I saw in the news that North Korea is saying that it and South Korea are at war now. No real shooting or even troops movements have been seen as of yet, but the situation got me thinking. Since South Korea is in a treaty with the US, our involvement in a war seems guaranteed. If a conflict were to break out between North and South Korea in the next couple of weeks, what effect would this have on ammunition prices here in the US? I know that the US military has certain stockpiles of ammunition but does anyone know how much ammunition gets used during a short conflict lasting only a few months? Would this have an impact on supplies and prices of ammunition?
War in Korea and US Ammo Prices
- Thread starter Killian
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CmdrSlander
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A full dress war we lead to virtually no ammunition available stateside, most arms production would be dedicated to the war effort as well.
AlexanderA
Member
Moot point. North Korea is indulging in some saber-rattling, but a new full-scale war on the Korean Peninsula would be absurd. (North Korea would be utterly destroyed in short order, for one thing.)
SabbathWolf
member
I already served two tours in Korea. North Korea is just spouting off.
Technically they are saying absolutely nothing.
North & South Korea are already at war, and have been since the 50's.
No armistice was ever signed at the end of the Korean conflict.
Just a cease-fire.
Hell, I re-enlisted one time on the bridge that connects North & South Korea, under guard, on the DMZ. The whole time, North Koreans were screaming and yelling at us, "Go home GI." "USA sucks." "Go home GI."
lol....
It was a trip....
Technically they are saying absolutely nothing.
North & South Korea are already at war, and have been since the 50's.
No armistice was ever signed at the end of the Korean conflict.
Just a cease-fire.
Hell, I re-enlisted one time on the bridge that connects North & South Korea, under guard, on the DMZ. The whole time, North Koreans were screaming and yelling at us, "Go home GI." "USA sucks." "Go home GI."
lol....
It was a trip....
Its Spring time in the Koreas. The two are in a powderkeg for a very very long time. Each side has prepared ample guns and ammo for this awaited moment. The problem is , we have 30 000 plus troops over in the South. They will be hit when it comes to the worst scenario. It will be dejavu 1950s again. I never thought it will happen again . We dont have the full bravado of Gen MacArthur this time around but we got plenty of nukes to bear.
If ever war breaks out, it will be more of rockets, missiles , artillery exchanges and airstrikes . I dont see them coming over the DMZ like in the past. They know they will be wiped out in no time.
If ever war breaks out, it will be more of rockets, missiles , artillery exchanges and airstrikes . I dont see them coming over the DMZ like in the past. They know they will be wiped out in no time.
SabbathWolf
member
This is true. The land mass of South Korea is so small, it leaves nowhere to hide.
North Korea can pretty much hit anything they want to in the South with their artillery.
Granted, retaliation would be swift and deadly, but not without some pretty severe casualties on both sides.
American intel says the city of Seoul will be wiped out in less than 72 hrs from the 1400 or more big artillery and rockets aimed at them from across the DMZ. They should have moved their capital farther down a long time ago . This is a disaster waiting to happen.
It was said of the late Kim the granddad that he wanted to see Seoul in flames in a 2nd Korean War. The son who passed away passed on that dream to the young Kim.
It was said of the late Kim the granddad that he wanted to see Seoul in flames in a 2nd Korean War. The son who passed away passed on that dream to the young Kim.
bainter1212
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SabbathWolf is right. South and North Korea have been technically at war since 1953. No peace treaty was ever signed; only a cease fire.
My grandpa served in the Korean War, 24th Inf Div. By the time he got there most of the people he was killing were Chinese. North Koreans were pushed back to the Yalu river at the Chinese border in 1951. At this point, millions of Chinese "volunteer" (really government) soldiers entered the fight and pushed us back. After this it was basically an extremely bloody back and forth fight for various hilltops and landmarks.
My grandpa still gets choked up with anger when he talks about the cease fire agreement; during the last desperate push, many men, including some of his closest buddies, were killed. They gained ten miles only to agree to give it back during the negotiations.
Many of you might ask "why don't we just bomb them into dust?". The real reason is simple. The North has LOTS and LOTS of large artillery pieces well within range of Seoul. The general fear is that Seoul (a city of 11 million people) could be leveled in a very short time. Also, we don't want to fight China, the country which generally backs North Korea. The only way in which we would be able to engage in a war would be if North Korea instigates by aggressively attacking the South, enough so that the Chinese would themselves consider them to have "crossed the line". What this line is, nobody knows. NOBODY wants to fight China. MacArthur got dismissed just for suggesting nuking them WHEN WE WERE ALREADY FIGHTING them. If we can get assurance that China will no longer back North Korea, it's game on baby.
That being said, I wouldn't worry too much about ammo prices. Any war with N Korea (without Chinese intervention) would be largely an air war. We could destroy that country in short order. Problem is, the north can do a LOT of damage in a short time.
My grandpa served in the Korean War, 24th Inf Div. By the time he got there most of the people he was killing were Chinese. North Koreans were pushed back to the Yalu river at the Chinese border in 1951. At this point, millions of Chinese "volunteer" (really government) soldiers entered the fight and pushed us back. After this it was basically an extremely bloody back and forth fight for various hilltops and landmarks.
My grandpa still gets choked up with anger when he talks about the cease fire agreement; during the last desperate push, many men, including some of his closest buddies, were killed. They gained ten miles only to agree to give it back during the negotiations.
Many of you might ask "why don't we just bomb them into dust?". The real reason is simple. The North has LOTS and LOTS of large artillery pieces well within range of Seoul. The general fear is that Seoul (a city of 11 million people) could be leveled in a very short time. Also, we don't want to fight China, the country which generally backs North Korea. The only way in which we would be able to engage in a war would be if North Korea instigates by aggressively attacking the South, enough so that the Chinese would themselves consider them to have "crossed the line". What this line is, nobody knows. NOBODY wants to fight China. MacArthur got dismissed just for suggesting nuking them WHEN WE WERE ALREADY FIGHTING them. If we can get assurance that China will no longer back North Korea, it's game on baby.
That being said, I wouldn't worry too much about ammo prices. Any war with N Korea (without Chinese intervention) would be largely an air war. We could destroy that country in short order. Problem is, the north can do a LOT of damage in a short time.
mljdeckard
Member
Um......NO. You guys are acting as if there is no defensive infrastructure in place at all. There are 30,000 U.S. troops, but there are 506,000 South Korean Troops. They South Korean Army can MORE THAN HANDLE the North Korean army. The main thing we would help with is air superiority, we would have their entire air force pinned down and immobilized with two carrier groups. The one who would get hurt here is North Korea.
The do this with every change in leadership. We have been in a state of war with them since 1952. Nothing has changed here folks, they want food and attention.
The do this with every change in leadership. We have been in a state of war with them since 1952. Nothing has changed here folks, they want food and attention.
If we can make a deal with the CHinese not to enter the war but they can take spoils of North Korea after we bombed them to the stone age, then fine. China wants to retake North Korea as part of the Chinese Mainland . They can administer it once the young Kim is finished. At least we know China .
Korean Peninsula was once part of China back in the 13 th century Yuan Dynasty . But if we attacked across the DMZ, then the Chinese will see this as stepping into their doorstep. They will again fight alongside the NKs. One of the main reason s why the CHicoms fought us in 1950 was bec Macarthur pushed too far into North Korea and closed into the Yalu River Crossing with CHina. The Chinese warned us not to pushed across the DMZ but Macarthur didnt gives a xxx a xxx what they said. Once our USMC divisions reached the Chosin Reservoir , the Chicoms descended on all sides and thus a new phase of the war unfolded.
Korean Peninsula was once part of China back in the 13 th century Yuan Dynasty . But if we attacked across the DMZ, then the Chinese will see this as stepping into their doorstep. They will again fight alongside the NKs. One of the main reason s why the CHicoms fought us in 1950 was bec Macarthur pushed too far into North Korea and closed into the Yalu River Crossing with CHina. The Chinese warned us not to pushed across the DMZ but Macarthur didnt gives a xxx a xxx what they said. Once our USMC divisions reached the Chosin Reservoir , the Chicoms descended on all sides and thus a new phase of the war unfolded.
Peter Kuykendall
Member
I wonder if it would be a repeat of Viet Nam. We had a negotiated peace, the communists agreed to stay back in the north (not that they actually did), and we pulled out August 15, 1973. We promised to defend the south if the north invaded again per treaty. Then, almost 2 years later, North Viet Nam invades Saigon, and we welch on our defense agreement. "Sorry guys, we were just kidding, good luck!" Given the current occupants of D.C., that seems at least as likely as us mixing it up in yet another Asian war.
Same goes for Taiwan even more so, as we wouldn't want to tick off the Chinese by actually honoring a treaty by defending our allies, especially a democracy being invaded by a communist country. If we got into a real war with China our shelves would be bare in a couple of weeks.
Same goes for Taiwan even more so, as we wouldn't want to tick off the Chinese by actually honoring a treaty by defending our allies, especially a democracy being invaded by a communist country. If we got into a real war with China our shelves would be bare in a couple of weeks.
Tinpig
Member
Will a war between N. and S. Korea, necessarily involving tens of thousands American troops in harm's way and the potential to go worldwide and nuclear through proxies, affect ammo supplies and prices?
Welcome to our little gun world.
Tinpig
Welcome to our little gun world.
Tinpig
bainter1212
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Taiwan, S korea and Japan are countries that I believe we WOULD honor our treaties with. Everyone knows that whoever projects power in the Asian hemisphere gets a chance to stay on top of the global economic power game. If we lose our bases in Asia, we LOSE the game to China. Not just a setback, a LOSS. Remember how blasted hard it was for us to gain what territory we were able to in WWII?? Would not be wise to give all that up.
I also believe that we need to make some sort of quiet, backdoor deal with Beijing. We bomb the living heck out of N Korea in response to (an inevitable) provocation, and the Chinese get to set up their own handpicked puppet government in the North. A mandatory clause that the new North government would allow free trade with Western countries would have to be in there somewhere. The North is a market ripe for exploitation by the purveyors of consumerism.
The Chinese have never loved the Kims. I think they are real close to doing something about this obnoxious behavior.
I also believe that we need to make some sort of quiet, backdoor deal with Beijing. We bomb the living heck out of N Korea in response to (an inevitable) provocation, and the Chinese get to set up their own handpicked puppet government in the North. A mandatory clause that the new North government would allow free trade with Western countries would have to be in there somewhere. The North is a market ripe for exploitation by the purveyors of consumerism.
The Chinese have never loved the Kims. I think they are real close to doing something about this obnoxious behavior.
North Korea is saber rattling, for sure. I'm reminded of World War 1 though when Austro Hungary was basically saber rattling against Serbia. Then the Russians mobilized because they were basically saber rattling. Then the Germans mobilized to face Russia. Then a month later we had World War 1. Which everyone had been preparing for but which no one really wanted to fight. Escalation sometimes happens in spite of best intentions.
I'm not quite so sure I believe the "utterly destroyed" part unless we were to go massively nuclear. We would probably have air superiority, but maybe not if North Korea can damage runways in the South consistently and keep our aircraft carriers backed off to less efficient ranges. Iraq 2 showed us that air campaign alone won't defeat an enemy.
North Korea probably wouldn't invade unless it had nuked a major part of the South Korean/US military, or popped a nuclear weapon off above South Korea and destroyed military electronics with EMP to "level the playing field". But I don't think South Korea and the US would be keen on invading North Korea either. It's a small country, but also densely packed. You either drive up the right side of coast line, or the left side coast line. The mountains will hinder most other movement thru the center. Other than walking of course. Also we don't know what China would do if we invade North Korea. They don't want a US and South Korean base on the Yalu River. We, I know, don't want to go toe to toe with China. If they say they can hit a US city with a nuclear weapon, they aren't blowing smoke.
I think it would mostly stay conventional as a war, unless N.K. get desperate and decides to launch one after getting pounded for a while. Because it would be conventional though I think that it could last for a few months at a minimum. Iraq 1 took over six months to get ready but was over quickly. Iraq 2 took less time to get ready but took 3 weeks to fight. I would think North Korea would take at least a couple of months if not longer to fight. More if China supplies it with material to keep the war going. Frankly, if I were Chinese, I'd fight to my last North Korean to defend China's border.
During this whole time though I think we'd be shipping US ammo production to South Korea, Japan, and US forces.
OP simply posted a hypothetical of interest; nobody said anything about personal ammo needs trumping major geopolitical issues.
Lighten up, Francis.
Interesting. Why do you think this would be the case with a Korean conflict, yet wasn't when Iraq and Afghanistan were concurrently hot?
digsigs226
Member
Well... one thing would be certain, we wouldn't see any PMC ammo stateside 
Peter Kuykendall
Member
Nowadays our foreign policy seems to involve attacking our allies (Libya, Pakistan), and back away from Democratic allies (fuzzy commitment to Taiwan, massive cooling of talk towards Israel). In other words, I don't have any faith that we would defend South Korea since it won't poll well. I can't make heads or tails of our foreign policy, so from my point of view it's always a random event.
Here's what happens when you don't honor your defense agreements and don't have a coherent plan for the resulting invasion. US Embassy, Saigon, 1975. The North Vietnamese Army (NVA) has re-invaded the South, and all of the spies that worked for us are desparately trying to get out before the NVA gets them. One of the blackest days in American history IMO, brought on by a failure to honor our defense commitment coupled with a ruthless agressor in the North. Sounds like deja-vu all over again. I dearly hope it doesn't come to that again, as I don't trust the US government to be any more honorable today than they were in 1975.
Here's what happens when you don't honor your defense agreements and don't have a coherent plan for the resulting invasion. US Embassy, Saigon, 1975. The North Vietnamese Army (NVA) has re-invaded the South, and all of the spies that worked for us are desparately trying to get out before the NVA gets them. One of the blackest days in American history IMO, brought on by a failure to honor our defense commitment coupled with a ruthless agressor in the North. Sounds like deja-vu all over again. I dearly hope it doesn't come to that again, as I don't trust the US government to be any more honorable today than they were in 1975.
Can you imagine the drop off in FTFs?Well... one thing would be certain, we wouldn't see any PMC ammo stateside
CmdrSlander
Member
The Koreans have far more men under arms than either of those countries and have anti-air capabilities that would be problematic to a "shock and awe" rapid dominance strategy. Their people are also entirely indoctrinated and have been taught, specifically, to loathe the American GI, since the 1950s. A ground war there would be long and bloody (think hypothetical invasion of mainland Japan during WWII), far outshining our middle east conflicts.
Interesting assessment. Thank you.
CmdrSlander
Member
You're welcome. Additionally, we had a Cold War vintage stockpile of small arms ammo to burn going into Iraq and Afghanistan, now those wars have reduced the stockpile substantially.
Salmoneye
Member
Anyone that thinks this idiot (Kim Jong Un) is capable of more than destroying his own 'country' needs to rethink their position...
http://www.news.com.au/technology/f...ader-kim-jong-un/story-e6frfro0-1226606691841
http://kimjongunlookingatthings.tumblr.com/
BTW
Does anyone know if China resumed oil deliveries to NK since they shut them off in January?
http://www.news.com.au/technology/f...ader-kim-jong-un/story-e6frfro0-1226606691841
http://kimjongunlookingatthings.tumblr.com/
BTW
Does anyone know if China resumed oil deliveries to NK since they shut them off in January?
Ignition Override
Member
The PRC ('red' Chinese) govt. seems unable to control North Korea, but the Chinese don't want hundreds of thousands of refugees flooding their borders, many of whom are always starving, or in dread fear of being sent to the terrible concentration camps.
Even suspects' grandchildren who are Born in those camps are never released from a very hungry, harsh existence.
P. Kuykendall:
You might know that the helicopter on the US Embassy roof in Saigon was an Air America ship and crew, as with many of the DC-6 (etc) transports. Crewmembers had to push/punch herds of panicked people at Tan Son Nhut away from the ladders.
Even suspects' grandchildren who are Born in those camps are never released from a very hungry, harsh existence.
P. Kuykendall:
You might know that the helicopter on the US Embassy roof in Saigon was an Air America ship and crew, as with many of the DC-6 (etc) transports. Crewmembers had to push/punch herds of panicked people at Tan Son Nhut away from the ladders.
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