths in that group were gun-related.

22% of 1,162 is 256 -- This 256 also is the number of deaths among all Calif gun buyers 1996-1997.

According to the California Attorney General just last week (March 18), "With the exception of 1999, gun purchases in California have averaged about 357,000 a year for the past seven years" ( http://www.caag.state.ca.us/newsalerts/2003/03-032.htm)

That makes about 1,071,000 gun buyers 1996-1998 (357,000 X 3). Thus the 256 gun deaths among all gun buyers is 0.02% (two one-hundreths of one percent).

Subset's gun death is high -- about 22% or about 1 in 5.
Whole's gun death is low -- about 0.02% or about 1 in 5,000 (2 in 10,000).

 

[Coronach]

Lets see here...we have two possibilities:

1. Purchasing a firearm actually makes it more likely that you will die a violent death. This would likely apply to instances where the purchaser/owner was an idjit and shoots himself fatally with his own gun, lives in a household where domestic violence is common, or commits suicide.

Note what is not told to you by this statistic: if you are not an idjit, don't have an abusive family member, and are not suicidal, this "increased risk of death" will likely not apply to you. Essentially, this is just Kellerman reiterated.

2. Purchasing a firearm doesn't, in and of itself, make you more likely to be killed, but is often an indicator of living in a situation where there is a risk of violent death is present and the purchase is a reaction to it. OK, fine. This is quite possibly what the authors are getting at. But, will eschewing the purchase of the handgun, changing nothing else in that situation, increase the chances of survival? I doubt that anyone would say that it will.

Naturally, there is a criminal population that is driving these statistics. Ooooo...violent death is associated with handgun purchase? mmmm-kay. How about this- violent death is associated with being a crack dealer? Anyone want to wager which is going to be the stronger effect?

Want to make sure you don't get killed by a handgun? Don't fret over purchasing one (unless you're suicidal or live in a violent household), but do make sure that you're not hanging out with gangbangers.

Mike

 

[ahadams]

ah and they also overlooked the obvious: all of those people died where? In California! Obviously demonstrating that life in California is invariably lethal!

 

[geekWithA.45]

My friend tells me of a Judge Dredd comic:

In a parallel universe, the judges did a study to determine the commonalities of criminals. They determined that what all criminals have in common is that they are alive, and concluded that life causes crime.

They therefore went and killed everyone, and built a statue to "The last criminal", who was an ordinary man cringing in fear.

 

[hansolo]

Very Un-Enlightening!

I ain't no Rocket Scientist, but hear me out on this: if this genius has hard data prove that BUYING a HANDGUN makes me more prone to die of gun related means, then if I BUY RIFLES/SHOTGUNS I will be less prone to die of bullet wounds?
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH! What if I don't buy the evil handgun, but, rather, STEAL it? How does this influence the "data"?

This "study" has more holes in it than Bonnie and Clyde's corpses.

 

[10-Ring]

You expected any diff't from a CA University?

 

[TallPine]

In a related story, Ralph Nader announced today that 22% of the people killed in auto accidents had purchased a car in the past three years.

 

[hops]

And life tells us that death is inevitable in any event. Boohooo.

 

[DeltaElite]

There are three types of lies.
Lies, damn lies and Statistics.

 

[45R]

They are Lies alll Lies. I'd like to read the full report.

 

[Hkmp5sd]

The obvious answer is to play it safe and buy at least one handgun every year.

 

[Drjones]

Man, you guys are no fun with your statistics and logic and common sense and all that other stuff.

Sheesh, I bet you don't believe in the toof fairy anymore neither, huh?




Seriously, its threads like these that make me love this place so much more!!!!

 

[earl_simmons]

I don't see anything in the brief description of the study indicating flawed methodology. It sounds like a simple case-control study that looked at deaths of 213,466 Californians. Some died of natural causes; some died violent deaths. Those who died of natural causes were compared to those who didn't. Whether or not the researchers adequately controlled for all potential confounders and if the study population is representative of the current US population is not clear, however. And even if a statistically significant association is seen between gun purchases and violent deaths, the study cannot show causation.

 

[Hkmp5sd]

The big question is where they came up with their data. Gun related deaths are going to be investigated by the police and that would determine (maybe) when the person bought the weapon. With all other deaths, there is nothing in the reports that would list whether or not the person had purchased a firearm within the previous 3 years unless it played some factor in the death. They do not go and inventory all of your possessions and then check who/what/when/where you acquired any firearms they may have found.

 

[Henry Bowman]

Could have read:

Sacramento, CA - Researchers at the UC Davis Disease Prevention Research Program have found that, among people who die within three years of being hospitalized, more than one-fifth of all deaths result from disease.

Their study, based on records for 213,466 Californians ages 21 and older who died in 1998, is published in the March issue of Disease Prevention. The study compares rates of hospitalization among persons dying from disease and persons dying from other causes.

In the study were 1,162 persons who died in 1998 and who had been hospitalized during 1996-1998. Almost 22 percent of deaths in that group were disease-related. Infection alone was the leading cause of death among women who had been hospitalized, accounting for 37.2 percent of all deaths, and was the third leading cause of death among men who had been hospitalized (17.5 percent of deaths).

By comparison, infection made up just 0.2 percent of deaths among women, and 1.1 percent of deaths among men, who had not been hospitalized.

Hospital patients accounted for just 0.5 percent of the study population but 14.2 percent of infections, 2.4 percent of injuries, and 16.7 percent of decapitations.

In comparison to people who died of other causes, those who died from disease were nearly six times as likely to have been hospitalized, the study found. Women who died from infection were more than 100 times as likely to have been hospitalized as were women who died from other causes. The results included adjustments for differences in age, sex, race-ethnicity, education, and marital status.

"The link between disease and hospitalization was very strong," said Garen J. Wintemute, professor of epidemiology and preventive medicine and director of the UC Davis Desease Prevention Research Program at UC Davis (http://web.ucdmc.ucdavis.edu/vprp/bunch_of_crap.html). "Recent hospital patients make up a sizeable proportion of people who die from diseases. Most people hospitalized in order to become healthier, but the results suggest that it is increasing, not decreasing, their odds of a death from disease."

 

[MeekandMild]

Like I said. Which tanker truck is full of blacker milk?

 

[rock jock]

Correlation<>Causation

Yeah, such a simple concept. You would think it would eventually filter down to the proles at UC Davis.

 

[SIC TRANSIT GLORIA MUNDI]

OK, so about 1 out of 200 of the deaths were gun-related (1,162 out of 213,466)or about .5%. What's the big deal?