Impact of the 2013 spike in gun prices

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gspn

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When i think about the spike in gun prices I wonder how it has impacted future sales. You could separate the country into several groups with regard to guns:

1 - those who already own and arent looking to add
2 - those who own and will make future purchases
3 - those who bought first gun in 2013
4 - those who dont own but will buy in the future
5 - those who will never own

I think I'm in group 2 but everytime i look at prices I move back to group 1. While prices have come down from the panic levels they just arent yet back to where i grew used to seeing them. Until such time as they A-come back down, or B - i get used to the "new normal" i just wont be buying anything.

Theres a million reasons to buy more guns and i imagine im just fooling myself in the short run by thinking im in group 1, but it does make me wonder what percentage of current gun owners have put off purchases because they still view prices as artificially high?

This also plays into manufacturers profits. What percentage of guns are sold to existing gun owners? Historically what percentage has been sold to new gun owners? I say "historically" because one cant expect panic buying by first time buyers to persist...eventually I'd expect those sales to revert toward their long run average. It might even drop below that average in the near term because a lot of demand was "pulled forward" by the panic...meaning that gun sales they would have made in 2014 and 2015 were likely made in 2013 instead due to the panic.

Anyway...what are your thoughts? What did the Great Panic of 2013 do to change the landscape for both buyers and manufacuters over the next few years?
 
None of us are in group 1 in the long term. Except maybe for a very few who've reached their later years and are looking to sell off the collection before they pass on.

All of the rest of us may be not currently planning a purchase, but the bug will bite sometime. So that puts 95%+ of us into group 2.

As far as what the panic does in the long term? Well, those folks in group 3 are now gun owners at least, and maybe even enthusiastic shooters. Gun makers ALWAYS make tons more money off die-hards buying more and new gear than they make from first-timers just getting into it.

But first-timers fall into two camps. Those (probably 1/2, maybe more) who jumped into it but won't really make it a big part of their lives and their AR-15 will end up in the back of the closet with that set of cross-country skis and their BowFlex. And then there are the rest (probably well less than 1/2, but we can hope) who end up as gun guys and gals who will naturally be purchasing again in the future.

We've come to act (once more, again) like a panic year is the new normal and there won't ever be .22 ammo again and a box of 9mm will always cost $30, and 5.56mm will be $2 a shot and you can't buy an AR-15 for [strike]$1,800[/strike], [strike]$1,500[/strike], [strike]$1,200[/strike], [Strike]$1,000[/strike]...what is it now? About $800? Welp, it's happening already.

We picked up a lot of new folks, and many of the old hands got woken up and shaken up a bit so there's lots of life in the market going forward. Gonna be a good few years in the industry.
 
Have you looked at the sale prices on Black Friday and Cyber Monday?!?!

Prices have plummeted on EBRs and people who couldn't afford to purchase an AR-15 can score for under $700.

The banic cause production to go to 24/7 shifts and anyone that is catching the excess sell off now is getting outrageous deals.

I didn't intend to add anything since I have "enough", but I've actually bought an embarrassing amount while the sales were hot.
 
I'm still in 2 but approaching 1, Very price sensitive, but I've still got a few I want to own before I hit stage 1. Once in stage 1, I suspect I won't really be able to enjoy shooting them all that much.

Prices have plummeted on EBRs
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Certainly not on AKs and other stuff that was always well above your mid range AR.
 
Well, I didn't think I was going to buy anything this year. I continued to think that until I saw that the MKA-1919 was being sold for $620. I believe this to be undervalued in the long run so I picked one up.

Then I saw an early Para-Ordnance on-line for $525. I think is a great deal for the base gun for a hi-cap 10mm conversion I have been planning. I had already bought the barrel and magazines for this conversion some time ago so I bought this gun too.
 
"Blew all my money on guns and am now looking to sell (ideally at a profit)" should be another category; lord knows there are such folks out there off loading past purchases (or are simply drawing down their inventory since prices are still elevated)

TCB
 
Seems like you're mostly talking about AR's and other milsurps. I didn't buy anything when prices jumped. Have little need to buy now even if the AR is $700. But that could change in a minute.
 
I think that generally some type of guns have come down in price over the last few months. But most of what I’ve seen in my area, the lower prices are for the plastic stuff, Glocks and S&W M&Ps. AR15’s have come down, but not much and the AK’s are still way higher than they deserve. It seems to me that any price drops are somewhat dependent on the region. In some areas the prices have come down quite a bit and in others, they seem to still running pretty high.

I have bought three guns this year, but they’re oldie but goodies and only because I stumbled on them at a good enough price that I couldn’t walk away without tears in my eyes.
 
Despite the naysayers who think this is a "new normal" I'm optimistic. Prices are falling already, ammo shelves that were bare of ANY ammo are now (at least locally) pretty much fully stocked aside from .22 ammo, and even that can be found on occasion whereas I went almost 2 yrs without seeing it on store shelves. Things cycle, and while gun/ammo prices are drastically affected by current events and/or politics, things seem to always eventually level out, IMO. I own several guns, and while I haven't bought any during the "panic" (haven't had the urge bite moreso than due to pricing) I do plan on expanding my collection, and I think I'll be able to do so at decent prices when I move to expand
 
I am basically in group three. I am hoping I won't look back in a year and say "Crap, I paid way too much for those guns!"

I think I have done ok. I definitely did NOT go out and pay $3000 for a $1000 AR, most I have spent was $500 on a pretty nice 9mm pistol with extra mags and a holster. Maybe a bit high, but I also have gotten a good deal or two ($295 for a ruger security six!) Most of my guns are are in the 100-300 range at this point, where it is hard to have gotten TOO bad of a deal.

Queen, Cabelas has cheap 9mm (brass, not steel cased) for $14.00 a box and free shipping! I bought some, once I confirm it runs well in my gun, going to buy more.
 
Until such time as they A-come back down, or B - i get used to the "new normal" i just wont be buying anything.
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Welcome to the new normal; price increases reflect more than panic issues - Ocare is major cost for many being just one example
 
Business costs have skyrocketed because of the costs involved. My wife's company has seen the insurance go up 30% /yr for the last two years to cover the costs of Ocare. THAT cost gets passed onto the buyers as increased retail costs. Factor in lower tax revenues and thus increased rates and now a business is seeing their annual license go from XXX to XXX times 2, payroll taxes went up, insurances (other) went up, utilities went up...

Some folks just don't get it - businesses do NOT pay taxes, YOU do through increased prices as those costs are passed through
 
Business costs have skyrocketed because of the costs involved. My wife's company has seen the insurance go up 30% /yr for the last two years to cover the costs of Ocare. THAT cost gets passed onto the buyers as increased retail costs. Factor in lower tax revenues and thus increased rates and now a business is seeing their annual license go from XXX to XXX times 2, payroll taxes went up, insurances (other) went up, utilities went up...
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Hey one ounce, as much as I would like to blame NOBAMA, but your facts are incorrect.

Healthcare costs have been steadily rising since before the Busch SR. administration. Sure increases in deductibles have increased this year because of his meddling. but in large part healthcare costs rising has little to nothing to do with NOBAMA Care. Healthcare is follows an inelastic demand curve. when you need it you need it and you have little or no choice but to get it....
 
Sorry, my wifes ínsurance was steady for 10 years; the last two have seen 30% increases each year and BCBS SAID it was because they had to prepare for Ocare I now have less coverage and increased costs and she works for a decent company; the smaller mom and pop shops with enough employees are being slammed hard. Those costs get passed on to you and me through higher prices. When you add in that the makers and the middlemen also have these increases, retail prices go up
 
One ounce, what you are saying has nothing do do with gun prices. If what you say is true, that ACA is causing dramatic price increases, then EVERY product would see the same increases. I don't see any other products (cars, computers, furniture, groceries, appliances, etc.) with the same skyrocketing prices as guns over the last year.

Is there a reason ACA impacts GUN prices differently than every other product?
 
Pizzapinochle, it doesn't work like that and nothing is ever "equal" even if you can calculate the true impact of these rising costs. Many small business with resist raising prices fearing that they will loose market share and slowly go out of business. The same could happen with smaller AR manufacturers in particular as competition heats up.
 
I too thought I was in group 2, but with the issues in availability of ammo and my self imposed cut back in shooting, I am firmly in group 1. I reload so the ammo shortages do not effect me as much except for lack of components.

It's like the golfer that can't buy golf balls, no reason to go out and buy new clubs is there?

Jim
 
Pizzapinochle said:
One ounce, what you are saying has nothing do do with gun prices. If what you say is true, that ACA is causing dramatic price increases, then EVERY product would see the same increases. I don't see any other products (cars, computers, furniture, groceries, appliances, etc.) with the same skyrocketing prices as guns over the last year.

Is there a reason ACA impacts GUN prices differently than every other product?
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You may not be paying attention, then.

I'll try to not be too much off topic here. HealthCare is one thing. The devaluation of the American Dollar is one thing. There are many things factoring in, but I've seen a drastic increase in the price of my groceries. My utilities have gotten more expensive, with companies citing increasing costs to run the businesses. I'm seeing rising prices as I look at new cell phone plans, compared to, say, two to three years ago.

The point is, things are getting more expensive. Everything is, with few exceptions. I can probably get a new tv for cheaper than I could two years ago, but that has other factors at play.

The point is that the new normal is not just an increase in gun and ammo prices. Yeah, I'd like to see .22lr back at the prices it was 10 years ago, but I'm not more likely to see that happen than I am to see gasoline prices or the price of bread back where it was 10 years ago.
 
ChaoSS said:
You may not be paying attention, then.

I'll try to not be too much off topic here. HealthCare is one thing. The devaluation of the American Dollar is one thing. There are many things factoring in, but I've seen a drastic increase in the price of my groceries. My utilities have gotten more expensive, with companies citing increasing costs to run the businesses. I'm seeing rising prices as I look at new cell phone plans, compared to, say, two to three years ago.

The point is, things are getting more expensive. Everything is, with few exceptions. I can probably get a new tv for cheaper than I could two years ago, but that has other factors at play.
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Absolutely things are getting more expensive across the board. BUT, the gun market is the only place where someone was selling something a year or two USED for twice what they bought it for NEW and finding willing buyers.

ChaoSS said:
The point is that the new normal is not just an increase in gun and ammo prices. Yeah, I'd like to see .22lr back at the prices it was 10 years ago, but I'm not more likely to see that happen than I am to see gasoline prices or the price of bread back where it was 10 years ago.
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Sure, everything is going up in price, everything is always going up in price.

BUT, is there any other market where someone is selling something they bought NEW in 2008 for $1000 that they could sell used for $1500 like what happened with AR rifles during the panic?

Or "high capacity" magazines that cost $20 new a few years ago selling for $60 a pop on gunbroker?

No one is selling their used phone/TV/car/appliances/computers/stereos/furniture/shoes/anything for 200% of what they bought it for last year.

No one is lining up at 7:00 am to buy $20 food items because they can immediately re-sell them for $50 online.

No other sector of consumer product has anything like these sort of backward economics. Maybe when a brand new xBox of iWhatever comes out you can sell one for higher than retail, but not a used one two years after it was released.

THAT has nothing to do with ACA or inflation or any general economic trends, it is a unique feature of the gun market based purely on panic.
 
You are absolutely correct. I'm just saying that the new normal will not be what the old normal is, and that prices, on everything, have risen by more than a few percentage points even over the past year or two, so we shouldn't expect the new normal to be that close to the old normal.

I can buy .22lr at Walmart for about 25 bucks, and I don't expect it to go down, even when it is on the shelves in every Walmart in America with no lines to pick it up. Maybe a few bucks, but I'll be shocked if it goes below 22-23 dollars.


The panic prices had to do with overwhelming demand. If Xboxes were being made so slowly that 2 years after they came out, they still weren't being stocked, and then they announced that they might be going out of production, or sales of them might get banned, yeah, I'd expect the same thin to happen with them.
 
ChaoSS, got it and agreed.

My replies were related to this statement:

Welcome to the new normal; price increases reflect more than panic issues - Ocare is major cost for many being just one example
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I was trying to figure out how that related specifically to gun price.

Ocare may/may not contribute to the % point rise in everything, a price increase that is permanent across the board across the whole of the economy.

Ocare has nothing to do with the HUGE price increases we saw in the gun market (people paying $2000 for a $1000 used gun or $60 for a $24 box of 22lr).

I am laughing a bit at your xBox example. I think they should try it. See how long they can keep people camping outside of Best Buy by only sending 5 units a week to each store for 6 months after release.
 
Pizzapinochle, firearms and ammunition are rather unique. Demand exceeded the supply to willing buyers and the prices went up. The manufacturers were already producing at maximum and there was no/little slack to be taken up.

One thing about firearms is they are not typically disposable. Ammunition is more like your food example as it is a consumable. However, it's shelf life is much longer than most food items I am aware of.

In other countries, people do stand in line for food. And they do in fact pay very high prices with resales. The USSR was an example of this. People would resell fuel if it were more portable when prices and supplies are unstable.
 
22-rimfire said:
Pizzapinochle, firearms and ammunition are rather unique. Demand exceeded the supply to willing buyers and the prices went up. The manufacturers were already producing at maximum and there was no/little slack to be taken up.

One thing about firearms is they are not typically disposable. Ammunition is more like your food example as it is a consumable. However, it's shelf life is much longer than most food items I am aware of.

In other countries, people do stand in line for food. And they do in fact pay very high prices with resales. The USSR was an example of this. People would resell fuel if it were more portable when prices and supplies are unstable.
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All true, but not sure why you are telling me?

I just asked why One Ounce thought Ocare was related to the panic level pricing, b/c i don't see a connection unique to guns.
 
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