Why has everyone assumed China will become powerful?

Yeah, right ...

Ultimately, if you don't grow it, dig it, cut it, or catch it then it doesn't matter.

Try eating a digital hamburger for lunch, or using a database to keep the rain off while you sleep

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Do you honestly think America would be a stronger place if we reverted back to the days when everyone had to plow their 20 acres with a mule, and build their own houses out timber they cut themselves?

The intelligence revolution has made your diggers and growers nearly obsolete. With the advantage of modern technology and science, a single educated farmer using modern advanced techniques can produce more food than 100 of your diggers and growers. That frees up the other 99 of 'em to persue other ways to make our lives better. Like curing diseases. Or writing the internet database software that makes THR possible. Or designing and building high-tech military tools like stealth bombers that keep us from being invaded by land-hungry nations like China.

Sure, we could survive as a nation with nothing but homesteading farmers. We'd lose 80% of our population in the process, and daily life for that lucky 20% would become a dreary struggle for survival. But we could do it, if we really wanted to. We'd start to look a lot like India and China did (back before they decided they wanted to look like modern America).

Is that really the direction we wanna go as a nation? I certainly hope not. I like living in the most advanced and prosperous nation the world has ever known...

95% of the Chinese population lives in poverty ignorance and squalor to this day.

As far as China promoting traditional family values where the State does not indoctrinate the children and their parents care for and educate them......

Really, you know nothing about China Do ya??????

China's government is booming, along with a chosen few "civilians", who are just party to the government anyway. "The people" are not on an upward trajectory. Go, go, go as they may China's level's of consumption, and it's government will hold them back.

I mean, hey, a super power is supposed to attract immigrants, support business, and keep it's own free citizens right? If their military and police took a vacation on the same day, that country would empty out faster than my stomach after Taco Bell

Nixon's opening up relations with China contributed greatly to the next 40 years of change. Modern China is nothing at all like the China of Mao.

Energy? Yeah, they depend on fossil fuel right now; they import as much oil as does Japan. But, they're underway to build 35 pebble-bed nukes for electric energy. I doubt they'll quit building as their economy grows.

They are graduating a half-million engineers a year from their universities. India is in the same pattern.

Look: Post WW II, Japan gained everything by trade that she'd tried to gain militarily. The Chinese aren't stupid; they can learn from observing other people's mistakes--and they're doing just that.

The rest of the world caught up with us as to heavy industry, with lower costs. So, in order for us to maintain a healthy economy, we must look to other ideas. We lead the world in plastics and in computer science, right now. We are still the top single exporter to other countries, but it's no longer the same old stuff. We're hurting ourselves with the amount of welfare-state thinking and with our consumeritis in lieu of saving. That's more likely to hurt us than foreign competition--along with our lessening of the quality of the lower echelons of our educational system.

One of the few places I ever agreed with Bill Clinton was with his commentary about the future workforce needing to be better educated. Unfortunately, we're more into self-delusion than into meaningful action.

Art

OUr educational system is a welfare system for educators and administrators, its charter to produce cogs and consumers. Mediocrity is the unspoken goal, not excellence. If we really wanted excellence we would insist on discipline and high standards and not worry so much about "socialization" (feel-good, self-esteem). Self-esteem arises from achievement; it's not a birthright. Fortunately, we still have great universities and graduate schools, whose science and engineering departments are increasingly manned by foreign students, researchers, scientists. I think we need to look very hard at the values that inhere in our school system and who is responsible for those values.

“We're not discussing the price of beef...” Benjamin Netanyahu

Here's a little more info for anyone that thinks of China isn't intent
on being a superpower.


http://www.washtimes.com/national/20050609-120336-4092r.htm

06/09/2005 Gertz article on how 'suprised' the intel community is about China's military buildup.

"A highly classified intelligence report produced for the new director of national intelligence concludes that U.S. spy agencies failed to recognize several key military developments in China in the past decade, The Washington Times has learned. "

"Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld said in Singapore over the weekend that China has hidden its defense spending and is expanding its missile forces despite facing no threats. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice also expressed worries this week about China's expanding military capabilities.
Among the failures highlighted in the study are:

•China's development of a new long-range cruise missile.
•The deployment of a new warship equipped with a stolen Chinese version of the U.S. Aegis battle management technology.
•Deployment of a new attack submarine known as the Yuan class that was missed by U.S. intelligence until photos of the submarine appeared on the Internet.
•Development of precision-guided munitions, including new air-to-ground missiles and new, more accurate warheads.
•China's development of surface-to-surface missiles for targeting U.S. aircraft carrier battle groups.
•The importation of advanced weaponry, including Russian submarines, warships and fighter-bombers.

According to officials familiar with the intelligence report, the word "surprise" is used more than a dozen times to describe U.S. failures to anticipate or discover Chinese arms development."

China is not a capitalist society. It most approximates a fascist government than a communist.

A whiff of capitalism is a bad thang for a herd of peasants to get.

China is walking a thin line. It is constantly balanced between personal freedom inherent in capitalism and authoritarianism.

The west (re: USofA) has willingly capitalized a country with plentiful, cheap labor; no legacy costs; no environmental costs; no litigation threat and costs. In other words the USofA has ceded the advantage by deliberate policy to the country with absolute competitive advantage. There will be a terrible price to be paid by the current generation and future generations.

While China is collecting currency like mad and reinvesting it in the US, for the time being, there exists not one single solitary bank in China that is solvent as US banks define solvent. We look at the US as the probable source of the next world economic hiccup. We should also take a hard look at China's banking world because it is propped up with toothpicks.

China doesn't need to challenge the US militarily because we are being conquered my means other than war. Thank you to those in the US ruling class.

but the questions are whether they can maintain control over their massive population long enough to do so.

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This is, I believe, a key point, and one often overlooked.

The Chinese government has no apparent strategy to deal with the huge masses of their population who still live in abject poverty in their vast rural areas. Some of the wealth is trickling down, but not much.

The ruling class of this fascist nation (well, it looks like fascism to me) is grinding the lower classes into the dirt. They take their homes from them and do not give them even a token compensation (sort of like our own Supreme Court envisions for the peons of our nation!). There have already been small scale battles sparked by this type of action -- something we don't usually get to see.

I just think that China represents an enormous contradiction in terms -- a capitalist economy with almost no political freedom or civil rights.

I am no expert, but I think that this contradiction will eventually cause the current Chinese nation to disintegrate in a paroxysm of civil war. Remember, China has already had one civil war in the past 100 years.

I just hope we can stay out of the way when it hits the fan!

I live Modelski's Model to explain the life and death of world powers. The model is a cycle of 100 years in which a particular world leader grows in power, becomes the world leader, and declines. The first 25 year period is spent growing power. Whether this is through economics, military, or whatever is not relevant to the model. The next 25 year period, the world power to be becomes increasingly involved in the current day world's geopolitics. At the peak, there is often a large war in which the world power enters at an opportune time and swings the balance to their side, placing them in a position to dictate how the world is run. The next 25 year period is when they are the big kid on the block. Towards the end of this period, they start to become enbroiled in minor conflicts all over the place. They become the police of the world, sapping their power and influence. The last 25 year period is the decline from world power. Often we see other nations challenge the declining world power's authority.

There is nothing that stops a world power from going another cycle as the world leader, however it's only happened once. World powers that have been clearly identified are Netherlands, Spain, Britain, Britain again, and the US. You could probably apply this to Rome, Athens, and other ancient cultures, however the time frame would be longer simply because it took longer to do everything then.

If you apply this to the US, there are clear signs we are somewhere in the last 25 year period. I think GW's fumbling assured that we are not going to have another go as the world leader, but maybe we'll pull a real leader with some common sense from the pile of possibles next time. He is a president at what is a very critical time, and I just don't see us going back up the hill.

As far as China goes, they are certainly on the upswing. They are clearly the favorite to become the next world leader as far as I'm concerned. There's no reason to think they won't get there. The only other real possibility at this point is some European countries forming a union or the US getting its act together.

LeoC said:

The internet censors know that THR has a pretty much nonexistent effect on their country, so couldn't care less what anybody here says good or bad. Now when a massive infoengine like Google steps out of line... that's where the shutdowns start

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I heard recently that Google has joined MSN and Yahoo in censoring their site in China. The whole thing seems silly to me. I mean, I could take anything off Google and post it here, or anywhere else. What good is it shutting off the floodgates, if there are a billion spigots available? Doesn't seem like they could accomplish what they intend, if they even know what that is. Good thing, too!

The comparisons with modern Japan and with fascist regimes of the past are interesting, but there's a difference. Where are the Chinese tourists? Shouldn't there be swarms of them?

I think it has already happened.

Why has everyone assumed China will become powerful?

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They already ARE...


...and they won't care if the USA falls due to terrorism, illegal alien infestation, incompetent government, or general public apathy.....

...as long as China is on top when it's over.

We're our own worst enemies in this. And China knows it...

There's no doubt that the Chinese government allows little personal freedom as we know it. However, on a comparative basis, it's a lot more free than back in the 1950s through the 1970s. There are serious internal problems; the ratio of younger males to younger females is one of them.

Personal monies? China is the world's largest market for Gucci, Rolex and Mercedes.

From what I've read, here there and yonder, about half of China's population is seeing a brighter future. The rulers (apparently) are not all that concerned about the other half, so long as there isn't active revolt. I imagine their long-term style of planning/thinking has them figuring that eventally the lot of the lower strata will improve, but that's not a governmental priority. Cold-blooded, obviously, but the individual life has never been that important in that country--even before Mao.

A lot of the "why" of their actions are understandable, even without the issue of equality with our Navy. Their lifeblood comes via tanker from the Persian Gulf. Just look at a map of sea lanes, down around Indonesia. A blue-water navy allows extension of force all along their figurative aorta. Plus, they're looking for control around Taiwan...

The world is changing. Nowhere is it written that the changes will be pleasing to us. We have no inherent right to be Top Dog. Like anything else, we have to earn that right.

Art

Do you honestly think America would be a stronger place if we reverted back to the days when everyone had to plow their 20 acres with a mule, and build their own houses out timber they cut themselves?

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I never said or hinted anything of the kind. But ultimately all of the information specialists, massage therapists, and psychological counselors (etc.....) ride on the back of those who farm/ranch, mine/drill, log, and fish - whether those natural resources (and the workers) are domestic or imported.

You owe your very survival to the guy driving an 8-wheel 250 horsepower to plant wheat, the guy operating the massive shovel in an open pit coal mine, or the guy running a feller buncher and grapple skidder in the woods. Plus those who dig the iron ore, and drill and pump the oil to run all that stuff.

I've done some of those things, and I've also written software for jet engines - but I never forget where food comes from (and it ain't the grocery story, contrary to common misconception)

Now, we may think that we (Americans) are smarter than everybody else and we can just shuffle papers and arrange bits and bytes, while the rest of the world grows, digs, cuts, and catches for us. More efficient division of labor and all that ....

But if we are concerned about importing so much oil right now, how much more concerned are we going to be about importing 80% of our food ?

China will come as far as our own costermongers in business want to take them. When I read that Microsoft, Yahoo, Cisco, et al. are complicit in providing China with the means to suppress political dissent, I want to reach for my revolver (figuratively, of course).

China follows the fascist-capitalist model, not the free market model. I don't see them giving away their production but I do see them grabbing what we give them, for free, with both hands. As usual we have too many people thinking short-term and short-straw.

There is little doubt that China has become powerful and is a superpower (in some ways). Total miltary personnel dwarf that of the US. They are the largest market for many luxury item producers because Chinese people are notoriously greedy. People there don't buy for quality, they buy to impress others. If you offered a Ulysses Nardin or a Rolex to a Chinese person, they will take the Rolex (because 98% have never heard of the rather more exclusive, much higher quality and much more expensive Ulysses Nardin brand). Combine the aggressive economic expansion that the Chinese gov't is pursuing, the vast disparity between rich and poor, the intense corruption at nearly all levels of government, you have the same ingredients that led to the overthrow of the Nationalist government in China. China is currently on a path towards civil war, unless they take great pains to bring the poor and middle class closer to the rich.

They are currently living through the same growing pains the US did during the Industrial Revolution, but with modern equipment and processes.

I'd also like to mention when people complain about the greed of companies trying to open up markets like China. Who is ultimately responsible? I say we are; every person who has stock of any sort is responsible, because in the drive to keep shareholders happy, companies will do whatever they can to turn a profit, nationalism be damned. The current politicians are bad, but they are much better than the Democrats were. During Clinton's tenure, he switched the responsiblity for reviews of export security from the State dept to the Commerce Dept! Commerce approved everything including missile technology, GPS, Satellite info, etc because they are not security minded. Pres. Bush restored the original State dept responsibility, but has made a few errors of his own (like that ports debacle).

This is just in China's GDP is 10.2% this quarter. That is amazing. Still they are half of the market we are......for now.

I think we need to concern ourselves with making us stronger, not keeping others weaker. We need to stop policing the world and providing free security to competitors. We need to protect our intellectual property by sanctions against countries that refuse to enforce IP laws. We have to educate and encourage our population, especially the young, to be more productive and less spendy. We need to simplify out tax code, close loopholes, decrease litigation, and steer away from socialism and statism. We need to invest heavily in advanced technologies, infrastructure, and higher education in technical specialties, rather than stockpile ultraexpensive weapons we can no longer afford. We need to get rid of blanket entitlement programs on every level, while we secure our borders and stop importing slave labor and poverty.

If we do all of the above, China would be of no consequence.

As far as China goes, others already pointed out the huge rural population that is being brutalized by their own government. What people look at instead is a few large jewels in the crown where capitalism is moving in very fast. It must be appreciated that the same structure existed in the first half of the 20th century - city bourgeoisie vs rural peasantry. Mao won, Chiang-kai-Shek lost. Unless modern China drastically decreases their population and somehow redefine the balance between city and rural percentages, they are in for a world of hurt.

Hu's on first?

Our President assumes the best, believes, hopes, remonstrates, petitions. China's goes on doing exactly what he wants.

Which one is stronger?

We want enforcement of intellectual property rights? We want currency reform? Why don't we demand it instead of asking, hoping, and waiting by the telephone? We're afraid the international banking system will collapse? Who exactly is afraid of that, anyway? The arbitrageurs who make billions on a trade? The soccer moms who patrol our shopping malls on a daily basis making sure their family has a Perfect LIfe?

Bush would like China to care more about "Darfur." China is never going to care about what is going on in Darfir because a "Darfur conscience" is the product of a completely different history, of our legacy from Christianity and the Enlightenment.

Yet we go on acting as if the Chinese are just like ourselves.

All I see is more problems ahead. And we ourselves are creating them.

Personal monies? China is the world's largest market for Gucci, Rolex and Mercedes.

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Art this is from Damlier Chrysler's website:

Mercedes-Benz posts record sales in the U.S. and Asia
With record sales in December (116,100 units; up ten percent) worldwide deliveries of Mercedes-Benz passenger cars increased in 2005 by 1.6 percent to 1,077,600 units (2004: 060,900 units). In the U.S., the brand with the star sold 224,400 passenger cars and recorded its twelfth consecutive annual sales increase in that market. In the Asia-Pacific region, DaimlerChrysler delivered 97,200 Mercedes-Benz passenger cars, ten percent more than in 2004. The biggest increases in Asia were achieved in the Chinese growth market including Hong Kong (15,800 units, up 38 percent) and in Japan (43,000 units, up 11 percent). With 661,500 units, sales in Western Europe almost reached last years result (2004: 666,900 units). In the European core markets UK, Italy, France and Spain Mercedes-Benz outperformed the market as a whole. In Germany, Mercedes Benz delivered 319,900 passenger cars to customers (2004: 338,100), thus maintaining its position as the leading premium brand in that country.

Its a growth market but hardly anywhere near the biggest, I didnt check on the rolex's or Guccis though.

China is competing for natural resources big time, the cost of 2500 .45acp LSWC is up 10% over last year for me, my caster Penn Bullets told me that the chinese are driving up the price of lead, tin, and antimony, or at least thats what his suppliers tell him.....

More troublesome is their incresing expenditures on their military, and the effect of their growing might on their neighbors. All of that being financed by the Crapolla we buy at walmart, and US companies relying on them for cheap production. A bigger shock awaits US automakers(if there is really such a thing anymore) when they import their $9,000 passenger car next year (maybe).

If we permit China to shred the last of our auto industry with low-ball automobiles we deserve everything we get. They steal our software and entertainment products and we reward them by giving them free access to the biggest consumer market in creation. As mad Emperor Commodus said in The Fall of the Roman Empire, "If you listen very, very carefully, you can hear the gods laughing."

Of course I failed to consider that our new group of Immigrants on the Path to Citizenship will need cheap Chinese cars to get to work. I wonder if those new cheap Chinese cars will meet our emissions standards or whether we'll give them a waiver along with the Mexican trucks they'll be driving alongside.

by leo C

"I find that China is still free of a lot of the government and popularly-mandated fluff that, IMHO, pulls down the USA. There is no such thing as "PC" (politically correct) here. There are no labor unions. There is no "entitlement" mentality, surprising as it may be for a supposedly communist country. People here in the big city work their hinds off to make their own lives better and know that they can get fired if they mess up, and will accept it and look for work again instead of taking their former employers to court. Parents take all the responsibility for their kids and wouldn't dare trust somebody else (like a schoolteacher) to teach them morality. They can and do discipline their children without fear that some self-rightgeous meddler will call Child Services. Traditional family values still dominate here.

China's a good place for businesses to grow. Growing businesses means growing economic strength. Growing economic strength = greater international influence and power. China has the manpower, the resources, and the will to become the world's top economic superpower... but the questions are whether they can maintain control over their massive population long enough to do so."

leo, i am stuck in luoyang again. can i come up and take you to the mongolian embassy for some slinky?

i have to agree with your assesment on the larger points.

"I find that China is still free of a lot of the government and popularly-mandated fluff that, IMHO, pulls down the USA. There is no such thing as "PC" (politically correct) here. There are no labor unions. There is no "entitlement" mentality, surprising as it may be for a supposedly communist country. People here in the big city work their hinds off to make their own lives better and know that they can get fired if they mess up, and will accept it and look for work again instead of taking their former employers to court. Parents take all the responsibility for their kids and wouldn't dare trust somebody else (like a schoolteacher) to teach them morality. They can and do discipline their children without fear that some self-rightgeous meddler will call Child Services. Traditional family values still dominate here.

China's a good place for businesses to grow. Growing businesses means growing economic strength. Growing economic strength = greater international influence and power. China has the manpower, the resources, and the will to become the world's top economic superpower... but the questions are whether they can maintain control over their massive population long enough to do so."

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So China's gone from a Worker's Paradise to an Employer's Paradise?

Fascinating.

I'll always remember a line from the Daily Show a couple of years ago, a "news" story about China.

John said "The President said that relations with China will remain unchanged." He then added, "in other words we'll continue to kiss their butt and they'll continue to do whatever they want."

I thought that summed it up pretty well.