The following statement has been made by RX-79G.
Instead of examining what is likely, I think it is best to consider what is possible, then train and equip yourself for as many of those possibilities as is practical.
Very insightful statement. Although the average self defense situation is 3yds/3 shots, those results came from a bucketful of multiple rounds, and multiple distances, then some kind of division.
My thought is that look at a group of what has happened in various shootings, which tend to mostly be Police shootings, those brave men and woman run to the sound of gunfire, my thought would by Wife/Jeep/and go!
So a Glock 19, that I carry, and shoot IDPA with, same gun. TruGlo sights, very bright, day or night, 16 rounds in the pistol, of 147g Ranger T, spare G17 magazine, 17 rounds of NATO Hard Ball (would have a better chance of penetrating cover) a bright Surefire Flash light, Benchmade folding knife.
I am not a mediocre shot! At 7m, a hit into an eye socket is doable.
So this combination is carried every day. My job, protecting who is with me, my Wife of 23 years, or Grand Kids! The comment on combat breathing, good idea. A 100m hit, possible. For instance, a Clay Pidgeon can be dust at 50m.
So my advice, carry overkill, if needed you have lots of rounds, if not, you are equipped anyhow.
Sgt. Chuck Haggard, great article. A realist.
In being invited to a SWAT class in Tennessee, back in the 90s (I am terrible for dates!) as a member of the IALEFI Board of Directors, but mostly for my Pistol Training ability's!
Short version, they had a member of the team, but he could not pass the Qualifying pistol portion. Great with Shotgun/AR/Sniper rifle, hopeless with pistol! My job, enjoy the week long course, but fix the failing pistol shooter.
Why they wanted him so much? He was an amazing Street Cop, dress him up, he could vanish in any crowd. Fearless, nice guy, great scrapper! And he was black! In a place were Cops were almost exclusively white.
End result I could not train him to shoot pistol! My second failure in 25 years.
But I did learn a lot in that week long class (one thing, me at 60, could not keep up with 20+ year olds!)
We had access to a Hi School, just closed the week prior, moved to a New School. You could still smell the floor wax, spotless.
We did School Entry, old School, did not enter till we had enough people, 5? a diamond formation, tail end Charlie sealing classrooms we had cleared, kicking rubber wedges under doors.
I was no2 in the stick, when we reached the active shooter, a classroom, with a teacher sitting on a swivel chair, behind him, standing the shooter!
These play actors were not part of our class. Dressed the part, looked the part. We were armed with our own pistols, no magazines, or rounds on our persons (all professionally searched prior too!)
In peeping into the classroom, No1 went to a knee, presented his pistol, and said "Drop the gun" The actor said "Drop yours" And this went on, and on!
I moved the young Officer out of the way, gently. Took in the scene, aimed my Glock 17 at the shooters left eye, all I could see clearly, range 5m.
"You must be getting thirsty, would you like a bottle of water?" When he started to speak... CLICK! My Glock never moved as I dry fired it.
Our group had to clear out, next group moved in, we all went for a de-brief into a classroom. Question No1, "Why did you not shoot?" "I don't know"
"Not sure of hitting the head of the shooter?"
Question No2. Where did I get the idea to ask about water? "It is a technique I used working as a Bouncer in Night Clubs in Liverpool UK.
Only my question was "What time is your last Bus?" when the just about ready to fight! Youth, who had slid one foot back, and had taken that last second glance at his closest pal behind him!
As I saw the thought go in to his eyes! Straight left broken nose, right side kick to forward knee! One down, others step back. Me the center of three Bouncers on the door. The other two being way bigger than me.
When I teach Police, the nasty adrenalin fueled response? Domestic. Size of kitchen, viewed from door, around 5m distance. The average Police re-ql, uses big man sized target! Service pistol not used for the good old 2" dot target so much. But needed, knife to throat response.
Sorry for the length, just kept thinking back!