Personally, in my market analysis, I think the game is already decided, we’re just waiting for the dust to settle.
Remlins prices jumped when production stopped, because there isn’t another alternative, currently. When Marlin/Rem Outdoors’ supply dropped, the market hit a supply deficit, which drove up prices. The JM prices were a ceiling, as there was no more of them already coming to market, and they were perceived as favorable for quality AND more scarce, so the Remlin prices jumped markedly to near JM prices… until new production volume is regained to rebalance the supply to the existing demand. Equally, we’re in one of the worst economic situations in modern history, with extreme inflation and skyrocketing interest rates, and even runs on investment banks, AND we have the speculation that retooling and adoption of the product lines by Ruger will draw considerable price increases when they relaunch the line - with that speculation pushing increased price on the Remlins… again; until the new production hits the market and restabilizes, especially if we get out of the War for Eastern Ukraine in coincidental timing…
From what I can see, the demographic of which want JM’s will continue to want JM’s, and will continue to NOT buy new firearms, because they’re older and don’t buy new guns anyway - they have what they need. But the demography of folks which actually make up the broadest buyers of firearms are NOT buying leverguns, and are far too young to give a damn about pre or post ‘64 this or that, or JM versus Remlin… The folks which want the JM’s and do buy will continue paying grossly inflated prices, because they want them, there are less and less of them available for sale (either surviving in market at all or avoiding solidified collector accumulation, which is effectively the same as being destroyed in terms of market volume), and because they’re of an age of disposable income to buy what they want because they want it. But again, most of the folks which would want a JM simply aren’t buying guns any longer, so the influence is moot. Honestly, I doubt within a generation that the value of JM’s will even track with inflation, and their value will be depressed to closer parity, either slightly above or slightly below, with the new manufacture models than what the JM collectors might believe it should be.
The broadest gun buying demographic might choose between a used Remlin and retail priced Ruglin, but most will see reviews that Remlins had spotty QC and no longer offer any OEM support, while Ruger has the highest reputation for customer service and support in the market, and better manufacturing reputation than Remington Outdoor, so at price parity, the Ruglin will get heavy market favor, and the Remlin will continue to languish. I do expect as these new models hit the market from Ruger, we’ll see more price depression of used Remlins, eventually lagging in value behind the used market price of newer and better supported Ruglins, once their used market becomes established.
As a local example, living in the Midwest where guns are popular, and especially leverguns have a strong niche, I posted a couple of my JM 1894’s recently, on the same day I posted a couple of AR’s. The AR’s sold in a day, no negotiation on price, and sold for more than I’d paid to build them a couple of years before covid. The 1894’s were met with messages from grey tops saying the prices were too high, and a few low ballers which were offering 1990’s value for them, and then finally sold after a couple of weeks, at fair market value. As a JM fan myself - a younger model of the demographic, indoctrinated heavily by my familial generations and my cowboy upbringing - I can’t bring myself to pay $1000 for a used rifle which I would have bought 15yrs ago for $400, and 20yrs ago for $300, new off the rack. I’m working on sourcing a rifle for a (whimsy) project, a custom 1894SS in 357/44 B&D, and I’m flat choking on the price I’ll end up paying for the donor rifle - looking only for JM’s, and debating whether I want to simply wait for Ruger to start their production.
