Status Quo of Firearms

It’s a lot easier to get a law passed than to get one rescinded.

Caliber restrictions by the Wise Heads of the Old World.
Italy is the outstanding example, with the 9x21 and .45 HP which shoot just like 9mm P and .45 ACP where "military calibers" are not allowed to civilians. Colt once made 9mm Steyr Commanders for the market.
It is commonly thought that Mexico is the home of the .38 Super because .45 ACP is not allowed. That is out of date, the last time I heard, .380 was the largest auto pistol caliber you could legally buy. I think the same in Brazil.
There is an Indian made Webley in .32, as large as you would be trusted with.

Similarly in rifles; there are ARs and Minis in .222 Remington for repressive jurisdictions. India has a weird 8mm x .303 for the few hunters there.

Virginia Jim said:

It’s a lot easier to get a law passed than to get one rescinded.

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Yes, the sunset clause in AWB 94-04 was most unusual.
And I don't care who you have on the Supreme Court, thrashing a case through the legal system can take years if not decades, leaving your weapons in limbo.

I don't expect any dramatic change in the next 10 years. There may be attempts at restrictive legislation, but the current inventory of guns and magazines (a general oversupply, IMO, as people have been stockpiling for years) is a fact that cannot be ignored. There will be (formal or informal) grandfathering.

hso said:

Also, during the AWB rebuild kits were available for most popular magazines so wear wasn't an issue limiting magazines.

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The "rebuild kits" were grossly abused during AWB94. I was rather surprised that there was not a sting operation to make examples of at least some people who were openly assembling "ammunition feeding devices" out of "spare parts."

If "arms" that don't involve "fire" become available as "commonly used" then I still want the "right" to "bear" them.

wiscoaster said:

If "arms" that don't involve "fire" become available as "commonly used" then I still want the "right" to "bear" them.

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I am on the waiting list for a plasma rifle in the 40 watt range, which could be available in the next 10 years. High output portable power supplies seem to be the last hurdle

hso said:

If someone had been building and selling them in any numbers I would have expected arrests also, but not for individuals who were refurbishing (even those turning one into 4).

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Obviously the Regulatory Mind did not consider the practice of selling full sets of "repair parts" such as I saw at USPSA Regional matches to be worth pursuing.
And it did not consider the practice of "cloning" magazines to be prosecutable. Even though "ran over my six pocket magazine carrier with the lawnmower" was the then equivalent of all those "boating accidents" that show up when central registration is mentioned.

I’ve already made my decision, in a limited capacity world I choose the .40S&W over any wheel gun.

The only exception would be something more than .357mag, my choice in revolver is .45C that’ll handle the non SAAMI hot loads.

What I get from this thread is that ‘Molon Labe’ and ‘from my cold, dead hands’ were nothing more than catchy slogans vs. a commitment to draw a line in the sand regardless of the consequences.

Frulk said:

What I get from this thread is that ‘Molon Labe’ and ‘from my cold, dead hands’ were nothing more than catchy slogans vs. a commitment to draw a line in the sand regardless of the consequences.

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So, what's the "line in sand" look like to you?

I don't know. I think the cultural changes you're looking at are not new and happened before. People were becoming weenies who all live cushy lives in cities, and the government saw this as a problem, if the the population became unable physically and had no outdoor skills. Think that was the era when the boy scouts and 4H, and things like that were started, so - what you are seeing is nothing new IMHO - it is cyclical.

If crime goes rapant, and people have to fend for themselves a little more in the near future, if there is a war or food rationing, the national sentiment toward self defense may take a huge swing. Heck, it may have already and you just aren't up to speed on it - didn't like several million new gun owners make purchases and get training, and buy a lot of ammo in the recent pandemic scare?

Frulk said:

What I get from this thread is that ‘Molon Labe’ and ‘from my cold, dead hands’ were nothing more than catchy slogans vs. a commitment to draw a line in the sand regardless of the consequences.

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There are confrontational (and stupid) ways of defying restrictions, and then there are low-key (and clever) ways of defying restrictions. Magazine rebuild kits are examples of the latter. Europeans are masters of the second kind of defiance; Americans, not so much. Americans have been spoiled by a tradition of lax gun laws, and at the same time have been conditioned to be law-abiding. This combination means that when their rights are finally violated, they are apt to explode rather than quietly sidestepping the violation.

Note to self: Buy lever-action centerfire rifle. I think I've got the rest of the bases covered.

In answer to the OP, there will probably little change in a decade in firearms platforms. Ten years is a short period of time. 2010 seems like yesterday to me.

In 100 years, I predict guns will have continued it's evolution of semi-auto rifles and handguns with improvements in ergonomics and optics. Revolvers will have a resurgence with improved and more economical manufacturing, with iconic revolvers continuing to make appearances in nostalgic movies and video games.

This prediction doesn't take politics into account.

AlexanderA said:

There are confrontational (and stupid) ways of defying restrictions, and then there are low-key (and clever) ways of defying restrictions. Magazine rebuild kits are examples of the latter. Europeans are masters of the second kind of defiance; Americans, not so much. Americans have been spoiled by a tradition of lax gun laws, and at the same time have been conditioned to be law-abiding. This combination means that when their rights are finally violated, they are apt to explode rather than quietly sidestepping the violation.

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Brilliant observation and fully agreed. But with one additional observation: our rights have been steadily encroached upon for years with the threat of more encroachments to come. At what point does "finally violated" kick in with the American psyche?

IMO, wrt 2A, the NFA was an infringement, and we swallowed that. The first AWB was an infringement, and we swallowed that. Individual states firearm and magazine restrictions are infringements, and we're swallowing that. Onerous CCW permit requirements and failure to issue are infringements, and we're swallowing that. I don't know; how far can the infringements go before we feel violated enough to get nasty about it?

The future status quo of firearms depends on our reaction to each little attempt to nick into our freedom and our rights. We've been relatively acquiesent in the past; if we are the same going forward then the future status doesn't look so hot.

AlexanderA said:

There are confrontational (and stupid) ways of defying restrictions, and then there are low-key (and clever) ways of defying restrictions. Magazine rebuild kits are examples of the latter. Europeans are masters of the second kind of defiance; Americans, not so much. Americans have been spoiled by a tradition of lax gun laws, and at the same time have been conditioned to be law-abiding.

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Not going along with that thinking at all. Europeans tolerate far more infringements on their rights than Americans and typically put up with far more B.S. from their governments than most Americans would be willing to ...

Old Dog said:

Europeans tolerate far more infringements on their rights than Americans and typically put up with far more B.S. from their governments than most Americans would be willing to ...

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First of all, recognize that there's a split in Europe, with the north and west being far more compliant than the south and east. (That's the result of the histories of those regions.)

Secondly, and most importantly, non-compliance with gun laws in Europe runs below the surface. I've written before about the situation in Greece (with which I'm most familiar). Greece has fairly draconian gun laws, but they're widely ignored. For example, the country is awash with Kalashnikovs (at least 250,000, by police estimates), which of course are totally illegal.

Doing a quick back-of-the-envelope calculation, that would be the per-population equivalent in the U.S. of 7.5 million fully-automatic AK-47's floating around the country.

AlexanderA said:

There are confrontational (and stupid) ways of defying restrictions, and then there are low-key (and clever) ways of defying restrictions. Magazine rebuild kits are examples of the latter. Europeans are masters of the second kind of defiance; Americans, not so much. Americans have been spoiled by a tradition of lax gun laws, and at the same time have been conditioned to be law-abiding. This combination means that when their rights are finally violated, they are apt to explode rather than quietly sidestepping the violation.

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Odd that you think we have lax gun laws when we are guaranteed the right to keep and bear arms by the 2nd amendment. Any and all gun laws in the US are draconian and unconstitutional (IMO) not lax.

I am hearing too many defeatists here.
Not a good sign.

Mr. Mosin said:

And in six months to a year, how many of those purchases will be lining pawn shop displays for $150 more than the original price and only one mag through em ?

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maybe a bunch, maybe none - demand may be even higher, nobody can really predict the future. just saying, I think support for any type of gun control legistlation will be low when a very large portion of the population is arming itself out of fear for their lives. which is now.