Father Knows Best
Member
A friend recently challenged me to prove my assertion that CCW permit holders are among the most law-abiding segments of the population. I couldn't find any recent reported studies, so I did my own analysis of the readily available data. I thought y'all might find it interesting, so here it is:
The State of Michigan has a lot of nice data available online, including annual Uniform Crime Reports (the most recent of which is the 2003 Uniform Crime Report: http://www.michigan.gov/msp/0,1607,7-123-1645_3501_4621-102205--,00.html) and Concealed Carry Weapons reports (http://www.michigan.gov/msp/0,1607,7-123-1591_3503_4654-77621--,00.html) from the Michigan State Police.
The UCR provides extensive data (almost 300 pages) on crime in the State of Michigan. It provides numbers of crimes committed and arrests, broken down by types of crime, demographics, geography, etc.
The CCW reports include data on CCW permits applied for, issued and revoked. They also include data on CCW permit holders charged with crimes, showing the status of the charges (pending, convicted, acquitted, dismissed, etc.) and the type of crime.
The comparison between the UCR data and the CCW Annual Report data is not exactly apples-to-apples, but some valid comparisons can be made. The UCR provides calendar year data, for instance, on arrests by type of crime, and also breaks down those arrests by age of the arrestee. Along with U.S. Census Bureau data on Michigan's population, we can determine arrests rates among the adult population in Michigan for various types of crimes.
The CCW report covers 12 month periods from July 1 to June 30, instead of a calendar year, apparently because Michigan's CCW shall-issue law went into effect on July 1 of 2001. It doesn't provide "arrest" data, as the UCR does, but it does provide data on CCW permit holders "charged" with various crimes. While "arrests" and "charges" aren't the same thing, they are probably close enough that we can use the data for comparison purposes. After all, arrests typically result in charges, and very few people are charged without being arrested.
To get a CCW permit in Michigan, you must be at least 21 years old. According to the U.S. Census Bureau's most recent data, there were 7,112,093 people aged 21 and older in Michigan as of July 1, 2003. According to the Michigan State Police (MSP) CCW annual reports, 111,620 CCW permits were issued from July 1, 2001, through June 30, 2004 (the most recent date for which info is available). Of those, 226 were subsequently revoked, leaving 111,394 outstanding. That means that 1 in every 64 adults in Michigan had a permit to carry a concealed pistol as of June 30, 2004. Assuming that new permits have continued to be issued at a net rate (issuances less revocations) of 30,000 per year, then we would expect that another 22,500 were issued through March 31, 2005, for a total of almost 134,000 outstanding. That's one permit for every 53 individuals age 21 or older in the State of Michigan. As we don't yet have actual data on permit numbers after June 30, 2004, however, we'll use the figure of 111,394 permits outstanding for the rest of this analysis.
According to the 2003-04 CCW report, there were 398 felony or misdemeanor charges against CCW permit holders in that year. The report doesn't say how many holders had multiple charges, so the actual number of CCW permit holders charged with a crime may be less. Given that there were only 76 permits revoked because of a felony or misdemeanor charge against the holder, it's probably safe to assume that those 76 persons each had multiple offenses and committed the vast majority of the 398 crimes charged against permit holders.
To eliminate any possibility of biasing the data in favor of my hypothesis, however, I will assume that each of the 398 charges represents a separate person and a separate arrest. Of the 398 charges, 62 were dismissed, 6 resulted in not guilty verdicts, 171 resulted in convictions, and 159 were pending. The most common charge was, not surprisingly, failure to present a license to carry a concealed firearm -- a crime that non-permit holders cannot be charged with. Of the 171 convictions, 28 were for failure to present a license. Excluding those, there were 143 convictions for other crimes. That's a rate of 3.3 charges and 1.3 convictions per 1,000 permit holders. Even assuming that each of those charges was a separate individual, that's a rate of 1 misdemeanor or felony charge for every 303 CCW permit holders.
According to the 2003 UCR, there were 345,058 arrests in 2003, roughly 90% of whom were adults. That's an arrest rate of 43.7 per 1,000 adults. Stated another way, the UCR shows that one in every 23 persons age 21 or older was arrested in 2003.
As stated above, however, fewer than one in every 303 CCW permit holders was charged with a crime. 303 is just over 13 times 23, suggesting that the general adult population in Michigan is 13 times more likely to commit a crime than the population of CCW permit holders.
The real concern, of course, is not crime in general but violent crime such as assault, domestic violence and homicide. Here, the data is even more compelling. According to the UCR, there were 463 arrests for murder in Michigan in 2003, 82% of which were adults. Thus, there were 5.3 arrests for murder out of every 100,000 adults in Michigan. Not one CCW permit holder out of 111,394 was charged with murder, however. If CCW permit holders were committing murder at the same rate as the general adult population in Michigan, we would expect to have seen six (6) CCW permit holders charged with murder according to the most recent CCW report.
For assault (including aggravated and simple and domestic), there were 47,784 arrests involving 39,183 adults. That's a rate of 5.51 arrests for assault per 1,000 adult population, or 1 in every 181 adults. Among CCW permit holders, there were 61 charges for assault. That's a rate of 0.5 per thousand, or just 1 in every 1,826 CCW permit holders. Of those 61 charges, 25 resulted in conviction.
It seems pretty clear to me -- CCW permit holders are, as a group, far less likely to commit crimes than the general population. Even assuming that the 398 charges reported involved 398 separate individuals (or 398 separate arrests), the MSP data shows that non-CCW holders are 10 or times more likely to commit a crime than CCW holders, depending on the type of crime you consider. For assault, the ratio is 10:1, i.e., a randomly selected adult is 10 times as likely to commit a crime as a randomly selected CCW permit holder. For all crimes, the ratio is 13:1. For murder, the ratio is infinite, because no CCW holders were charged with murder!
Moreover, it is instructive to note the fact that only 76 permits were revoked on account of a misdemeanor or criminal charge against the holder. This fact strongly suggests that as few as 76 individual CCW holders accounted for those 368 criminal charges (other than failing to carry a permit), with each of those 76 individuals facing multiple criminal charges. If that is indeed the case, then the figures become even more compelling. If 100 CCW holders were charged with an average of 3.68 crimes each, that's a general crime rate of 0.9 per 1,000 CCW holders. As the general adult population is arrested at a rate of 43.7 per thousand, the general adult population is 50 times more likely to commit crimes than CCW holders!
I'm interested in any critiques of this analysis, and any citations or references to similar analyses and other useful data sets (such as those from other states).
Thanks,
FKB
The State of Michigan has a lot of nice data available online, including annual Uniform Crime Reports (the most recent of which is the 2003 Uniform Crime Report: http://www.michigan.gov/msp/0,1607,7-123-1645_3501_4621-102205--,00.html) and Concealed Carry Weapons reports (http://www.michigan.gov/msp/0,1607,7-123-1591_3503_4654-77621--,00.html) from the Michigan State Police.
The UCR provides extensive data (almost 300 pages) on crime in the State of Michigan. It provides numbers of crimes committed and arrests, broken down by types of crime, demographics, geography, etc.
The CCW reports include data on CCW permits applied for, issued and revoked. They also include data on CCW permit holders charged with crimes, showing the status of the charges (pending, convicted, acquitted, dismissed, etc.) and the type of crime.
The comparison between the UCR data and the CCW Annual Report data is not exactly apples-to-apples, but some valid comparisons can be made. The UCR provides calendar year data, for instance, on arrests by type of crime, and also breaks down those arrests by age of the arrestee. Along with U.S. Census Bureau data on Michigan's population, we can determine arrests rates among the adult population in Michigan for various types of crimes.
The CCW report covers 12 month periods from July 1 to June 30, instead of a calendar year, apparently because Michigan's CCW shall-issue law went into effect on July 1 of 2001. It doesn't provide "arrest" data, as the UCR does, but it does provide data on CCW permit holders "charged" with various crimes. While "arrests" and "charges" aren't the same thing, they are probably close enough that we can use the data for comparison purposes. After all, arrests typically result in charges, and very few people are charged without being arrested.
To get a CCW permit in Michigan, you must be at least 21 years old. According to the U.S. Census Bureau's most recent data, there were 7,112,093 people aged 21 and older in Michigan as of July 1, 2003. According to the Michigan State Police (MSP) CCW annual reports, 111,620 CCW permits were issued from July 1, 2001, through June 30, 2004 (the most recent date for which info is available). Of those, 226 were subsequently revoked, leaving 111,394 outstanding. That means that 1 in every 64 adults in Michigan had a permit to carry a concealed pistol as of June 30, 2004. Assuming that new permits have continued to be issued at a net rate (issuances less revocations) of 30,000 per year, then we would expect that another 22,500 were issued through March 31, 2005, for a total of almost 134,000 outstanding. That's one permit for every 53 individuals age 21 or older in the State of Michigan. As we don't yet have actual data on permit numbers after June 30, 2004, however, we'll use the figure of 111,394 permits outstanding for the rest of this analysis.
According to the 2003-04 CCW report, there were 398 felony or misdemeanor charges against CCW permit holders in that year. The report doesn't say how many holders had multiple charges, so the actual number of CCW permit holders charged with a crime may be less. Given that there were only 76 permits revoked because of a felony or misdemeanor charge against the holder, it's probably safe to assume that those 76 persons each had multiple offenses and committed the vast majority of the 398 crimes charged against permit holders.
To eliminate any possibility of biasing the data in favor of my hypothesis, however, I will assume that each of the 398 charges represents a separate person and a separate arrest. Of the 398 charges, 62 were dismissed, 6 resulted in not guilty verdicts, 171 resulted in convictions, and 159 were pending. The most common charge was, not surprisingly, failure to present a license to carry a concealed firearm -- a crime that non-permit holders cannot be charged with. Of the 171 convictions, 28 were for failure to present a license. Excluding those, there were 143 convictions for other crimes. That's a rate of 3.3 charges and 1.3 convictions per 1,000 permit holders. Even assuming that each of those charges was a separate individual, that's a rate of 1 misdemeanor or felony charge for every 303 CCW permit holders.
According to the 2003 UCR, there were 345,058 arrests in 2003, roughly 90% of whom were adults. That's an arrest rate of 43.7 per 1,000 adults. Stated another way, the UCR shows that one in every 23 persons age 21 or older was arrested in 2003.
As stated above, however, fewer than one in every 303 CCW permit holders was charged with a crime. 303 is just over 13 times 23, suggesting that the general adult population in Michigan is 13 times more likely to commit a crime than the population of CCW permit holders.
The real concern, of course, is not crime in general but violent crime such as assault, domestic violence and homicide. Here, the data is even more compelling. According to the UCR, there were 463 arrests for murder in Michigan in 2003, 82% of which were adults. Thus, there were 5.3 arrests for murder out of every 100,000 adults in Michigan. Not one CCW permit holder out of 111,394 was charged with murder, however. If CCW permit holders were committing murder at the same rate as the general adult population in Michigan, we would expect to have seen six (6) CCW permit holders charged with murder according to the most recent CCW report.
For assault (including aggravated and simple and domestic), there were 47,784 arrests involving 39,183 adults. That's a rate of 5.51 arrests for assault per 1,000 adult population, or 1 in every 181 adults. Among CCW permit holders, there were 61 charges for assault. That's a rate of 0.5 per thousand, or just 1 in every 1,826 CCW permit holders. Of those 61 charges, 25 resulted in conviction.
It seems pretty clear to me -- CCW permit holders are, as a group, far less likely to commit crimes than the general population. Even assuming that the 398 charges reported involved 398 separate individuals (or 398 separate arrests), the MSP data shows that non-CCW holders are 10 or times more likely to commit a crime than CCW holders, depending on the type of crime you consider. For assault, the ratio is 10:1, i.e., a randomly selected adult is 10 times as likely to commit a crime as a randomly selected CCW permit holder. For all crimes, the ratio is 13:1. For murder, the ratio is infinite, because no CCW holders were charged with murder!
Moreover, it is instructive to note the fact that only 76 permits were revoked on account of a misdemeanor or criminal charge against the holder. This fact strongly suggests that as few as 76 individual CCW holders accounted for those 368 criminal charges (other than failing to carry a permit), with each of those 76 individuals facing multiple criminal charges. If that is indeed the case, then the figures become even more compelling. If 100 CCW holders were charged with an average of 3.68 crimes each, that's a general crime rate of 0.9 per 1,000 CCW holders. As the general adult population is arrested at a rate of 43.7 per thousand, the general adult population is 50 times more likely to commit crimes than CCW holders!
I'm interested in any critiques of this analysis, and any citations or references to similar analyses and other useful data sets (such as those from other states).
Thanks,
FKB
