Will any new Rifle or Pistol cartridge/caliber become common?

[Aim1]

You have your common (standard) calibers such as .45, 9mm, .22lr, .30-06, .308, .338 and so forth for rifle and pistols.

However, there are new calibers being made all the time and even older ones are gaining newfound popularity, especially in the AR15 platform such as .300 Blackout, .300 Whisper, .204 Ruger and others. You're seeing new rifle calibers such as the .26 Nosler, .28 Nosler, and now . 30 Nosler.

I can't think of any newer pistol calibers but the old .380 has quickly become more popular due to so many people with carry permits including women.



I know the general rule when I was younger and buying a rifle was buy a rifle that can handle anything you ever think you'd hunt (for me it was elk on down), in a caliber that can be purchased anywhere because if you do hunt out of state and you need to pick up ammo you'd most likely have a limited selection at small local stores and would want a common caliber that most people carried such as .308, .30-06, and .338. It would be a bad idea to purchase a rifle in a caliber like .300 Blackout because if you lose your ammo and need to stop at Woodland Sports and Gas in the middle of nowhere they are most likely going carry those common rounds and not the .300 Blackout. I know at most small stores you could find 9mm and .45, although .380 could be hard to find in many stores still despite it's popularity.



With the advent of new calibers occurring all the time do you see any rifle or pistol caliber/cartridge becoming a common one or have all the common ones already been basically set in stone.

 

[jmr40]

Yes. While the old favorites will remain, over time they become less popular. They are better than ever but rounds like 30-30 are declining. 35 remember used to be very popular but it is almost impossible to find ammo now. Long action 30-06 and 270 are rapidly losing ground. New rounds such.as 6.5 Creedmoor are gaining. The 10mm was once thought dead but is coming back strong

 

[bang_bang]

I can see calibers such as the 300 blackout declining in popularity more so than a 30-30, but that might just be where I'm physically located. AR builders are constantly trying new ideas to feed in the next rifle to compete with each other. Personally I've considered the 25 Sharps round for an AR build for deer hunting, whereas the 300 blackout hasn't impressed me enough to build and load for.

 

[Aim1]

Yes. While the old favorites will remain, over time they become less popular. They are better than ever but rounds like 30-30 are declining. 35 remember used to be very popular but it is almost impossible to find ammo now. Long action 30-06 and 270 are rapidly losing ground. New rounds such.as 6.5 Creedmoor are gaining. The 10mm was once thought dead but is coming back strong.

The 10mm is popular now but do you ever see it becoming as popular as the 9mm and .45, do you see it being sold in small stores say like in the middle of nowhere Montana?

 

[buck460XVR]

Long action 30-06 and 270 are rapidly losing ground.

The owner of my LGS claims they still sell more 30-06 rifles than any other centerfire caliber. Come deer season he orders as much 30-06 ammo as all others combined. When I go to my local Wal-mart in the fall there are two large open shelves stacked with rifle ammo, where you can help youself. One shelf is 30-30, the other is 30-06. If you want any other caliber, you have to ask for it and they take it from the small display case behind the counter. I highly doubt that 30-06 is losing ground that quickly.....at least around here.

There are so many different calibers out there right now, and they overlap ballistically and terminal performance wise so much, the only difference between so many of them is the name. The .308 at one time was meant to replace the venerable 30-06 and those of us with ought-sixes were told that ammo soon would be hard to find(think late sixties). But, the only thing that kept the .308 from riding off into the sunset was the recent sudden popularity of that caliber in AR type platforms. Ammo once very limited in LGSs a decade ago, is now stacked arm's length deep on the shelf. Shooters are a fickle bunch. Many of us want that little something different than what everyone else shoots. Some of us have purposes that are not met with the old standbys. Some folks just like hearing the name of their caliber roll off their tongue.

 

[dragon813gt]

The 10mm is popular now but do you ever see it becoming as popular as the 9mm and .45, do you see it being sold in small stores say like in the middle of nowhere Montana?

No, and I doubt you will ever see the small stores carry the non standards consistently. 300 BLK is a pretty worthless cartridge IMO if you aren't running a suppressed SBR, which most aren't. Time will tell if it survives in the long run but it seems like it has a good chance at the moment.

The Nosler line was dead before it even hit the market. It doesn't do anything that much better to make it a round you have to have. But the same can be said for a ton of cartridges over the years. Fact is that the standard cartridges are more than enough for the vast majority of shooters.

I want to see the 327 Federal succeed. If you haven't shot it then it's hard to explain it's appeal. I reload so there are a lot of aspects to like. But for SD 357 ballistics w/ less recoil and an extra round is very appealing. More companies need to make firearms for it. And more than anything It needs to be chambered in a lever action

 

[TruthTellers]

Yeah, I think 6.5 Creedmore has the potential to become very popular. Flatter trajectory, less recoil, and factory made ammunition is well priced in comparison to something like .338 Lapua or 6.8 Remington. Speaking of which, 6.8 SPC could become common but only if it's adopted by the military as the standard rifle cartridge to replace the 5.56.

jmr said above that older rounds like .30-30 are declining in popularity and that's going to continue over time and will include others like .45-70, .444 Marlin, and other larger bore rifle cartridges. Price is always a factor and it costs more to shoot big bore than small.

Over on the pistol side of things it's almost the opposite; I think the small bore pistol rounds like .25, .32 ACP, 7.62x25 will become rarer than 10mm because in handguns people want power. That said, I don't think any handgun round will become as popular as 9mm or .45 ACP is. While 10mm/.357 Sig may get more popular as new shooters begin to embrace reloading, I don't think they'll ever get up to 9mm because even new shooters are more focused on shooting then reloading and 9mm is the cheapest and most plentiful.

Having said that, I think .380 will become the second or third most popular handgun round due to the abundance of all these micro CCW .380's out there now.

 

[TruthTellers]

I want to see the 327 Federal succeed. If you haven't shot it then it's hard to explain it's appeal. I reload so there are a lot of aspects to like. But for SD 357 ballistics w/ less recoil and an extra round is very appealing. More companies need to make firearms for it. And more than anything It needs to be chambered in a lever action

It'll happen so long as the sales for Ruger's .327 LCR are strong. Companies usually like to have a slice of every pie, unless you're S&W or Taurus and you hate the idea of selling a SA revolver.

 

[OilyPablo]

10mm & 6.8SPC

 

[Fiv3r]

I don't see a lot of expansion on the handgun caliber front (short of something new in the hunting revolver world).

The handgun is such a compromise as it is that I can't see adding a bit of girth to a bullet or necking something down gain you much of anything in terms of statistical performance compared to the more established cartridges. I mean look at .40 S&W. It's my caliber of choice, but with the advancement of ballistics and bullet technology it is losing its appeal to the old 9mm.

Then you have pistol calibers that they tried to market like the .45 GAP or .50 G.I. I'm still interested in TCM .22, but I doubt I will see it chambered in much of anything short of the RIA pistols. Even at that, I think I would only buy one if it came with the 9mm conversion (just in case).

My guess is that until something cutting edge comes along like caseless ammo or a handgun that uses a charge to fire something completely new, you aren't going to see anyone take over where the big guys are already sitting.

Now rifles. That can be a whole different story. Rifles offer real ballistic difference when it comes to performance. I could see a lot of new and exciting things coming down the pipe that may cut into the status quo. This is especially true if the military adopts a new standard round.

Also, rifles, for the most part, are hunting tools. A lot of what deems a rifle caliber marketable is conforming to hunting regulations, and those tend to change over time. Take the venerable 30-30. The caliber that has sent more whitetails to Bambi Heaven, it is a proven medicine for hunting...you can't hunt with it in my state. It requires a rifle to be at least .35. Basically, they only want people hunting with fat pistol calibers that have rainbow arcs so that it is less likely someone plants a soft-point into someone's kid's nursery a mile away.

Depending on what is allowed (or restricted) a new caliber could climb to the top of the heap if enough red tape where tossed around current calibers.

 

[Ryanxia]

I think there will be some new standards over time. .300 blackout is a good example, it filled a niche, a great caliber for suppressed shooting that required minimal alteration of a standard AR15, arguably the most popular rifle platform in the US. Will it become THE standard? No. But it has and will become more and more common.

I bet there will be more over time. The .22TCM tried to do something similar for handguns, maybe it will catch on, maybe something similar will be all the rage. I think in the future there will be others though. Time will tell.

 

[David4516]

I'd like to see older calibers make comebacks rather than have a bunch of new calibers, but that's just me. How cool would it be to see .30-40 Krag flying off of store shelves? Or .257 roberts?

As for the new calibers, I kinda like the look of .25 sharps (from what I can tell it's basically just .223 necked up for .257 bullets?), it makes more sense to me than .300BLK (unless you have a suppressor).

I think the only way a new caliber would become crazy-popular is if the army adopts it as a new standard.

 

[BSA1]

Ditto on shooters being a fickle bunch.

Consider the .32 Magnum. With the growth of women getting conceal carry permits and sales of small frame revolvers the .32 Magnum seems like it would be very popular. The advantage of a 6 vs. 5 rounds in a 95 +/- gr. JHP J-Frame with lighter recoil seems to be a win-win on all counts. Yet the 5 shot 38 Spl. snubbie remains dominant.

Based on this I think the .327 is going to follow the path of the 41 Magnum after it's big splash.

I'm not much of a rifleman although I some interesting choices in my safe. What some of the naysayers are missing with the 300 Blk. is urbanization is creating the need for less noise to avoid upsetting folks as much. Urbanization is also causing shooting distances to be shorter. As suppressors become more common there will be interest in other cartridges that can be silenced effectively and deliver good mid-range performance.

 

[Panzerschwein]

I think we can chalk .300 BLK into the "success" category. I think it has good staying power, especially with the rise in suppressor usage in this country.

As for a handgun caliber? I'm drawing some blanks on that one.

 

[Slamfire]

New niches are so small, a razor blade won't fit between them. Just look at Cartridges of the World and tell me there is a gap anywhere.

 

[barnbwt]

Rimmed rounds will continue the decline, rimless equivalents stepping up to fill the gap. 5.7 will grow in popularity, along with TCM provided they quit futzing with the design.

All other niches are pretty stable & stocked up.

 

[IlikeSA]

No one mentioned shotguns! Twelve and twenty will stay, and .410 is now more firmly established than before, thanks to Taurus and Smith and Wesson. Sixteen and ten gauge are fading away. I don't think I have ever seen one on the shelf of big box stores.

Rifles: most of the specialty ultramags will fade. Thirty ought six is here to stay, no matter what happens. Three hundred BLK will fade UNLESS suppressors become legal to get without all of the paperwork. It honestly is like making an AR into a semiauto hot 357 magnum rifle, give or take.

Handguns: 9x23 and 9x21 will continue to fade, anything 22 but 22 LR will fade, the 17's are here to stay with the scare shortage of 22 LR. Of the larger bores: 460 Rowland and 45 Super are fading except for specialty stores, 41 magnum will hold steady for the next 20 years, 10mm will rise with non police and military shooters.

Just my predictions.

 

[Bula]

It's Darwinism at its finest. Most will fail due to their very nature. We're lucky that old calibers that have become standards fill 99.99% of most shooters needs. I like innovation as much as the next guy, but who wants to spend 3x more to shoot odd ball calibers. Especially when the 'common' and readily available calibers fill the requirements of the shooter. There will always be the niche wildcat reloaders, hopefully. That's the fun part. The standards will stay for a long time. Remember the Ford V10? Just just buy the diesel already!

 

[ApplePie]

I can think of only two new cartridges in the last 25 years that have become undeniable overwhelming successes. Those are the .17 HMR and the .40 S&W.

Every other one has had only limited success because they don't do anything appreciably better than existing firmly established cartridges, or because they are "niche" products. Manufacturers like to introduce new cartridges in order to sell new guns.

 

[ApplePie]

Remember the Ford V10? Just just buy the diesel already!

The Ford V10 was a replacement for the Ford 460 V8, with 20-percent better fuel economy. The diesel cost thousands more.

 

[yugorpk]

The 300 BLK will continue to grow in popularity.

The 45 Colt, far from a new cartridge , will continue to rise from the dead.

 

[FL-NC]

The 10mm is coming back some, kind of like the 38 super. Nothing crazy, but there's a small following. The 6.5 creed and 300 B/O have some potential "staying power", I guess. I'm 48. These are some rounds that at the time of their release were thought to be like inventing the wheel but never went far (IMO): 10mm, 40 A/E, 357 Sig, 45 GAP, 400 cor-bon, 500 s&W, 480 Ruger, short magnums, 6.8 SPC, 6.5 Grendell, 17 Mach 2, that round from Remington that used electric ignition, etc etc. While rounds like the 41 mag and 16 gauge "refuse to die", the most generous thing to say about them is that they have a "following". 44 special sticks around cause it will go in a 44 mag. To me, the worst gamble a ammo company could make would be to invent some "new revolutionary caliber". The only one invented in my time that is firmly established (IMO) is the 40 S&W. Personally I won't own a caliber that isn't sold at Wal Mart. Just my 2 cents.

 

[dragon813gt]

Personally I won't own a caliber that isn't sold at Wal Mart. Just my 2 cents.

While I don't share this sentiment, I reload, it brings up a good point. Wal-Mart carrying it means it's firmly established. But I can't buy 308 at two of the three by me so all Wal-Marts are not the same. None of them carry 300 BLK but the LGS does.

The internet has the potential to keep cartridges around longer than in the past. Local stores don't have to stock the slow selling ones. But the large online retailers can find a broad customer base for them. They may be able to persuade one of the manufacturers to produce a run for them. The local stores never had this type of power.

There are lots of cartridges that have been touted as dead for a long time but are still around. 300 Savage and 35 Remington are towards the top of that list. But both are still available and popular by me. A lot of it has to do w/ the amount of fine old rifles chambered for them. 35 Remington in particular is very popular w/ PA hunters. Unfortunately for the manufacturers firearms don't have expiration dates and ones over a century old still work great. So they continue to produce ammo for them knowing that people would be outraged if they stopped and were forced to buy the latest and greatest.

 

[Ryanxia]

New niches are so small, a razor blade won't fit between them. Just look at Cartridges of the World and tell me there is a gap anywhere.

It's not just what a cartridge can do, I think the niche that can still be filled is with calibers that can be designed around existing popular firearms that change the role without changing many parts. I use the .300BLK as an example, it's not that there was no other caliber that could be suppressed as well as it, but that it only takes a barrel change on an AR (or swap the upper) to get a completely different animal.
So I think the niches are in taking popular platforms like an AR15, Glock, even 1911, etc. and designing a cartridge that is compatible that fills a different role.

 

[FL-NC]

I'm sure there was a time when the 32-20, 44-40, 30-40 Krag, and many others were seen as the "go to", and that they would be forever and ever.