I think properly stored factory ammo can last 40-50 years or more from personal experience, however handloads more like 15 years. I try to only load up what I plan to use in the next 5 years and try to keep components on hand long term rather than loaded cartridges.
This stuff deteriorated around 45 years old, and George Burns smoked cigars and drink liquor and lived to 100 years old. But that does not prove every hard drinking smoker will live to 100.
And no body seems to recall these recalls, they were in all the Gun Magazines, and no body seems to understand this is not "bad" powder, it is deteriorated gunpowder. Read the text, fuming, acidic smell, auto combustion, etc.
The thing is, gunpowder deterioration is so unpredictable that each service in the Department of Defense pays people to inspect the stockpile.
These charts are from a 1969 and 1970 symposium. And here, they are discarding 30 year old ammunition.
The Department of Defense removes a staggering amount of old and deteriorated munitions from inventory and sends them to demilling facilities, such as Camp Minden Louisanna to demill before the stuff autocombusts in the case.
From what I read, the majority of this stockpile, by weight, is small arms munitions. But given 500,000 tons of the stuff, I am sure there are a lot of artillery shells, cannon ammunition, rocket motors, etc. I do know the early
Army TACMS missiles were pulled from inventory at 20 years and stored at White Sands Missile Range for use as targets. If the TACMS rocket blows up in the air, in a test, sure Uncle Sam is out some millions for a wasted test, but, in terms of killing people, its a big nothing burger. As targets, old rockets are so much cheaper than making new. I don't know if those were shipped to Ukraine as free HIMARS munitions, would not surprise me a bit. I read of X ray techniques which were being used to X ray motors, to find cavities within the binders and stuff. Ninety nine percent of rockets use smokeless propellants, which are nitro cellulose based.
This is more or less gives rules of thumb for the rate of deterioration of nitrocellulose based munitions
Army Not Producing Enough Ammunition
http://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/archive/2003/May/Pages/Army_Not3866.aspx
Regardless of what the Army decides to do with its industrial base, the fundamental issue does not change: the Army needs to produce more war reserve ammunition, Naughton said. Time is running out, he said. “Most of the ammunition in the stockpile today was built 20 years ago during the Cold War buildup.” Most rounds are designed to have a shelf life of 20 years. “We are outside the envelope of the shelf life on 40 percent or more of our existing ammunition. The rest is rapidly approaching the end of its shelf life.”
Ammunition does not “go bad” overnight, after it reaches a certain age, but “once it’s over 20 years old, the reliability rapidly degrades,” said Naughton. Within a few years, it will become increasingly difficult to shoot it. “You can predict that you’ll lose 7-8 percent of the ammo after the 20-year mark.”*
To replace the obsolete rounds, the Army would have to produce 100,000 tons of war reserve ammunition a year for the next seven years. Past that point, it would need 50,000 tons to 60,000 tons a year to sustain the stockpile. That represents about “half the level of the Cold War buildup,” he said.
* I think what is meant, 7-8 percent per year after 20 years.
My advice, break the seals on your cans of gunpowder and give a sniff. If it smells bad, get rid of it. Do this when you think about it. The lifetime of gunpowders is so unpredictable, you need to inspect your powders, and that is the bottom line.
Having lost thousands of good rifle cases, because I loaded them up and let them sit around for more than a decade, and then they cracked when fired, it is better to load ammunition that you know you will shoot in a couple of years.
Old surplus ammunition is not to be trusted. The stuff was removed from inventory because some ammunition technician determined that it was too dangerous to store or issue. The US military wants to remove the stuff when it has five years of stability left, that gives DoD time to demill without it blowing up trains and trucks. However, since the stuff deteriorates unpredictably, they might catch it when it has a "year" or less of stability.
Ammunition Surveillance Procedures SB 742-1
Chapter 13 Propellant and Propelling Charges
page 13-1
WARNING
Nitrocellulose-based propellant can become thermally unstable as the age. The normal aging process of the propellants involves deterioration of the nitrocellulose with an accompanying generation of heat. At some point, the propellant may reach a state where heat is generated faster than it can be dissipated. The accumulation of heat can lead to combustion (auto ignition). Chemical stabilizers are added to propellants to slow the aging process. In time, the stabilizer levels will drop to a point where the remaining effective stabilizer (RES) is not sufficient to prevent an accelerating rate of decomposition. When this point is reached, the propellant may auto ignite, with possible catastrophic results to property and life. Monitoring the stability level of each propellant lot is essential for continued safe storage.
Page 13-5 , Table 13.2 Propellant Stability Codes.
Stability Category A 0.30 or more Percent Effective Stabilizer
Acceptable stabilizer loss: safe for continued storage
C 0.29-0.20 Percent Effective Stabilizer
Significant stabilizer loss. Lot does not represent an immediate hazard, but is approaching a potentially hazardous stability condition. Loss of stabilizer does adversely affect function in an uploaded configuration. Disposition instructions will be furnished by NAR. All stability category “C” assests on the installation must be reported in writing…
One year after becoming stability category “C” a sample of the bulk propellant lot or the bulk-packed component lot will be retested. If the lot has not deteriorated to category “D”, it will be retested each year until it has been expended, or it has deteriorated to category “D”, at which point it will be demilitarized within 60 days.
D Less than 0.20 Percent Effective Stabilizer
Unacceptable stabilizer loss. Lots identified as stability category “D” present a potential safety hazard and are unsafe for continued storage as bulk, bulk-packed components , or as separate loading propellant chargers. Bulk propellant, bulk –packed components and separate loading propelling charges will be demilitarized within 60 days after notification of category “D” status.
that old surplus can surprise you!
Ammunition Evaluation: 1941 Turkish 8mm Mauser
At ten minutes 44 seconds, you see that the stock cracked from firing this ammunition!
Ian Rants About Dumb Ammo Purchasing Decisions