National Review
March 25, 2004
L’Année de la Chine
By John J. Tkacik Jr.
Will Europe arm Red China?
http://www.nationalreview.com/comment/tkacik200403250900.asp
A bitter dispute over election results is bad enough. But Taiwan's
troubles — and ours — may be just beginning.
The reason: Our European allies might well approve plans to sell China
advanced weaponry at the March 25-26 European Union summit that begins
today.
The repercussions would be disastrous. Not only could China use new weapons
from Europe against Taiwan, but Chinese generals have said they're prepared
to confront U.S. forces in the Pacific if America tries to help Taiwan.
Why would NATO allies put the United States in this position? Money is one
reason. But European commentators suspect that France and China want to
build a multipolar alliance to counter American "hegemony."
This rings true, if only because the justifications Europeans proffer for
renewed arms sales are patently fraudulent. Like the United States, the EU
embargoed all arms sales to China after the bloody suppression of
pro-democracy demonstrations in Tiananmen Square in 1989. Since then,
Beijing has steadily introduced market reforms for China's economy, but its
political, religious, and labor suppression has, if anything, worsened.
Senior Chinese diplomats recently held talks with EU officials to persuade
them to lift the ban. They hint that if the EU lifts the sanctions, China
will steer its big-ticket civilian purchases, including aircraft, power
stations, and mass transit, away from American vendors to EU firms.
Last December, German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder announced in Beijing that
Germany was amenable to ending the embargo. European Trade Commissioner
Pascal Lamy added his support to Schroeder's proposal.
Not to be outdone, French President Jacques Chirac invited Chinese President
Hu Jintao to Paris. Ignoring the complaints of French human-rights groups,
Chirac designated 2004 the "Year of China" and threw one of the most
extravagant receptions France has ever given a foreign leader. One
highlight: the Eiffel Tower bathed in red floodlights, a first ever for the
Parisian landmark.
Perhaps the red lights blinded Chirac to China's massive missile threat to
Taiwan — more than 500 short-range ballistic missiles now aimed at the
island, with 75 new missiles deployed each year. He vehemently condemned
Taiwan's plans to hold a referendum to protest the missiles. As for the
embargo, it "no longer makes any sense," Chirac announced.
France now calls China "a special partner...playing a key and responsible
role in the international system" and declares that the EU "should encourage
it in this direction to contribute to international stability and security,
especially in Asia." This despite China's growing missile threat to Taiwan,
its support of North Korea's right to have nuclear weapons as a "legitimate
security concern" against a U.S. threat, and Beijing's increasingly
vitriolic criticisms of Hong Kong's hugely popular democratic party.
France's sudden announcement of joint naval exercises with China the week
before Taiwan's election caught U.S. officials by surprise. As the Asian
Wall Street Journal pointed out last week, "politically, France has for
years now coveted an alliance with China to further Paris's goal of a
'multipolar world,' which is really a euphemism for constraining U.S.
power."
Meanwhile, the U.S. State Department seems unsure how to approach EU allies.
According to Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage, the United States
has "talked with Europeans about the wisdom of lifting the embargo because
of our concerns about human rights." A review of the State Department's
annual human-rights reports from 1990 to 2003 shows that China either has
made no progress from year to year or has grown worse.
But the defense ramifications loom even larger. A senior Pentagon official
recently warned Congress that "China's ability to acquire, integrate and
thereby multiply its force posture has really increased dramatically." Most
worrisome, he said, is the fact that "there are scenarios where we could
actually be involved in [the defense of Taiwan], so any contribution to the
other side of the equation complicates our position and that is why we're
opposed."
China's $65 billion defense budget is the second largest in the world after
the United States, and China is aggressively modernizing its military. It
seeks the most modern military technology available. China still threatens
Taiwan with war, and the United States has strategic, moral, and legal
obligations to help democratic Taiwan defend itself.
An EU decision to proceed with arms sales to the world's most powerful
dictatorship could strain the Atlantic alliance to the breaking point. If
commercial advantage in China's market is all the Europeans want, perhaps
they can be talked out of this. But if they're determined to enlist China in
an alignment to hem in American "hegemony," then the Atlantic alliance may
be on its deathbed.
— John J. Tkacik Jr. is a research fellow in the Asian Studies Center of the
Heritage Foundation.
March 25, 2004
L’Année de la Chine
By John J. Tkacik Jr.
Will Europe arm Red China?
http://www.nationalreview.com/comment/tkacik200403250900.asp
A bitter dispute over election results is bad enough. But Taiwan's
troubles — and ours — may be just beginning.
The reason: Our European allies might well approve plans to sell China
advanced weaponry at the March 25-26 European Union summit that begins
today.
The repercussions would be disastrous. Not only could China use new weapons
from Europe against Taiwan, but Chinese generals have said they're prepared
to confront U.S. forces in the Pacific if America tries to help Taiwan.
Why would NATO allies put the United States in this position? Money is one
reason. But European commentators suspect that France and China want to
build a multipolar alliance to counter American "hegemony."
This rings true, if only because the justifications Europeans proffer for
renewed arms sales are patently fraudulent. Like the United States, the EU
embargoed all arms sales to China after the bloody suppression of
pro-democracy demonstrations in Tiananmen Square in 1989. Since then,
Beijing has steadily introduced market reforms for China's economy, but its
political, religious, and labor suppression has, if anything, worsened.
Senior Chinese diplomats recently held talks with EU officials to persuade
them to lift the ban. They hint that if the EU lifts the sanctions, China
will steer its big-ticket civilian purchases, including aircraft, power
stations, and mass transit, away from American vendors to EU firms.
Last December, German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder announced in Beijing that
Germany was amenable to ending the embargo. European Trade Commissioner
Pascal Lamy added his support to Schroeder's proposal.
Not to be outdone, French President Jacques Chirac invited Chinese President
Hu Jintao to Paris. Ignoring the complaints of French human-rights groups,
Chirac designated 2004 the "Year of China" and threw one of the most
extravagant receptions France has ever given a foreign leader. One
highlight: the Eiffel Tower bathed in red floodlights, a first ever for the
Parisian landmark.
Perhaps the red lights blinded Chirac to China's massive missile threat to
Taiwan — more than 500 short-range ballistic missiles now aimed at the
island, with 75 new missiles deployed each year. He vehemently condemned
Taiwan's plans to hold a referendum to protest the missiles. As for the
embargo, it "no longer makes any sense," Chirac announced.
France now calls China "a special partner...playing a key and responsible
role in the international system" and declares that the EU "should encourage
it in this direction to contribute to international stability and security,
especially in Asia." This despite China's growing missile threat to Taiwan,
its support of North Korea's right to have nuclear weapons as a "legitimate
security concern" against a U.S. threat, and Beijing's increasingly
vitriolic criticisms of Hong Kong's hugely popular democratic party.
France's sudden announcement of joint naval exercises with China the week
before Taiwan's election caught U.S. officials by surprise. As the Asian
Wall Street Journal pointed out last week, "politically, France has for
years now coveted an alliance with China to further Paris's goal of a
'multipolar world,' which is really a euphemism for constraining U.S.
power."
Meanwhile, the U.S. State Department seems unsure how to approach EU allies.
According to Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage, the United States
has "talked with Europeans about the wisdom of lifting the embargo because
of our concerns about human rights." A review of the State Department's
annual human-rights reports from 1990 to 2003 shows that China either has
made no progress from year to year or has grown worse.
But the defense ramifications loom even larger. A senior Pentagon official
recently warned Congress that "China's ability to acquire, integrate and
thereby multiply its force posture has really increased dramatically." Most
worrisome, he said, is the fact that "there are scenarios where we could
actually be involved in [the defense of Taiwan], so any contribution to the
other side of the equation complicates our position and that is why we're
opposed."
China's $65 billion defense budget is the second largest in the world after
the United States, and China is aggressively modernizing its military. It
seeks the most modern military technology available. China still threatens
Taiwan with war, and the United States has strategic, moral, and legal
obligations to help democratic Taiwan defend itself.
An EU decision to proceed with arms sales to the world's most powerful
dictatorship could strain the Atlantic alliance to the breaking point. If
commercial advantage in China's market is all the Europeans want, perhaps
they can be talked out of this. But if they're determined to enlist China in
an alignment to hem in American "hegemony," then the Atlantic alliance may
be on its deathbed.
— John J. Tkacik Jr. is a research fellow in the Asian Studies Center of the
Heritage Foundation.
