Could AR popularity and sales getting low

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The main thing we have a shortage of is pro gun politicians. We need to work on that.

There is no shortage of ARs lately. Sure, some things are still behind schedule a little, but for the most part the average AR is not only widely available, but often on sale right now. I do not believe the demand is down so much as people are cash poor from buying what they could for the time being.

All things ebb and flow. The AR is still highly popular. :)
 
Nope, they don't and if you'd actually look at some ballistics data rather than making assumptions you'd see how well the 5.56 NATO / .223 Rem actually does perform on larger game.


I'm sorry, but that's absolutely false. The USMC has never stopped qualifying at 500 meters even with the M16. The long distance terminal ballistic handicap of the 14.5" bbl M4 Carbine was solved several years with the introduction of the Mk 262 / Mk 262 Mod1 ammunition. Further, the M14 is not coming back into service. Those SEI rebuilt M14 DMRs were a temporary solution and they're being replaced by the KAC M110 for DMR issue in the big army, and the FN SCAR-H in some spec ops roles. 7.62 NATO is strictly used as a DMR, sniper, and GPMG cartridge. It is not coming back as a general issue rifle cartridge. Sorry to burst your bubble, but those are the facts.

Maybe not general issue but it's coming back. Who knows what the civilian market will want. Those M14 EBR rifles are out there, just expensive. People buy all kinds of weird stuff. I do know one thing for sure however, the AR market is saturated. Might be time to buy one.:D
 
Nope, they don't and if you'd actually look at some ballistics data rather than making assumptions you'd see how well the 5.56 NATO / .223 Rem actually does perform on larger game.

First off, don't assume that I haven't looked at ballistics data.

Second, I don't know if you hunt large game but I have and I can tell you that most of the people I've hunted with prefer 30 cal something or other. Ask around the next time you are someplace like Alaska where they hunt a lot of large game. A 22 is not a large game caliber, never has been and never will be. Sorry to burst your bubble. :(
 
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CoalTrain, we're having a failure to communicate. .223 / 5.56 performs quite well on large game like deer. I've seen the results on 180-220 lb does and bucks. If you consider that medium game, then I'll call it medium game. Either way, that's a critter that's pretty darn close in size and build to the average adult male human. Taking a 600 lb Elk capable cartridge into combat against 150-250 lb humans is a waste. You're stuck with heavier ammo and less of it in rifle that weighs more, recoils harder, and has slower follow up shots. That's why full power cartridges like the 7.62 NATO will never be used in a general issue rifle again. They're great for DMR / Sniper and GPMG roles.

As for talking to big game hunters I've talked to plenty. Many of the Elk and Moose hunters I've talked to fall into the O'Connor camp and believe that the flatter shooting .270 Win is the way to go. Then there are the Swedes and their Scandinavian brethren the Finns who prefer the 6.5x55 for Wapiti (what we call Elk. What they call Elk is what we call Moose).

The 7.62x39 is an intermediate cartridge as well. It compares more to 5.56 NATO than it does to 7.62 NATO. There's nothing magic about .30" diameter bullet.
 
You can say that again, grizzly. ;)

But Hollywood wants the public to think every gangbanger & street thug is running around with full auto M16s and these ARs look just like them so they must be evil too.

If an antigunnut asks "why do civilians need 30 round magazines?", then I answer "for the same reason cops do". They are standard anyway.

Just don't forget that full auto M16's should be available to every American. Readily available. No wait, no tax, etc.
 
The AR is a great platform for a beginning shooter. My Son killed his first Deer with mine. It has an adjustable stock so it can fit a young shooter. The recoil is mild. It is just an awesome platform. I wish my dad would have had one when I was young.
 
Over half of new rifles sold in this country are AR-15 pattern rifles by some manufacturer.
As for market saturation...not hardly.
The AR-15 is fast becoming - has become, the "1911" of rifles.

Twenty years ago you couldn't give away a 1911. The Army was through with theirs and the civilian world was all gaga over the new-fangled "wonder-9s" with their huge capacity, DA/SA, and just "different" flair over the previous decades of revolvers, revolvers, revolvers. NOW you find 1911's being "assembled" by everyone including...S&W, Remington, SIG, Colt (of course), Ruger, Kimber, Wilson, RIA, Taurus...and on and on and on, and while the so-called "low-end" 1911's are downright CHEAP to buy, the perennial "names" are still commanding "brand prices." Despite all the other handguns out there...Glocks galore, S&W M&P's, Rugers, et al., there is no sign whatsoever of 1911 saled going kaput.

The same is true of the AR-15 "pattern" rifle for the same reason only better. The AR pattern is fully modular, easily assembled by anyone in their garage, can be mixed and matched to one's heart's content...can take it retro, modern, Magpul, quad-rails, long, medium, short, stocks galore, calibers galore and RISING! The .300 AAC was officially introduced just moments before the last "big scare" and even now prices for .300 barrels are as cheap or cheaper and as available or more so than 5.56 barrels! That caliber alone has and will convert huge numbers as more "discover it" and start loading for it. The AR comes in 5.56, .300AAC, 6.5Grendel, 6.8 RemSPC, 7.62x39, 5.45x39, .50 Beowulf, .458 SOCOM...and probably a dozen more cutom wildcats people are experimenting with.
If you've already got a half dozen 5.56 chamberings...well, grab a 5.45 barrel for $100, a matching bolt for $65, and over 2,000 rounds of surplus ammo for just over $300 and slap together ANOTHER version to which you can affix all sort of custom touches! You can buy barrels from 7.5" up to 24" with almost ever inch in between for the 5.56 and the .300. You can go "pistol build" and have an 8.5" .300 Blackout....light, fun to shoot, fun to load for, something "new" to play with.

I suspect any announcement that America's love affair with the 1911 is quite premature!

What I find fascinating is that someone, COLT's name has been primary on all the current high-draw weapons...the 1873 COLT, 1911 COLT, and COLT AR-15 (yeah I know who developed it, but COLT got the contracts).

Every big name rifle maker who USED to try and compete with the AR-15 with something of their own...H&K, SIG, Ruger gave up and joined the club...IMITATION is the sincerest form of flattery! HK-91's, 93's, MP-5's...GONE. Mini-14/30...still breathing but down for the count as Ruger has shifted all REAL support to it's version of the AR-15! Sig...yeah, they make something else...but they're coming over to the AR-15 as well!

So parts and complete rifles are getting cheaper...first I wouldn't thank any major manufacturer for that...thank those "little guys" who carried the torch back when MOST of the fickle shooting public was denouncing the AR platform...the guys who bought all the "cheap" Mil-Surp stuff and resold it in "parts kits." The only thing less expensive rifles means is less expensive parts, and less expensive means people will buy more....even people who own a dozen will find a "need" to own another as prices on parts becomes too good to pass up! Ammo prices down = greater sales as people who were having to juggle priorities to buy a case at $300 find themselves "forced" to jump on a case for $125 (and it could indeed get down there!) The INSTANT the Russians start loading .300 Blackout we'll see those $30/box of 20 prices EVAPORATE right back down to the $12 is was a year and a half ago and that means people will buy MORE of that ammo!

No...the market is by no means saturated nor declining
 
Over half of new rifles sold in this country are AR-15 pattern rifles by some manufacturer.

Sorry but I don't see that as being true. It seems to me that more "conventional" rifles are sold than AR styles. I have no evidence other than personal experience.
 
I won't believe demand has really sloped until I see ColtLE's going for less than their usual premium NIB.

The main thing I see is that there are more and more people saturating the market with well-built but not milspec rifles in order to undercut much of the milspec-built competition.

Example: next to that $1300 Colt and $950 Spike's (the big sponsored brands at my local shops), you'll see Del-Ton rifles with keyhole marks and Core-15s for $700 throwing the word "milspec" out just because of certain features that are engineering-specific and not quality-specific. Online prices show the same thing.

All the "slope" is showing is that the panic buying is, again, for like the fourth time in the past six years, is over.
 
Yes, the last round of panic buying is over. So, anyone reading this thread who is considering an AR, get a good quality one (or 2) now and 20 good quality magazines at ~$10/ea.
 
Sorry but I don't see that as being true. It seems to me that more "conventional" rifles are sold than AR styles. I have no evidence other than personal experience.

Actually, it is true. I'm still looking for the industry sales report, but here's benEzra's summary from 2012:

benEzra said:
The AR-15 platform has been the top selling centerfire rifle in the United States for years. Several years ago I added up the numbers from the BATFE production stats, and I believe even back then that around one in four centerfire rifles sold in the United States was an AR.

Unlike many other rifles, the AR is a generic platform made by dozens of manufacturers in many different calibers, not a specific model made by only one company, so to get the totals you have to add up the production from 30, 40, or 50 different companies or whatever. But the data is there in the BATFE manufacturer's stats; when I combed through several years ago, I counted 33 makers right off the top, some with multiple production facilities.
 
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AR sales are still good but they have slowed. I was just talking to a friend that has three gun shops in the local region and he said his AR sale have dropped 50% from a year ago, while hand gun sales have increased, lot of new women shooters.
 
Sam I know they sell a lot and I would certainly believe your first post indicating that 25% of new rifles are AR styles. The second post indicates that 50-60% are AR's and I have some trouble with that.

This time last year it was undoubtedly true but since the panic ended those sales have pretty much dried up.
 
Well, if I can find that sheet from 2011, I think I could make the case, but I'm having serious trouble locating it. It was posted HERE more than once... sheesh.

As for the second article, I don't know what "federal government statistics" CNN used to get that 50-60% number. Doesn't seem that far off, to me, but I'd like to know how they got it.
 
I'll wait till these people that bought ars find out they don't want them anymore and flood the market with used pretty much new and buy em cheap
 
Well, if I can find that sheet from 2011, I think I could make the case, but I'm having serious trouble locating it. It was posted HERE more than once... sheesh.

As for the second article, I don't know what "federal government statistics" CNN used to get that 50-60% number. Doesn't seem that far off, to me, but I'd like to know how they got it.

As would I.

I don't think there is any way it's over 50%.

Although, if it is, I would wager money it is from that particular time about a year ago and/or it counts all of the stripped lowers as rifles. But even then, stripped lowers are an "other" on the 4473 and many of them are surely still sitting as stripped lowers and not actually rifles.

I mean, ARs are very very popular, but more of them than all other rifles combined? I'm just not seeing it.
 
HellTrain said:
I'll wait till these people that bought ars find out they don't want them anymore and flood the market with used pretty much new and buy em cheap

I've seen some for sale, but people are still trying to price them at panic prices. S&W M&P Sports priced at $1,200 used with a cheap red-dot mounted and they act like they're giving you a deal.
However, I think a lot of people bought one then because they were afraid they wouldn't be able to buy one in the future. They bought one then to have it. I think a lot of those people are planning to hang on to them.

And I hope all the capital put into the gun industry and those companies cranking out AR's generates some R&D and some new products.
 
My 6.8 SPC upper makes my AR into what is now my favorite deer rifle. With the 5.56 upper it is the "truck gun" for varmints of various types and the .22lr upper the go to plinking gun.

I never thought I would want one either but mainly because they were to high priced in my opinion.
 
Sorry but I don't see that as being true. It seems to me that more "conventional" rifles are sold than AR styles. I have no evidence other than personal experience.

Ammo sales will tell you how many are out there.

For 2012 sales for 223/5.56 was at 23% for all calibers.

For 2013 sales for 223/5.56 was at 15% for all calibers.

Only 9mm exceeded it.

No rifle caliber even comes close to those numbers.

I was in Cabelas today and their ammo shelves are restocked. They have more 223/5.56 than anything else by a wide margin.

It's a good bet that it's sales are at least half of all rifles sold in the last 10 years.

But I'm just guessing.
 
I dont think ammo sales show how many rifles are out there. The 30 round semi auto effect kinda skews those numbers.
 
Panic buying would throw things off....but you still need the gun to shoot that ammo. I'd bet there's a heck of a lot more people that own an AR than say....10 years ago. By a lot.
 
Ammo sales will tell you how many are out there.

For 2012 sales for 223/5.56 was at 23% for all calibers.

For 2013 sales for 223/5.56 was at 15% for all calibers.

Only 9mm exceeded it.

No rifle caliber even comes close to those numbers.

I was in Cabelas today and their ammo shelves are restocked. They have more 223/5.56 than anything else by a wide margin.

It's a good bet that it's sales are at least half of all rifles sold in the last 10 years.

But I'm just guessing.

That is guessing, at best.

Different rifle types, for different uses, lend themselves towards different amounts of ammunition being purchased.

There are a lot of lever action and bolt action "deer rifles" out there. Do those guys shoot a case of ammo every year (or every few months)? Almost universally no. Do MSR shooters go through a case or multiple cases in a year? Not uncommonly.

Do guys keep 2,000 rounds of 30-30 on hand for their rifle? Probably not. 2k rounds of 5.56/.223 for the pair of ARs? Many do.
 
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