Full disclosure - It's expired due to inactivity, but I was once a licensed stock broker and financial advisor and worked in that industry for a few years (long enough to be a premier trader - I routinely advised multi-millionaire clients and make trades worth millions of $ - and understand the markets). I saw rampant corruption in the markets. I have strong distrust for them due to market manipulation by powerful firms and individuals. The big secret is that the markets are designed to get powerful people rich on your money. I could go on and on... Nobody in the industry will tell you that because it's their livelihood. I no longer have these financial licenses and am NOT making any professional advice. I didn't like the industry, the corruption, and chose a different career path so my licenses expired. So this is life experience and opinion I'm sharing, with my view of current events.
You can cherry pick both great and bad economic times in the last few decades. But it's not relevant going forward.
Using a compounding interest calculator, IF (and it's a big IF) you can guarantee 4% return (which is awesome) on an investment over the next 16 years, $1000 is about $1900 in 16 years. A whopping $1900. Big deal. Let's not forget that the dollar is declining and inflation may eat away a lot of that.
http://investor.gov/tools/calculators/compound-interest-calculator But let's not forget that you *could* also lose it all. You could have 10 great years and wham, lose 100% of it if you invest poorly. Let's not forget all the fees, taxes, etc. associated.
Anyone who believes the markets in the future will perform as they did in the past is not tuned into the financial health of our nation. I was also in the military for 7 years so I have intimate experience with government and the rampant fraud/waste/abuse. I hate to say it, and many simply won't accept the reality, but we have a dying nation - it's dying from bloated government, wasted resources, ruined manufacturing bases, terrible laws, and crippling debt. Just like if you borrowed way too much in your household, and lived a lifestyle well above your means, someday the bill is due and if you can't pay, bad things happen. Well, we have built this wonderful appearance of a house with lots of 'stuff,' but our wealth is now a total fraud. The markets, the banks, our wealth and power is all 'borrowed' and we simply can't repay it at this point. To be blunt, it's a house of cards and the we're in for some strong winds. Detroit is a micro-economy of what our nation is facing. Once a proud, prosperous center of industry and model for the world, producing nearly every car consumed in the world. People in the 1950s would think you're crazy to say that it would fail. Yet here we are. Terrible policies, laws, taxes, and failure to respond to the global competition ruined Detroit. Now the jobs and industry are gone. Rampant poverty, unemployment, and social welfare. Hundreds of square miles of vacant housing and businesses that can't be sold for a single $1. Murder rate rivals Chicago and Washington DC. Cops don't respond to 911 calls. Uncontrollable crime, dog fighting, prostitution, etc. It's a drug and crime infested ghost town with rampant insurmountable problems, and that change took about 3 decades.
We've had 'corrections' in the recent past (~2001, 2005, 2008) when various 'bubbles' burst. These small corrections collapsed the markets. What happens when a REAL financial collapse happens? We're facing insurmountable problems. Declining dollar. Peak oil (oil is what most of our prosperity is based on). Called debts. Future war with REAL opponents, not 3rd world armpits. And on and on and on... As a nation, few leaders have the fortitude and ability to change course. So... it's not a matter of "IF" but "WHEN..."
Again, we have a $17 Trillion national debt, with some $100 Trillion in unfunded liabilities. There isn't enough money in the world to repay our unfunded liabilities. That's worth repeating. There isn't enough money in the world to repay our unfunded liabilities. As a nation, we have borrowed MORE in the last few years than in he combined HISTORY of our nation. Each working person owes $125,000 in Federal debt.
Think about America and why we became a world power. We made stuff. We were fiscally responsible. We innovated. Most of the major innovations came from the United States in the 20th Century. Most of our nation pulled together and was patriotic and made selfless sacrifices for family and nation. People never expected handouts. We took care of our old within the family. We expected to work hard. We won wars decisively. And we used our resources wisely. When we had hard times, we pulled through working together and making things. Our kids got jobs and worked hard. Look at our youth today. That is our future. Alarming drugs, crime, lack of morality, and lack of education (government education is among the worst in the 1st world), lack of self-reliance skills.
Now, the opposite of success is our global model. Corruption. Debt. Handouts. Destroyed middle class. Tossing grandma into retirement homes. A youth that does not appear up to the task of the greatest generation which built our nation. Lack of national morality. Destroyed global reputation with foolish wars that were either lost, stalemates and never worth the sacrifices, etc. Oh, and this isn't just Leadcounsel pontificating on our decline. History repeats itself. Global superpowers fell (or lost most of its world influence) includes an impressive list: Rome, England (once owned 4/5ths of the world), Russia, etc.. The common theme: Debt. War. Poor leadership. Lack of national direction or integrity. Sad part is, the majority of American adults care more about "Reality TV" and the football score... and looking for handouts... asleep at the wheel.
Anyone who thinks that this is just Chicken Little - be honest and answer why we, America, is different than all of the previous failed nations who did the same stuff we are deep in... what makes us special to avoid falling off the cliff?
How is this gun related. Well, I think investing in physical, tangible items/tools is going to pay off in OUR future more than some worthless paper ownership in some company in a far off state - when that company may be cooking books or subject to arbitrary taxes and laws that may negatively impact it; and when the value of your assets fluctuate up and down as much as 50% in a moment due to some event in a foreign land, terrorism, lawsuits, and on and on and on.
There are reports that with the rising cost of college, that it's not worth the investment. Pick a tradeschool instead. Some very successful people didn't graduate from college, including Bill Gates.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2013/08/05/college-students-loans-debt-column/2616761/
My advice is to buy cheap and stack deep. I fear the childs' life will be harder than picking which college to attend. Yes, guns and accessories and ammo fluctuate. But as any smart financial person will tell you, buy low. NOW is the time to buy guns, ammo and accessories low. I just saw advertisements for $8 AR mags, $700 AR15s, $600 AK47s, etc. This is a downward 'dip' in the market.
In the past, traditional investments *may* have been the way to go. I say that, because lets not forget there were a LOT of losers in the past too, not just winners. However in the FUTURE, I firmly believe that REAL self-reliance skills and knowing how to use your hands AND brains will be more important than some $200,000 degree on the wall. I'd much rather be given an AR15 and 1000 rounds of ammo and a few mags than *potentially* some cash (around $1900 as described above, which won't even make a dent in a college education) - if it's worth anything in 16 years.
There's more than just "resale" value in a firearm. It's a life saving tool, good for self defense, deterrence, hunting, and freedom. Guns are frankly underpriced for what they are, and should be about 10 times what they cost. Someday there will be a 'market correction' and their true value will be clear.