Guns like Glocks,...129 years in the future.

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Orion8472

Orion8472

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I am in the process of watching the newest Hickok45 video on his old Colt that is 129 years old...and it got me thinking about our modern style guns.

1. Do you think guns like Glocks will last 129 years?

And more importantly...

2. Would anyone actually care?

I see old western guns and find them quite fascinating,...which is why I am starting to collect more of the single action style revolvers. Modern guns seem to be "just for functionality". They really have no character.

Feel free to discuss this further. As for me, I am quite bored with my modern semi-auto pistols. Time to save up for a birdshead! :-D
 
I like my Glocks and other polymer guns but they are just good tools. The lack of craftsmanship is what makes them both affordable and disposable.
Though not relevant to tho OP's question at all, in 100 years all the books about global warming will be on the same shelf as Chicken Little.

(A previous reply, now deleted, made a bizarre reference to global warming)
 
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there is no reason that a glock you bought today would not be around in 129 years. They are well made, durable firearms and barring abuse and being left out in the elements, will probably be in better shape than most 129 year old guns today. The metallurgy is better and the polymer isnt going to rust.

Though not relevant to tho OP's question at all, in 100 years all the books about global warming will be on the same shelf as Chicken Little.
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yeah under ten feet of water.
 
I'm not so sure that polymer guns will last 100 years. Some studies indicate that they start to deteriorate after 50 ~60 years. Nobody seems to know how much they will go downhill, nor how long it will take. :uhoh:
 
Glock's are a fad. Pretty soon we'll find something else to go gaga about and waste or money.
 
I have no idea how long they'll last, but they likely won't have the appeal of guns currently that old. They are so mass produced in order to meet the demands of a much larger population, with very little distinguishing the different models, that I sincerely doubt they will have collectible value. The guns of yesteryear have both craftsmanship and scarcity in their favor.
 
Some studies indicate that they start to deteriorate after 50 ~60 years. Nobody seems to know how much they will go downhill, nor how long it will take.
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Nylon (a common component of polymer pistol frames) was invented over 80 years ago so its properties, including its degradation over time, are pretty well known.

In addition, there are accelerated aging tests which provide insight into how polymers will hold up over very long timeframes. There's not a lot of mystery to it. Years ago, I poked around and found the results of one accelerated UV exposure test that indicated if you leave your Glock in direct sunlight for 100 years, the structural properties of the frame will degrade by an insignificant amount.

This topic always makes me chuckle because I missed the point when everyone made the switch from worrying that plastic garbage was going to last forever and cover the world with eternal and indestructible clutter to worrying that our high-value polymer items would melt away in the sunlight if we weren't careful.
 
Since it always starts a half-dozen pages of rebuttal, I'll say it once: :)

The polymer used in Glocks & similar poly-framed guns begins to degrade as soon as it's out of the mold.

This is a very SLOW degradation, but it is a very real degradation.
It may feel & appear the same for decades, but how it looks & feels on the outside is irrelevant, since it'll be losing structural strength in a way that you won't be able to detect till it fails in use.

Right about now somebody makes a joke about crumbling into dust.
This is not how the material degrades & it's not what I'm talking about.

Depending on formulation, all plastics will eventually either harden to a point of brittleness, or soften up to a point of weakness.

The polymer formulations we have now have not been around long enough to determine the "working age" of the material.

Yes- I know about the Nylon 66 & the VP70.
I'm not saying polymer frames will become useless in 50 years due to degradation, but it's unlikely a polygun's frame will still be serviceable at 100.

The practical life span of a polygun is unknown, but I wouldn't count on it being safe to shoot anywhere near as long as a steel design.

And right about here is where the comments about "I don't care, all it's gotta do is outlast my need for it".
Which is fine.

I'm just responding to the original question.
Glocks & such will easily last 129 years, IN FORM.
But they won't be safe to fire.
Denis
 
The way I look at is that if Hickok45 has a 129 yr. old Colt then that Colt has probably led a somewhat easy life and hasn't had a bazillion rounds through it. They made a lot of those back then and where are 90% or whatever of them today? I'm sure lots of them were simply worn out and eventually neglected whereas the survivors were the ones that saw light use and excellent care. My Glock 19 was 4 years old this past February. Its had a little over 1500 rounds through it since it was new. So if it rarely gets fired and gets proper storage it only has 125 years to go to be 129. I can't think of any reason why it wouldn't make it, or am I forgetting something? I can't see polymer degradation as a factor unless it was left in direct sunlight all summer every summer for a decade or so. Metallurgy wise there should be no problem except rust, but all guns are subject to that. So I'm sure it'll outlast my need for it so maybe this is all a moot point. I'd make a large bet that my four year old Glock could survive to be 129 years old but how am I gonna collect it if I win?
 
Will their be Glocks in a museum that are shootable 200 years from now. Probably not. Will there be Ruger GP100s in a museum that are shootable 200 years from now. Probably so.

Plastics degrade. It may happen slow enough not to matter for a generation but they do degrade.

That being said and this is note an apples to apples comparison but I have some "plastic" grips on an old Sauer handgun that are Getting to the 100 year old range and they are fine. Of course they are not load bearing. I would assume they might be something like Bakelite.
 
I would say if you wanted to hedge your bets so to speak and know you have a firearm to pass on to your subsequent generations, make it a well cared for metal one. Shoot the snot out of the plastic ones. If they end up with both. Great for them. If not they still have that old beretta or colt or smith wheel gun.
 
The polymer used in Glocks & similar poly-framed guns begins to degrade as soon as it's out of the mold.

This is a very SLOW degradation, but it is a very real degradation.
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Under reasonable conditions it is very slow indeed.

It seems that the worst case, real-world scenario for polyamides (nylon) is constant exposure to hot water. For example, if you were to store a nylon-based polymer in water that was 160 degrees F, the usable lifespan could be 5 years or less.

But store it in water that is only 130 degrees F and the lifespan increases by a factor of 6 to a minimum about 30 years. Of course, even that is an extreme storage scenario. As the storage temperature decreases, the usable lifetime of the material increases dramatically. For example, dropping the wet storage temperature from 65 to 60 degrees Celsius (5 degrees C) would increase the usable lifetime by about 5 years, dropping it from 60 to 55 C (still 5 degrees C but starting out 5 degrees F cooler) would increase the usable lifetime by 10 years.

And if it's not stored in water the degradation is MUCH slower.
... it's unlikely a polygun's frame will still be serviceable at 100.
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I can't find data for dry conditions and temperatures under 130 degrees F, but extrapolating the available data suggests that nylon not stored in water and at temperatures of 95 degrees F or cooler should have a lifetime that far exceeds 100 years. I'm being very conservative here--the actual extrapolation result is well over 300 years but extrapolation shouldn't be expected to provide exact results and I figure that it's only safe to assume that the order of magnitude is accurate.

Of course the gun gets hot with use--that would likely shorten the lifetime somewhat. Also, cleaning with solvents or hot water could also eat into the usable lifespan of the frame. But even factoring that kind of thing in, the worry about the degradation of nylon-based pistol frames from age is massively overblown.
 
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I've seen a lot of rusted out steel guns that are now nothing more than a junky wall hanger( or basement dweller). So I don't know why everyone keeps harping on steel guns lasting forever- they don't. Indeed what makes an antique rolling block so desirable (and rare) is that all the others rusted out.

Glocks will certainly be around in 100 years. But their desireability may be about how we view a JC Higgins shotgun today.
 
I couldn't care less about a 129 year old Colt, I don't expect it would be different for a 129 year old Glock.
 
SteadyD said:
I have no idea how long they'll last, but they likely won't have the appeal of guns currently that old. They are so mass produced in order to meet the demands of a much larger population, with very little distinguishing the different models, that I sincerely doubt they will have collectible value. The guns of yesteryear have both craftsmanship and scarcity in their favor.
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Yet it's funny how even in the Glock community there is a growing trend towards considering the earlier guns better crafted and more desirable due to their use of fewer cast and MIM parts......In a hundred years, guns(like cars) will be made of raw force fields and powered by thought and sunlight- and the post apocalyptic survivors will look upon our "cheap, mass produced " polymer handguns in museums and wonder at their solid durability.
All that said, Ill take blued steel and oiled walnut anyday.
 
Sebastian the Ibis said:
I've seen a lot of rusted out steel guns that are now nothing more than a junky wall hanger( or basement dweller). So I don't know why everyone keeps harping on steel guns lasting forever- they don't.
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With a modicum of care, they do.


22250Rem said:
The way I look at is that if Hickok45 has a 129 yr. old Colt then that Colt has probably led a somewhat easy life and hasn't had a bazillion rounds through it. They made a lot of those back then and where are 90% or whatever of them today? I'm sure lots of them were simply worn out and eventually neglected whereas the survivors were the ones that saw light use and excellent care. My Glock 19 was 4 years old this past February. Its had a little over 1500 rounds through it since it was new. So if it rarely gets fired and gets proper storage it only has 125 years to go to be 129. I can't think of any reason why it wouldn't make it, or am I forgetting something? I can't see polymer degradation as a factor unless it was left in direct sunlight all summer every summer for a decade or so. Metallurgy wise there should be no problem except rust, but all guns are subject to that. So I'm sure it'll outlast my need for it so maybe this is all a moot point. I'd make a large bet that my four year old Glock could survive to be 129 years old but how am I gonna collect it if I win?
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You think all those old Colt's with pitted out barrels, chambers and worn out lockwork got that way from disuse?

Degradation from use or poor storage is one thing and avoidable. Degradation from time is something else entirely and cannot be avoided. A Glock might outlast an all steel revolver if the goal is to survive 100,000rds in 10yrs but if the goal is to survive 10,000rds in 100yrs, the revolver has the advantage. Guns are not typically disposable consumer products. While your local gun shop may have nothing but new polymer junk on hand, firearms that are a hundred or several hundred years old are a very real thing. This early revolver is over 400yrs old and just as functional as it was when it was new.

Revolver%201597.jpg
 
A Glock might outlast an all steel revolver if the goal is to survive 100,000rds in 10yrs but if the goal is to survive 10,000rds in 100yrs, the revolver has the advantage.
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I don't think it's disputed that Glock is far, far more concerned about the first metric of longevity than the second. And when we're talking about something largely designed as a professional-oriented duty pistol as opposed to a luxury good or an heirloom, I see nothing wrong with that. (And I'm saying this as someone who owns an all-steel revolver and no polymer autoloaders).
 
It will be a non-issue to just print new plastic parts for them. Check that. It may be a legal issue depending on the serialized component, but not a technological one.
 
Mitlov said:
I don't think it's disputed that Glock is far, far more concerned about the first metric of longevity than the second.
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Thats pretty much the point. they are disposable and cost less than a good TV/cell phone now-a-days, and will more than likely outlast either.

Neither me nor my children will be around in 129yrs so I have no dog in this fight. Course there is the fact that we should have moved on from cartridges by then. Its really moot.
 
CraigC said:
With a modicum of care, they do.
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If "a modicum of care" were that common we'd all have our ancestors civil war muskets in our safes. "Care" is entirely uncommon over 100+ years. How often do you find 4 generations of gun nuts in a family that all take the time to dote over old guns? Sooner or later someone is going to let the guns rust in attic, or bubba them.
 
Sebastian the Ibis said:
If "a modicum of care" were that common we'd all have our ancestors civil war muskets in our safes. "Care" is entirely uncommon over 100+ years. How often do you find 4 generations of gun nuts in a family that all take the time to dote over old guns? Sooner or later someone is going to let the guns rust in attic, or bubba them.
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all I can say its a good thing Youtube didn't exist 129 years ago... Course I don't think you would find many vids of people torture testing their guns, in that time period, as they were kind of useful for your life. lol.
Then again, think of the millions of guns it will take out of the "future".
 
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