US House election stats

[RealGun]

I am basing my list of winners on the Washington Post's report of new House members compared to GOA's candidate ratings published in the newsletter. I can then see by default, which incumbents won or lost.

2 incumbents were upset and both were A-rated Republicans. One was Burns of Georgia, beaten by an unrated (no response) Democrat, Barrow. The other was Crane of Illinois, beaten out by an F-rated Democrat, Bean.

The only incumbent race I know much about is that Marilyn Musgrave of 2nd Amendment Caucus fame squeaked out a narrow win in her Colorado district.

All other new House members won open seats.

The list of new House members and their GOA ratings are as follows:

Lungren (R-CA) - F
Costa (D-CA) - F
Salazar (D-CO) - NR
Mack (R-FL) - NR
Schultz (D-FL) - F
McKinney (D-GA) - F
Price (R-GA) - A
Westmoreland (R-GA) - A
Barrow (D-GA) - F (unseated Burns (R-GA) - A)
Lipinski (D-IL) - NR
Bean (D-IL) - F (unseated Crane (R-IL) - A)
Davis (R-KY) - A
Jindal (R-LA) - NR
Schwarz (R-MI) - B
Carnahan (D-MO) - F
Cleaver (D-MO) - NR
Fortenberry (R-NE) - NR
Kuhl (R-NY) - A (that's a good one. Half of the NY delegation is F-)
Foxx (R-NC) - A
McHenry (R-NC) - A
Boren (D-OK) - NR
Fitzpatrick (R-PA) - NR
Schwartz (D-PA) - F
Dent (R-PA) - C
Inglis (R-SC) - B
Gohmert (R-TX) - A
Poe (R-TX) - A
Green (D-TX) - NR
McCaul (R-TX) - A
Conaway (R-TX) - B
Marchant (R-TX) - A-
Cuellar (D-TX) - NR
Drake (R-VA) - B-
McMorris (R-WA) - A
Moore (D-WI) - F

Remaining incumbent ratings are available on the GOA website, gunowners.org., noting that the seats will have been vacated equivalent to the new memberships listed above. I can provide district numbers to match, if requested.

I did count 14 Democrat incumbents rated B or better. There are some Republican incumbents who need work.

 

[Bartholomew Roberts]

Thanks for the list! I know firsthand what a pain it is to compile that info, especially for the House.

 

[RealGun]

Inglis of SC is returning to the House after previously serving three terms through 1998.

 

[RealGun]

Louisiana has two more House seats, pending runoff elections in December.

Parrish 03

Melancon (D-LA) - A
Tauzin III (R-LA) - NR

Parrish 07

Boustany (R-LA) - NR
Mount (D-LA) - NR


Parrsih 03 is not an error. The Democrat has the better GOA rating.

 

[Frank5]

Dent R PA.....
I live in his district. He was endorsed by the NRA. I understand he is very pro gun. ??? Am I wrong??

 

[tulsamal]

2 incumbents were upset and both were A-rated Republicans.

All other new House members won open seats.

Something about those two statements can't be right! It was either 3 or 4 Democratic incumbents that were defeated in Texas. It happened because of redistricting. Maybe the facts got covered up because they were defeated by _incumbents._ But they weren't open seats!

Gregg

 

[RealGun]

Something about those two statements can't be right!

You are correct. I missed counting the two upsets in Texas, Gohmert (R) - A over Sandlin (D) - C and Poe (R) - A over Lampson (D) - C. Texas and potentially gun owners had an outstanding day.

There were 4 incumbent upsets in the House, but within those upsets there was a break even in both Republican count and GOA top ratings.

 

[RealGun]

Dent R PA.....
I live in his district. He was endorsed by the NRA. I understand he is very pro gun. ??? Am I wrong??

That rating of C is listed accurately. As a new candidate, the rating would have been based upon responses to the GOA survey.

 

[Bartholomew Roberts]

I also didn't see Sessions (NRA - A) over Frost (NRA - F) from Texas in the list. Technically Sessions was the incumbent so it wasn't a change; but the redistricting made Frost compete in Sessions district and gave his old district to a pro-gun Republican, so we got rid of Frost and kept Sessions.

 

[RealGun]

Yep. In scanning the list, I had made no provision for two capitalized names (incumbents) going head to head in the same district. It seems that Texas in general didn't get a close enough look. Together we'll get it right, and I will repost an edited summary.