20/20 hindsight -- "If only I'd known..."

[Hutch]

A question was raised on the Handloading forum that got me to pondering. A couple of years ago, I quit reloading 9mmP, 'cause I could buy Blazer ammo at a local discount sporting goods store for $3.88 a box. Now, the component prices are higher than that, brass not included. A couple of years ago, you could by Turk 8mm ammo at prices that made it cheap enough to consider using it for driveway gravel. No longer. Same way with Turkish Mausers, which were south of $50 for a M98. That got me to wondering....

What are we going to look back on in 2 - 5 years and say: "Man, I wish I'd have bought 10x more of that/those back in the fall of '07!" The only thing I can think of right now is .30-'06 ammo from ODCMP. Anybody else got any insights?

 

[Fatelvis]

I predict that shooters will = reloaders shortly. (Unless you're wealthy).

 

[30 cal slob]

wait until the next recession and deflationary death spiral. you might get cheap ammo yet.

 

[PTK]

30 cal slob is correct. You probably won't have the money for it then, though!

 

[springmom]

My eyes about popped out of my head yesterday at Gander Mountain....doing my usual stroll down the ammo aisle, and as I'd been to the range and shot up a bunch of my 9mm, I leaned down to get a 100ct of WWB. It was $22. There for a minute I thought I was looking at the .380. Or the Makarov. But no, that was your basic 9mm luger ammo, and I do mean *basic*, for $22. The Remington JHP was $44 for 50

We weren't intending to handload for 9mm because "it's so cheap." Yeah. Right . Off to go get the dies this weekend and get that setup done.

Springmom

 

[Hutch]

Okay, that's the BAD news. Where can we still find GOOD news?

 

[GTSteve03]

The good news is that the Feds just lowered interest rates, and might do it again soon.

The bad news is that makes your dollar worth even less than it already is, which is at all-time lows versus other currencies. So buy all that you can now, your buying power is just going to get worse as this progresses.

 

[cnorman18]

Good deals?

I've never bought from this site, but it seems to be well-regarded:

http://www.classicarms.us/

I know next to nothing about milsurps, but thexe deals look good to me. Go to the site and look around.

Romanian military variation AKs, $319.95

WASR-10s, $289.95

NIB Saiga 7.62x39, $249.95; .223, $259.95; .308, $329.95.

M44s, $99.95

Steyr M95 8x56R, $99.95

Yugo SKS, $169.95

Swiss K-31, $169.95 & up

Nagant revolvers, $89.95

Ammo for same, 40 rounds, $14.95

CZ-82 9x18, C&R eligible,$219.95

CZ-52, 7.62x25, $139.95

Ammo for same, 800/$99.95, 1600/$189.95

Bulgarian brass-cased 7.62X54R ammo, 1200 rounds, $199.95; 300 rounds, $55

7.62x39 Golden Tiger Russian steel-case, 360 rounds in an ammo can, $67.50; 1000 round case, $169.95

Wolf .223, 500 rounds, $99.95

And so on. There's lots more. I dunno--are these good deals?

 

[SSN Vet]

GOOD news?

well, I started picking up 9mm brass this past Spring and have over a thousand cases....and the 4 die Lee set is ~$20.....

Looks like I'll get to put those cases to good use after all....

AND....

as soon as I wrap up another big project I'm presently mired down in, I'm definately buying a casting set up.

And....

I just happen to have ~20# of lead flashing scrap from anther past project.

Being a pack rat may just pay off some day.

 

[armoredman]

I just cast another 67 9mm bullets this morning, drying the first lube, (for sizing) in the garage. I don't cast for volume, but perfection, (high reject rate with me), and for relaxation, so an hour for 67 boolits is Ok for me. This particular 124gr mold casts oversize at .360, so I can size it to .358 for the 38, or .356 for the 9mms. I really need a good 174gr .303 Brit mold now.
Note, cast doesn't work as well with high speed semi-auto rifles, such as.223. I will need jacketed bullets for that, and the 7.62x39mm. But, concetrating on handgun shooting/reloading can really lower my costs!

 

[MudPuppy]

30 cal slob is correct. You probably won't have the money for it then, though!

Yup, buy it now even at inflated prices because your dollar's value is going down the tube on a daily basis!
"The U.S. dollar hit a new low against the seemingly unstoppable euro Friday and fell further against the Canadian dollar after reaching parity for the first time since 1976 on Thursday. <snip> The decline in the U.S. currency is helping push up commodity prices, most of which are denominated in dollars"
http://www.thestate.com/business/story/180622.html

 

[JKimball]

What are we going to look back on in 2 - 5 years and say: "Man, I wish I'd have bought 10x more of that/those back in the fall of '07!" The only thing I can think of right now is .30-'06 ammo from ODCMP. Anybody else got any insights?

Just imagine if something like H.R. 1022 gets passed in the next few years. Prices on semi-autos and high capacity magazines will start climbing big time.

 

[Danus ex]

The bad news is that makes your dollar worth even less than it already is, which is at all-time lows versus other currencies. So buy all that you can now, your buying power is just going to get worse as this progresses.

In the short term, yes. Ultimately, a lower dollar value is just what the doctor ordered for our housing- and credit-crunched economy right now--it increases our exports and encourages foreigners to invest their high-value currency here.

That said, as long as we're buying foreign metal with our weak dollar, ammunition costs will be high. I think the best potential outcome for shooters is if our currency slides enough to make domestic copper, lead, tin, and iron mining more attractive to the world market. Then, as our currency inevitably improves we can purchase domestic metal until foreign metal becomes a cheaper option (putting our new miners out of work, helping them default on their loans, scaring banks into reducing their loans and investments, and starting the whole cycle all over again. Don't forget the zillion other potential factors, either, my example is over-simplified.)

 

[Hutch]

Okay, add standard capacity magazines to the ODCMP ball ammo. Anything ELSE else?

 

[revjen45]

The Kondratieff Wave is likely to kick in and we could see deflation. It is showing in the housing market, but that could be an adjustment to unrealistic increases in values. Those who have been frugal and save money won't be as bad off as those who have run up debt. Deflation would be a very serious condition because people would know whatever they bought would be worth less tomorrow. Cartain commodities (likely ammunition among them) would become especially valuable if social order were to deteriorate with concomitant increase in violence and affray.

 

[mpmarty]

I've got thousands of good old (1986 - 1988) Winchester primers in all sizes that I paid less than $7.50 a thousand for. I think I'll try the Magtech primers and if they are any good I'll invest a thousand dollars or so to replenish my stock.

In 1968 you could buy a 100 pound keg of H-4831 for $50.00 Wish I had.

 

[Hutch]

So, high priced ammo and components (by current standards) will look like raging bargains in the future? I've seen prices of ammo and components fluctuate before. Anyone remember the primer mania of the 1993-4 period? The $100 Glock magazines? Looks pretty silly now. What WON'T look silly in 5 years?

 

[FieroCDSP]

I rarely buy factory ammo now, unless I need the cases. For range ammo, plated bullets are a great alternative to FMJ, where you can. Lead is another great money saver. Sometimes you have to go FMJ.

Regardless, factory costs are horrible, and my investments in loading gear is already paying off. I just need to crank out some cash for bulk components.