While violent crime has gone up above the mid 20-teens, firearms crimes fell

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hso

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While firearm sales set records in 2019, 2020, & 2021, the use of firearms in violent crime fell. Think about that. The rate of firearms used in violent crimes FELL while firearms ownership increased.

https://bjs.ojp.gov/sites/g/files/xyckuh236/files/media/document/cv20.pdf
Criminal Victimization, 2020 -
U.S. Department of Justice
Office of Justice Programs
Bureau of Justice Statistics
Screen-Shot-2022-01-14-at-Friday-January-14-9.51-AM.png
 
That's easy to explain. The increase in law-abiding armed citizens had a deterrent effect on the violent criminals. "An armed society is a polite society."

You don't think the lockdowns had anything to do with it? Fewer people out and about leading to fewer run-ins between people? Government checks for everyone, and more for those who stayed home not working?
 
I absolutely believe that there is a correlation between the increased number of gun owners and the reduction in violent crime. It has been almost impossible to be ignorant of the fact that over the last two years the number of first time gun owners has grown substantially. While street hoods and home invaders are evil they are still savvy. Street people are almost always savvy. They know they are now at greater risk. I also think good-guy-with-gun stories are making the news (locally) mote and more. The punks get the news in addition to the street talk. So I think they are aware that the face higher risk. I think the more goood-guy stories that get coverage the less street crime we will see.
 
You don't think the lockdowns had anything to do with it? Fewer people out and about leading to fewer run-ins between people? Government checks for everyone, and more for those who stayed home not working?

This is likely the most significant driver. The way the table is presented makes it a bit hard to get at the key numbers.

Let us take the first two rows, and calculate the percentage of violent victimization involving a firearm.
2019-8.29%
2020-7.69%
And from this we can calculate the reduction in firearm involved violent victimization rate as (7.69-8.29)/8.29 which gives a reduction of 7.24% in relative terms.
So while that is a reduction, without having more years of data it is hard to say how significant it is, I am sure there is some year to year variation.
The third row "Rate of firearm victimization" is misleading, as it is largely driven by the decline in overall victimization, which fell by 21.59% (derived from row 1).
So the proper conclusion is overall victimization fell, and thus firearm victimization fell as well since that is a subset of overall victimization.

As to the causal factors at play, the pandemic was likely the most significant one. Its a well observed phenomenon that crime rates change with climate because as you have warmer climates people spend more time outdoors, etc. The pandemic might be expected to have the opposite effect. People being forced to stay away from each other, or choosing to of their own volition, should reduce the total amount of interaction and thus the opportunity for crime.
Other pandemic factors at play may have been the stimulus payments, since those might temporarily remove some of the economic incentives for crime.

I absolutely believe that there is a correlation between the increased number of gun owners and the reduction in violent crime. It has been almost impossible to be ignorant of the fact that over the last two years the number of first time gun owners has grown substantially. While street hoods and home invaders are evil they are still savvy. Street people are almost always savvy. They know they are now at greater risk. I also think good-guy-with-gun stories are making the news (locally) mote and more. The punks get the news in addition to the street talk. So I think they are aware that the face higher risk. I think the more goood-guy stories that get coverage the less street crime we will see.

In this case I rather doubt the increase in firearms ownership had anything to do with the reduction in crime. Crime tends to be relatively concentrated in urban areas, many of which are not areas that law abiding citizens are allowed to keep and bear arms. And while the wave of new gun owners was a diverse group, I have the feeling that the distribution is skewed towards people who were unlikely to deter any crime by means of their firearm (people who bought it and put it in a drawer, people without carry licenses, people living in suburban and rural areas that had little crime to start with, etc.)
Also generally speaking, I would not expect the decline in rate to occur the same year as the acquisitions, the effect is probabally more subtle and delayed than that.

Nevertheless, all of this has given me some ideas about data I would like to pull and numbers I would like to crunch when I have some time.
 
2020: The year people were paid to stay home, and bought a lot of guns and ammo.

Criminals got paid to not commit crimes, and also didn't want to because they thought their would-be-victims were all packing new heat?
 
And while the wave of new gun owners was a diverse group, I have the feeling that the distribution is skewed towards people who were unlikely to deter any crime by means of their firearm (people who bought it and put it in a drawer, people without carry licenses, people living in suburban and rural areas that had little crime to start with, etc.)

While I agree with most of what you said I have to challenge you a bit on this part. I live in one of those urban setting that heavily restricts 2a rights (Washington DC :barf:) and the biggest change I noticed at my LGS and the DC firearms registration office during the pandemic was a shift from a mostly caucasian men made up mostly of sport shooters and hunters to mostly minorities from rough neighborhoods buying glock 17s and 19s for self defense.

When I was waiting for some paperwork at MPD for a new pew pew I got early on in covid I got to chatting to the young lady next to me who told me she was there to get her CCW. I heard similar stories from people I met at my LGS who were there to buy their first gun. Self defense, glock 17/19, concealed carry.

so while it think there was definitely a mixed bag, I do think there was a massive change in attitude in urban areas among people in neighborhoods affected by the riots, about needing to take more responsibility for their own safety.
 
The increase in law-abiding armed citizens had a deterrent effect on the violent criminals. "An armed society is a polite society."

While we'd love to think that, it's a myth that's been debunked over and over. When we lean on that idea and point to states with low violent crime rates and high firearms ownership it is too easily countered by pointing to those cities/states with both high firearms ownership and high violent crime rates. The thing the data shows us is that there is no correlation between firearms ownership an violent crime and therefore no causal relationship between violent crime and firearms (in spite of what the Antis want to claim).
 
While we'd love to think that, it's a myth that's been debunked over and over. When we lean on that idea and point to states with low violent crime rates and high firearms ownership it is too easily countered by pointing to those cities/states with both high firearms ownership and high violent crime rates. The thing the data shows us is that there is no correlation between firearms ownership an violent crime and therefore no causal relationship between violent crime and firearms (in spite of what the Antis want to claim).

I am not quite ready to declare it a "myth" or agree that it has been debunked. There have been some persuasive arguments made for a causal relationship, and the analysis needed to "debunk" it is both complex and not generally carried out. The fact that the academic apparatus is largely anti-firearm on ideological grounds also makes it difficult to take many of the claims about the relationship that have been made at face value.
However I cannot see it as a meaningful driver for this particular phenomenon.
 
I dont think there is connection (but at same time i dont have enough data to say there isnt)
There is similiar trend in more countris which suffered from covid. For example here in Czech we also see decrese in crime and there is probably much less new gun owners since covid restriction also affected exams which are required to get licence + slower administration
Overal "gun saturation" in population is too low to really affect crime
Cant really count gun violence, since tehre was just two cases (1x home defence, 1x accident)
 
While firearm sales set records in 2019, 2020, & 2021, the use of firearms in violent crime fell. Think about that.
Well, I am thinking about that. It's hard to know what to believe.

Firearm sales have undeniably been going up in 2019 - 2021. Yet the other side of the equation, the chart of "firearm violence," ends at 2020. That was an atypical year because it was the peak of covid lockdowns. We can't perceive a trend until we have the 2021 statistics. Anecdotally, there's been a spike in "gun violence" recently as the covid restrictions have eased.

The other caveat is that these are national statistics. Gun restrictions, gun sales, and "gun violence" are not uniform throughout the country. You'd have to look at these on a state-by-state basis to draw any valid conclusions.
 
The problem with statistics is that someone who has an agenda they wish to push can twist the stats to back up their agenda. Any common sense person knows that gun violence is almost universally committed by those illegally owning guns. So what does the fact that more Americans than ever legally bought and now own guns tell us? Just that. And I believe that is a good thing.
 
A similar trend was reported coming out of the "gritty eighties." As the 1990s came and went, Port Arthur in Australia happened. The Aussie government immediately clamped down (further) on gun ownership, and later reported that violent crime was trending downward.

What was often not reported was that crime in both the USA and Australia had already been trending downward prior to Port Arthur, but firearms-ownership in the US was climbing (somewhat rapidly, in fact.) On top of that, the downward trend in violent crime in the US actually sped up a bit, while it maintained a slower pace over there.

This pretty much goes against the argument that the Aussie ban proves that reducing or eliminating private gun ownership directly reduces overall violent crime, or that the rise in gun ownership would increase it.
 
You don't think the lockdowns had anything to do with it? Fewer people out and about leading to fewer run-ins between people? Government checks for everyone, and more for those who stayed home not working?

No. We recently moved from the Chicago area to SE Wisconsin. The Chicago area has some of the most restrictive lock downs in the country however crime has spiked. The same has occurred in NYC and many cities in California, where lock downs are also restrictive.
 
Be aware that murder is NOT included in that report or that chart (page 6 first bullet point).

The UCR includes murder, nonnegligent manslaughter,
and commercial crimes (including burglary of
commercial establishments), while the NCVS excludes
those crime types.

UCR is the FBI's Uniform Crime Report
NCVS is this, the DOJ's victimization report
 
Well, I am thinking about that. It's hard to know what to believe.

Firearm sales have undeniably been going up in 2019 - 2021. Yet the other side of the equation, the chart of "firearm violence," ends at 2020. That was an atypical year because it was the peak of covid lockdowns. We can't perceive a trend until we have the 2021 statistics. Anecdotally, there's been a spike in "gun violence" recently as the covid restrictions have eased.

The other caveat is that these are national statistics. Gun restrictions, gun sales, and "gun violence" are not uniform throughout the country. You'd have to look at these on a state-by-state basis to draw any valid conclusions.

As far as the national statistics go, you can actually get pretty far, as I have above, with just the national statistics in terms of debunking the "firearm victimization fell" aspect of this data. Having state level data is very unlikely to change that portion of the conclusion.
However, for other analysis state level data is absolutely required, and to be honest even state level data does not really solve the problem as states are relatively arbitrary jurisdictional boundaries that vary widely in their size, composition, and geography.
When I get some time I am going to crunch a few numbers at the state level though and see what I can dig up on these last few years.
 
If the decrease was a direct result of lockdowns + payments, as seems likely, there will probably be a “dramatic spike in gun violence” in 2021-2022, which of course will require “decisive action to curb the epidemic.”
 
Mosin77 writes:

If the decrease was a direct result of lockdowns + payments, as seems likely, there will probably be a “dramatic spike in gun violence” in 2021-2022, which of course will require “decisive action to curb the epidemic.”

..starting with paying known offenders to refrain from committing crimes. Yes, it's really a thing in some locations. :scrutiny:
 
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