NRA Convention Was Missing One Thing

Lines are horrible, lots of folks not willing to wait hour or so to register to get in. bunch of bunk. If you belong they want to upgrade you as you register, kinda a bummer. I left, spent an hour waiting and decided to head out, friends stayed, it was another hour before they got in.
oh well. my loss.
rj

Or better yet, maybe they didn't want to listen to the customers who are pissed they haven't tooled up their shops for an increased damand.

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Let's see, there has been an increase in sales of guns for the past several months, with people who had never owned firearms buying a real good part of them. If I go buy a new gun (and I'd bet most here do the same as well) I buy some ammo for it when I take it out of the store.

Ammo manufacturers purchase raw materials for their output well in advance, as most any industry does. China has been buying lots of any metal they can buy in bulk, so brass, lead and most any metal is harder to get. But, I'm sure you knew the demand for ammo we'd have today in 2007-early 2008 didn't you. Since they're doing such a poor job anticipating demand in 2009 way back then, why didn't you let them know they'd need a lot more brass and lead back in 2007?

One thing I learned a long time ago is, "Monday Morning Quarterbacking" is real easy. Given the worldwide demand for metals, expect higher prices if and when ammo supply meets demand. But trashing the industry because they got caught in, to use a phrase, a "Perfect Storm" isn't helping anyone.

I suspect that many of these manufacturers use "lean manufacturing" principles and use "just in time" production such that whatever they make is immediately shipped and not sitting in a warehouse. It is hard to increase production from such a setup in a short time frame.

Or better yet, maybe they didn't want to listen to the customers who are pissed they haven't tooled up their shops for an increased damand.

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You need to research history on companies that have "Tooled up" to keep up with demands, and to see the demand go by by.

Maybe the US Government will bail them out to!

Think first before...........

PS: I have plenty of toilet paper.

maybe they didn't want to listen to the customers who are pissed they haven't tooled up their shops for an increased damand.

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Thats what I long for everyday is someone to walk into my business who is wet behind the ears telling me that I'm running my company wrong. Yep, long for it.

If you belong they want to upgrade you as you register, kinda a bummer

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No thankyou works pretty good.

Pre register to volunteer next time. They'll send you a pass to get you past the lines. All it takes is some of your time to help a good cause out.

This situation is different than any in history. The unpresidented demand has resulted in the need to tool up period. There is no avoiding it. It's not going away.

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The buying frenzy will eventually reach a saturation point...In fact I think that point is very close. Some of the local guys have seen sales taper down a bit on firearms. I've heard the same from dealers elsewhere.

For the most part I think the Ammo insanity will end as soon as folks start realizing they are going to put themselves into debt building up that ammo stockpile.

The manufacturers probably do need to tool up increased capacity on some calibers like .380 which was not something regularly shot by most folks until the rise of CCW over the last couple years

The ammo shortage will end when idiots stop paying three times the normal price .

maybe the ammo makers were all hard at work!

Customer is always right?

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Not hardly.

This situation is different than any in history. The unpresidented demand has resulted in the need to tool up period. There is no avoiding it. It's not going away.

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History will tell you the future if you'll listen to it, and the history of the business cycle tells you that all bubbles burst. The market WILL get saturated, and demand will wane. When that happens the price will drop.

Thinking it won't is no different than Barney Frank thinking that housing prices would never drop, or Wall Street thinking the market will never crash again. Both those folks have plenty of egg on their faces now, and more to come most likely.

If you do not learn from history you are doomed to repeat it.

Now, if I could predict when the market saturation point will happen I would live in Vegas and date nothing but show girls (at least if my wife would let me), but trust me IT WILL HAPPEN!

And, when it does companies that are over producing will suffer. Actually since machinery is relatively easy to moth ball it will be the employees who suffer when they are be laid off. And that's the least of it. If these companies take on massive debt it could cause the stock holders, creditors, and other vendors to suffer. But, regardless the guys working the line will get it first and hardest.

So don't be to quick to judge those that make these decisions. Especially if you have never run a business. It isn't easy. You are always walking a tight rope:

sales v expenses v growth rate

And the only balance pole you have is a shadowy look into the future that no one can truly predict. So you give it your best guess, and pray.

And when you screw up it is ZERO fun to have to tell your best employees that they can't feed their families for no better reason than you overstretched yourself. Trust me, been there done that, don't wanna again.

gun and ammo

you do know what happened to the gun makers after WW1 dont you.they all went belly up.and now none of the ammo companies are original.
and ammo companies have large ammo lines that cost.none ar dedicated but must be broke down for each caliber.they make a run for the amount that should take them thru till they can do it again.Its one hell of an operation.and darn costly to set up.

The ammo shortage will end when idiots stop paying three times the normal price .

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Understanding market pressures would tell you that this statement is out of bounds. We pay what the companies have to charge to make a profit.
Prices naturally go up over the years just like most every other item in the economy.

That doesn't mean you have to pay the outrageous prices that I saw at the gun show today in Houston.

A WWB of 100 rounds of .45 was listed for up to $60. I bought the same box at Wall Mart for $29.95 last weekend.

Winchester Ammo was set up near the center, and CorBon/Glaser had a booth, as well. Yes, RCBS, Midway, Hornady, Redding, and a few more reloading supply stores had booths setup, for certain, and I took this opportunity to ask the Midway guy - "Where's the primers?"
"They've been ordered!" was the answer, with hands in the air...

History will tell you the future if you'll listen to it, and the history of the business cycle tells you that all bubbles burst. The market WILL get saturated, and demand will wane. When that happens the price will drop.

Thinking it won't is no different than Barney Frank thinking that housing prices would never drop, or Wall Street thinking the market will never crash again. Both those folks have plenty of egg on their faces now, and more to come most likely.

If you do not learn from history you are doomed to repeat it.

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Exactly right.

Anyone remember the Cigar "boom"? That was crazy. People charging insane prices for cheap cigars when they were the "in thing". Actual cigar lovers suffered because of the increased demand. Sure enough, that bubble eventually burst as well, and prices went back down (though they subsequently went back up in many places because of obscene taxes on tobacco products).

This situation is different than any in history. The unpresidented demand has resulted in the need to tool up period. There is no avoiding it. It's not going away.

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This situation is different than any in history. The unprecedented demand FOR REAL ESTATE has resulted in the need to build more large tracts of McMansions. There is no avoiding it. It's not going away.

Oops, strike one...

This situation is different than any in history. The unprecedented demand FOR CHEAP MONEY has resulted in the need to come up with new innovative financial derivatives to fund it. There is no avoiding it. It's not going away.

Oops, strike two...

This situation is different than any in history. The unprecedented demand FOR INTERNET COMMERCE SITES (remember the internet stock bubble?) has changed the FUNDAMENTAL BUSINESS MODEL and allowed us to fund companies to very high valuations with no dicernable way to create long term value. There is no avoiding it. It's not going away.

Strike three...you're out.

Stephen Ambrose wrote an excellent book about boom and bust business cycles. History shows that companies that immediately build out capacity to respond to consumer demand cycles usually lose...and someone else swoops in to buy the assets at pennies on the dollar. Happened with railroads and telegraph in the 1800's...happens today.

Hmm, may be an ammo company for sale cheap soon???
Hmmm....

Speaking of the NRA.
There was a free registration drive and from a link here, I signed up.

I got some paperwork in the mail along with a survey. GREAT

Guess what?
They wanted me to register (again I guess?) for a FEE of course.

So ahem, if it was FREE to register, why do they now want money to register? (re-register?)

Tricky bait and switch in my book and they just screwed the pooch.

there is always a trade off between efficiency and flexibility.

Because a while ago there was a reasonable market but quite a lot of ammunition manufacturers. This kept prices low. Manufacturers focussed on keeping cost low, establishing a continuous supply line, maintaining an even production rythm and establishing a quality control system.
This is on one end of the Flexibility-Efficiency scale (low flexibility, high efficiency)

A system with high flexibility and low effiency only works in the ammo business if you're running a plant/shop that makes a huge variety of wildcat cartridges and/or custom loadings. Flexibility goes up but prices do too.

Because each ammo manufacturer maintained a pretty rigid supply line, they were caught with their pants down so to speak.
They didn't have a plan to ramp up production quickly. The machinery to produce these kinds and numbers of ammunition aren't engineer to order, but you can't get them at a local shop either. The lead time/build time to expand capacity will be at least several months.

And because they didn't anticipate the "boom" in sales, they are reluctant to chase the curve, because by the time you're new production line is ready, the boom might be over and you have invested a lot of capital (hard to come by as it is) in spare capacity you can't use because you can't sell the hundreds of thousands of extra rounds.

If ammo manufacturers would increase production, there will be bargains to be made after the boom, because the manufacturers will be desperate to liquidate their huge overstocks, and make the best out of their increased capacity by trying to steal market share by lowering their prices.

Boris.

The ammo companies arnt stupid! They are producing HI Profit goods that are in HI demand --They are smart in not spending millions to increase output when the demand will slow when the saturation point is reached.Remember we still have the production capacity to supply a war if need be !

I'm not sure there is the production capacity to supply a full scale war at this time. But that's why the military keeps huge stocks of ammo, to buffer demand while the industry increases production

Edit: I do mean a war as in WWII, there is production capacity to supply a gulf war type conflict, as it was and is being supplied

Dude, it's been 6 months without ammo. It's not Monday, it's now Saturday.

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I don't know what it costs to buy new warehouse space and new machines and tooling and whatnot to start a new line for ammo production.

The guys at the ammo companies probably do. Based on what it costs to increase production, and how much they will have to sell to pay off that increased production, a 6 month time span may be extremely short.

It is hard to tell without actual numbers, but if it takes them 5 years to pay off the increased production expenses they may have run the numbers and decided that the ammo bubble will burst before that.

Speaking of the NRA.
There was a free registration drive and from a link here, I signed up.

I got some paperwork in the mail along with a survey. GREAT

Guess what?
They wanted me to register (again I guess?) for a FEE of course.

So ahem, if it was FREE to register, why do they now want money to register? (re-register?)

Tricky bait and switch in my book and they just screwed the pooch.

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I signed my wife up and got the same paperwork. They gave you a year for free. They then asked that you actually pay to join for next year.

They did give you a one year membership for free. There was no bait and switch. There was a generous entry offer and an opportunity to stay longer.

Heck, I'm a life member and they ask for money. I'm free to say no, but I don't consider it a bait and switch.

I recently played golf at a highly reduced green fee at a private club. With the economy down, the club is trying to get new members. I played the course at my reduced fee, and they gave me an opportunity to join the club for more money. I declined, but I still got to play my 18 holes for cheap. No bait and switch there either.

Umm Did anyone notice Noslor ammo was there too? Anyway I had a great time.

Boris and danprkr hit the nail on the head - the ammo mfg's realize that by the time they've invested millions in ramping up capacity, the demand will have tapered off, and they'd be left holding the bag. Lots of surplus, low sales, and lay offs for the guys on the production line.

Granted, with the rest of the economy so slow, it may be a good time to buy machinery, but theirs is all custom designed and fabricated. The engineering costs involved with new designs to maximize efficiency are extremely costly. Material costs are at unprecedented highs. Cutting edge controls and automation tke time to develope. After all, if they're going to spend the $$$$ to increase capacity, they're going to go after the most cost effective technology available.

Many(most) shops that build, and /or specialize in custom machinery, mine included, are slow, so there may be some discounts available on that end, just to get some work in the door. But it still ain't cheap.

Just like our 'economically challenged' government, the more they spend now, the longer it takes to payoff the investment, if it's even possible. Only they were more practical about it than the government.

I don't like the shortages any more than anyone else, but not investing millions in new equipment to avoid a possible short term shortage is the smartest long term decision the ammo makers could have made.