It's not really a toss up at all. The 9mm will be 200 fps or so faster pushing a bullet that is approximately the same diameter.
Item 20A: 158gr., very soft cast, semi wad cutter, (Keith) hollow cavity, with a gas check. This bullet will mushroom violently on impact and will penetrate roughly 14 inches in human flesh. Again, this bullet is gas checked and will not lead your barrel.
S&W mod. 60, 2 inch—1040 fps (379 ft. lbs.)
S&W mod. 66, 2.5 inch—1059 fps (393 ft. lbs.)
Ruger SP101, 3 inch—1143 fps (458 ft. lbs.)
S&W Mt. Gun, 4 inch—1162 fps (474 ft. lbs.)
Item 20B: 125gr. Speer Uni-core (Gold Dot). This is the Low velocity version designed to expand under 800 fps. It will mushroom violently and penetrate roughly 12 inches in human flesh.
a. S&W mod 60, 2 inch—1072 fps (319 ft. lbs.)
b. S&W mod 66, 2.5 inch—1108 fps (341 ft. lbs.)
c. Ruger SP101, 3 inch—1180 fps (386 ft. lbs.)
d. S&W Mt. Gun, 4 inch—1258 fps (439 ft. lbs.)
these were taken from buffalo bore websight and I have chronoed their stuf their #s are right on since OP said std 9mm vs 38+p. find me a std pressure 124 9mm thats going 1250 fps or as you said 1450.