You're forgetting the impact of training. Take the following two scenarios;
Scenario #1
A person carries cocked and locked but carries under two layers of clothing, does not train at all and walks around with their head in the clouds or staring at the ground hands in pockets. Never practices drawing from concealment and most likely has his/her firearm stuffed with the latest and greatest whizbang ammo but hasn't even tested it through their firearm because it is too expensive to "waste" in practice. Uses winchester white box twice a year shooting at some cans from a rest for "practice".
Scenario #2
A person who carries condition 3 but trains to draw and rack from a well thought out carry position and pays attention to their surroundings. They shoot often and have run at least two hundred rounds of their carry ammo through their firearm to make sure it would feed reliably. Carries head high, always looking around hands free and available
Things aren't always cut and dried, there are many factors involved in rendering a verdict on who is better prepared for a scenario than just the mode they choose to carry their firearm in.
BTW, thank you for your service
You're welcome...and thank you for noticing!
No, I'm not forgetting training. Training is a huge part of any self-defense tactics, of course. But training can only go so far in making up ground from a less advantageous starting position in the first place.
You and I can always come up with specific scenarios in which one or the other method/tactic does or does not work well. But it's not the specifics being discussed here...it's the generalities. We can each envision specific scenarios in which one method clearly overshadows the other.
However, for a firearm of any kind to be readily used as a means to effectively
project deadly force, it must be ready to use in that manner with the least amount of time and effort. This is a general truism that, when deviated from, requires ever increasing efforts in other ways in order to make up for any losses engendered.
If the firearm is ready to use in such a fashion, then it provides two distinct and important advantages to the defender:
1. It enables the defender to more rapidly and reliably bring his firearm into effective use.
2. It enables the defender to use his free hand/arm to provide him with other tactical/strategic advantages at the same time, giving him more options.
If you compromise this general truism, then you narrow down some of your options by having to tie up your other hand/arm in order to make your firearm ready for use.
It's been said that no battle plan ever survives contact with the enemy, and self-defense is no different. The key lies in giving yourself all the advantages you can while providing yourself with the best and most options that you can. And yes, having the training to effectively set up and utilize these as well.
Going back to your above scenarios, if two people are trained in both methods of carrying an presenting their firearms in Condition 1 and Condition 3, then the advantage lies with the person who chooses to carry Condition 1 over the one who chooses to carry Condition 3. It's not just a matter of training...it's a matter of simple mechanics.
Now, lest you (or anyone else) think that I'm arguing for one method over another over some personal opinion, let me reiterate my stand here: I'm for people making their own decisions based on
informed facts and experience(s), not simple personal opinion.
How one carries a firearm is based on many factors, but the "HOW" of carrying a firearm involves "compromises" from one condition to another based on the sheer mechanics involved in being able to effectively utilize the firearm from each given condition.