HK G3
Member
I've thrown together a quick and dirty study design below. I am unsure of the costs, but I propose we try and have an independent "study" conducted to determine the potential efficacy of CCW in saving lives during a mass-shooting event. Perhaps we could call for a donations fund to have the study conducted, or find some criminologists or someone interested in this sort of thing (I really have no idea what academic discipline would be best suited to design/conduct such an experiment) to conduct it. I've done my best (over the few minutes it took me to come up with this, anyway) to eliminate selection bias, but there may still be some, and if we could modify it to best eliminate any, that'd be great. If someone with a background in criminology or something could look it over, that'd be great. My experience with studies are all medical in nature, and this is obviously different than an RCT drug/surgical trial.
Obviously ABC's "study" was extremely flawed, and lacked controls/attempts to eliminate selection biases.
Study Design and Methodology
Participant Selection: Participants must be able to demonstrate enrollment at a local University, community college, and be seeking a bachelor's, post-graduate, or associate degree. Participants should be aged between 18-30 years of age. For safety reasons, participants must be free of any underlying cardiac conditions that could lead to complications when placed under stress. An equal ratio of male:female participants should be found.
Participants will be divided into groups at random, and each group shall be comprised of no less than 20 and no more than 130. Each group should be roughly comparable to one another in terms of median age and male:female ratio. These groups will be placed into a lecture-hall-type room, to be described at a later point.
Each participant in the group will be assigned a number at random, between 1 and the total number of participants in the group. The numbers will correspond with their seat in the replica lecture hall. The person assigned the number 13 shall be assigned to the role of "killer." The person assigned the number 7 shall be assigned the role of "CCW holder" in some groups. There will be no seat labeled 13 or 7 in the lecture hall, and the participants shall not be aware of the seating numbering, but will rather be instructed as to where to sit by those conducting the study. The "CCW holder" will be randomly assigned a second number, and will be seated in this spot, and the other participant will be assigned to the #7 position.
Killer: The participant selected at random to play the role of the "killer" shall be given a 2 hour long course at a shooting range, and have the opportunity to fire no more than 400 rounds of 9mm ammunition at that time, while under the direct supervision of a trained firearms professional/range officer, but will receive no formal instruction in terms of shooting techniques to improve accuracy or marksmanship. He will practice with a Glock 17 semi-auto. This individual will then be trained by a qualified instructor in the operation and use of a Simunitions(TM) replica Glock handgun.
CCW Holder: This individual must complete the training that most states require to obtain a CCW. They will receive instruction on firearms-usage and handling, and will be made aware of several pertinent laws. The student will then train in the same fashion as the "killer" with 400 rounds of 9mm through a Glock 17, under the supervision of a trained CCW instructor. This participant will be allowed the request and receive advice in terms of handling, marksmanship, and accuracy of the firearm.
They will have to complete what is often a common CCW marksmanship/competency exam, where the shooter fires 7 shots at a target 5 yards away, with 5/7 hits, and 7 shots at a target 10 yards away, with 3/7 hits. The participant must complete this requirement, regardless of how many attempts they need.
Marksmen: Some groups will be assigned a "marksman" in lieu of a "CCW Holder" or "killer." These individuals must demonstrate above average competency with a handgun, and be able to be able to achieve a rank of "expert marskman" as per the US Army guidelines regarding the Beretta M9 handgun. They must demonstrate their shooting ability on a range under supervision of study organizers to be qualified for participation.
Lecture Hall: The lecture hall will ideally be made to mimic that of a real teaching environment in most major universities in the country. It will consist of a front and centered teaching area, complete with desk, and computer. There will be a projector pushing lecture slides onto a screen behind the professor's desk area. The student section must consist of seating on an incline with stairs leading to the higher sections of the room. The lecture hall shall have no less than 2 entrances and exits, and no more than 4 entrances/exits. At least one door must be located at the top of the incline, and one at the bottom.
Group Design
There will be 5 groups.
Control: Groups in this category will have neither a "CCW Holder" or a "Marksman" present. Only a single "killer" and students will be in this group.
CCW Group: These groups will contain a single "Killer" and a single "CCW Holder" in addition to the students.
Marksman Group A: These groups will contain a single "killer" and a "Marksman" in lieu of a "CCW Holder".
Marksman Group B: These groups will contain a single "marksman" in lieu of the "killer", and a single "CCW Holder" to oppose the "marksman."
Marksman Group C: These groups will consist of a single "marksman" in lieu of a "killer", and contain no "CCW Holder" or "marksman" to oppose them.
Study Rules: First, safety is paramount. The Simunitions usage must be monitored and approved by individuals trained to do so. All individuals will be allowed to wear whatever clothing they prefer, provided it is deemed adequate for safety by those monitoring safety. The "CCW Holder" must be wearing clothing capable of adequately concealing the gun. They may chose whatever holster they prefer.
Second: The "killer" will be instructed to "kill" as many other study participants as he/she can. He/she will be instructed that a kill counts as a body CoM shot, CNS shot, or shot that is deemed to hit a major blood vessel, such as the femoral artery, as police response times under real incidents upon which this study is based are inadequate to guarantee the survival of individuals sustaining such wounds. They will be offered a monetary incentive for each "kill." The killer will not be informed of the possible presence of the "CCW Holder" in the room, rather, they will be told that when shot by the "police" they are to place their hands in the air. They will be told that the "police" will respond to their attack within an unknown time-frame, so they should try to be as quick as possible in attaining the maximum number of "kills." They will be instructed that they may shoot back at the "police", who will also place their hands in the air if shot.
Third: Those playing the roles of student and CCW holder must attend class, and take with them a backpack, notebooks, and writing utensils. They must take notes throughout the "lecture" prior to the actual attack, which will occur at a random time during the "lecture." They will be informed of a monetary incentive should they escape the room without being shot. If shot in the chest, back, or head, they are to lie down for the duration of the exercise. The CCW Holder will be offered an additional monetary incentive should they successfully shoot the "killer", which will be equal to that of escaping. The equality of incentives should replicate the real life quandry of such a situation, where escaping alive is the only true goal, be it through fight or flight.
Outcome Measures: The outcome measure being studied will be the relative rates of escape of the students. The "death" of the "killer" will be viewed as a positive outcome measure as well. The rate of escapees in the control is to be compared to all other groups. An escape ratio, defined as %Escaped(Control):%Escaped(Group#) shall be established. The percentages will be calculated after running a number of trials within their respective groups. A ratio > 1 is a negative outcome for CCW as an effective means to increasing survival odds, a ratio < 1 is a positive outcome. Should the ratio a certain group be < 1, further trials will be ordered to ascertain replicability of the outcome. Should further trials consistently reveal ratios < 1, then it is reasonable to deem the presence of a CCW Holder in a mass shooting event to increase the likelihood of survival for all individuals during such an event. Should the ratio be close to 1, yet show an increased chance for death of the killer, this too will be viewed as a positive outcome measure, as it will guarantee an end to the shooting spree, and no chance of a real killer pursuing the escapees or targeting other similar rooms.
A ratio less than 1, and an increased likelihood of "killer" mortality is the ideal outcome for demonstrating the efficacy of a CCW in saving lives during a mass-shooting event.
Obviously ABC's "study" was extremely flawed, and lacked controls/attempts to eliminate selection biases.
Study Design and Methodology
Participant Selection: Participants must be able to demonstrate enrollment at a local University, community college, and be seeking a bachelor's, post-graduate, or associate degree. Participants should be aged between 18-30 years of age. For safety reasons, participants must be free of any underlying cardiac conditions that could lead to complications when placed under stress. An equal ratio of male:female participants should be found.
Participants will be divided into groups at random, and each group shall be comprised of no less than 20 and no more than 130. Each group should be roughly comparable to one another in terms of median age and male:female ratio. These groups will be placed into a lecture-hall-type room, to be described at a later point.
Each participant in the group will be assigned a number at random, between 1 and the total number of participants in the group. The numbers will correspond with their seat in the replica lecture hall. The person assigned the number 13 shall be assigned to the role of "killer." The person assigned the number 7 shall be assigned the role of "CCW holder" in some groups. There will be no seat labeled 13 or 7 in the lecture hall, and the participants shall not be aware of the seating numbering, but will rather be instructed as to where to sit by those conducting the study. The "CCW holder" will be randomly assigned a second number, and will be seated in this spot, and the other participant will be assigned to the #7 position.
Killer: The participant selected at random to play the role of the "killer" shall be given a 2 hour long course at a shooting range, and have the opportunity to fire no more than 400 rounds of 9mm ammunition at that time, while under the direct supervision of a trained firearms professional/range officer, but will receive no formal instruction in terms of shooting techniques to improve accuracy or marksmanship. He will practice with a Glock 17 semi-auto. This individual will then be trained by a qualified instructor in the operation and use of a Simunitions(TM) replica Glock handgun.
CCW Holder: This individual must complete the training that most states require to obtain a CCW. They will receive instruction on firearms-usage and handling, and will be made aware of several pertinent laws. The student will then train in the same fashion as the "killer" with 400 rounds of 9mm through a Glock 17, under the supervision of a trained CCW instructor. This participant will be allowed the request and receive advice in terms of handling, marksmanship, and accuracy of the firearm.
They will have to complete what is often a common CCW marksmanship/competency exam, where the shooter fires 7 shots at a target 5 yards away, with 5/7 hits, and 7 shots at a target 10 yards away, with 3/7 hits. The participant must complete this requirement, regardless of how many attempts they need.
Marksmen: Some groups will be assigned a "marksman" in lieu of a "CCW Holder" or "killer." These individuals must demonstrate above average competency with a handgun, and be able to be able to achieve a rank of "expert marskman" as per the US Army guidelines regarding the Beretta M9 handgun. They must demonstrate their shooting ability on a range under supervision of study organizers to be qualified for participation.
Lecture Hall: The lecture hall will ideally be made to mimic that of a real teaching environment in most major universities in the country. It will consist of a front and centered teaching area, complete with desk, and computer. There will be a projector pushing lecture slides onto a screen behind the professor's desk area. The student section must consist of seating on an incline with stairs leading to the higher sections of the room. The lecture hall shall have no less than 2 entrances and exits, and no more than 4 entrances/exits. At least one door must be located at the top of the incline, and one at the bottom.
Group Design
There will be 5 groups.
Control: Groups in this category will have neither a "CCW Holder" or a "Marksman" present. Only a single "killer" and students will be in this group.
CCW Group: These groups will contain a single "Killer" and a single "CCW Holder" in addition to the students.
Marksman Group A: These groups will contain a single "killer" and a "Marksman" in lieu of a "CCW Holder".
Marksman Group B: These groups will contain a single "marksman" in lieu of the "killer", and a single "CCW Holder" to oppose the "marksman."
Marksman Group C: These groups will consist of a single "marksman" in lieu of a "killer", and contain no "CCW Holder" or "marksman" to oppose them.
Study Rules: First, safety is paramount. The Simunitions usage must be monitored and approved by individuals trained to do so. All individuals will be allowed to wear whatever clothing they prefer, provided it is deemed adequate for safety by those monitoring safety. The "CCW Holder" must be wearing clothing capable of adequately concealing the gun. They may chose whatever holster they prefer.
Second: The "killer" will be instructed to "kill" as many other study participants as he/she can. He/she will be instructed that a kill counts as a body CoM shot, CNS shot, or shot that is deemed to hit a major blood vessel, such as the femoral artery, as police response times under real incidents upon which this study is based are inadequate to guarantee the survival of individuals sustaining such wounds. They will be offered a monetary incentive for each "kill." The killer will not be informed of the possible presence of the "CCW Holder" in the room, rather, they will be told that when shot by the "police" they are to place their hands in the air. They will be told that the "police" will respond to their attack within an unknown time-frame, so they should try to be as quick as possible in attaining the maximum number of "kills." They will be instructed that they may shoot back at the "police", who will also place their hands in the air if shot.
Third: Those playing the roles of student and CCW holder must attend class, and take with them a backpack, notebooks, and writing utensils. They must take notes throughout the "lecture" prior to the actual attack, which will occur at a random time during the "lecture." They will be informed of a monetary incentive should they escape the room without being shot. If shot in the chest, back, or head, they are to lie down for the duration of the exercise. The CCW Holder will be offered an additional monetary incentive should they successfully shoot the "killer", which will be equal to that of escaping. The equality of incentives should replicate the real life quandry of such a situation, where escaping alive is the only true goal, be it through fight or flight.
Outcome Measures: The outcome measure being studied will be the relative rates of escape of the students. The "death" of the "killer" will be viewed as a positive outcome measure as well. The rate of escapees in the control is to be compared to all other groups. An escape ratio, defined as %Escaped(Control):%Escaped(Group#) shall be established. The percentages will be calculated after running a number of trials within their respective groups. A ratio > 1 is a negative outcome for CCW as an effective means to increasing survival odds, a ratio < 1 is a positive outcome. Should the ratio a certain group be < 1, further trials will be ordered to ascertain replicability of the outcome. Should further trials consistently reveal ratios < 1, then it is reasonable to deem the presence of a CCW Holder in a mass shooting event to increase the likelihood of survival for all individuals during such an event. Should the ratio be close to 1, yet show an increased chance for death of the killer, this too will be viewed as a positive outcome measure, as it will guarantee an end to the shooting spree, and no chance of a real killer pursuing the escapees or targeting other similar rooms.
A ratio less than 1, and an increased likelihood of "killer" mortality is the ideal outcome for demonstrating the efficacy of a CCW in saving lives during a mass-shooting event.
