It's just a case of the perfect storm...
Regardless of who or what is behind it...
I don't think there's any great conspiracy AFA 22LR shortages - I figure it's caused by:
1. Preppers - this appears to be the caliber of choice - I'm no prepper, but have listened to a number of their podcasts - a few know what they're doing, but you can tell the majority of the callers don't. I figure the Federal Nitrogen Packed cans of 22 are the result of the prepper market?
2. New shooters - some are probably starting with a 22.
3. 22LR ARs - At's me, and who knows how many others out there? I got into 22LR 8 months ago (bought my first 22AR) - us folks can shoot a lot of 22LR in an afternoon! I still hear old timers complain and ask "what are you going to do with that much ammo?" I tell 'em it's a new day, and the rules have changed - I ain't squirrel hunting with a bolt action 22 - we're dumping a lot thru our semi-autos. I know a lot of folks that have bought 22ARs over the last year, and have been buying the 22LR to feed 'em.
4. Flippers - I've seen them in action at our local Walmart - brings an entire posse (and wives) - often the worst if there's a big local flea market in the area.
5. Panic buyers - you know it's going on, probably by some that don't even have a 22. We recently had a fellow show up at the shop with an AR he bought at a gun show (thought he was going to make money on it). He sheepishly told the shop owner he paid $2,500, but was asking "only" $1,600 for it. The shop owner pointed at the exact same AR sitting in his rack for $999.
I feel like the same thing is going to happen to some of the flippers, but who knows when?
6. Ammo makers not expanding - although I heard on Tom Gresham's show a while back that some ammo makers have finally decided that what we see going on now may not be the new normal, they've finally decided that when things do slow down, 22LR sales are still going to be much higher than in the past. As such, some have finally decided to expand, but it will take a while for production to come on line, and I'm sure they're thinking small (expansion).
And there ya have it - I'm sure I missed a smaller group or two, but the above have the makings for a perfect storm AFA causing the 22 ammo shortage.