Neverwinter
Member
- Joined
- Nov 13, 2008
- Messages
- 1,049
Yes, a study is only as good as its methodology.
CCW crime rate data
- Thread starter david58
- Start date
- Status
coloradokevin
Member
- Joined
- Mar 22, 2008
- Messages
- 3,285
Like someone else said, if CCW-killers were a disease, the frequency of occurrence is so small that no one would be looking for a cure:
471 total CCW-Killer deaths (over 5 years)
(NOTE: expect this number to be higher -- if not grossly inflated -- than is factually true, given that the VPC lobbyists are the source of that number).
6,000,000 licensed CCW holders
(NOTE: This figure is from 2010, so also expect this number to be higher. Source is MSNBC: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3471438...cord-numbers-licensed-pack-heat/#.UJcy4LR5nFI)
So, we have 471/6,000,000 = 0.0000785
That's 0.00785% of CCW holders who kill. Or, stated another way, 7.85 out of every 100,000, on a five year basis. Divided into an even split over 5 years (That is 471/5= 94.2 deaths per year. Remember, VPC "data" is a five year tally), we're looking at a figure that is more like: 1.57 kills per 100,000 CCW holders. Remember, the CCW holders who were actual killers sometimes killed more than one party, and may have killed themselves, too. So, the 1.57 number doesn't even represent the number of killers per 100,000 (that number would be even lower). I'll take those odds ANY day, especially when you consider the following:
CDC Mortality Data shows (2011):
Rate of death from falling: 8.5 per 100,000
Rate of death from motor vehicle accidents: 11.1 per 100,000
Rate of death from accidental poisoning and exposure to noxious substances: 10.8 per 100,000
(versus our stat: Rate of death by CCW holders, compared to total number of CCW holders: 1.57 per 100,000)
Yeah, the VPC's data is probably exaggerated to begin with. Even if it isn't, the 471 deaths over 5 years is a trivial amount, when you consider our country's 300 million plus population.
471 total CCW-Killer deaths (over 5 years)
(NOTE: expect this number to be higher -- if not grossly inflated -- than is factually true, given that the VPC lobbyists are the source of that number).
6,000,000 licensed CCW holders
(NOTE: This figure is from 2010, so also expect this number to be higher. Source is MSNBC: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3471438...cord-numbers-licensed-pack-heat/#.UJcy4LR5nFI)
So, we have 471/6,000,000 = 0.0000785
That's 0.00785% of CCW holders who kill. Or, stated another way, 7.85 out of every 100,000, on a five year basis. Divided into an even split over 5 years (That is 471/5= 94.2 deaths per year. Remember, VPC "data" is a five year tally), we're looking at a figure that is more like: 1.57 kills per 100,000 CCW holders. Remember, the CCW holders who were actual killers sometimes killed more than one party, and may have killed themselves, too. So, the 1.57 number doesn't even represent the number of killers per 100,000 (that number would be even lower). I'll take those odds ANY day, especially when you consider the following:
CDC Mortality Data shows (2011):
Rate of death from falling: 8.5 per 100,000
Rate of death from motor vehicle accidents: 11.1 per 100,000
Rate of death from accidental poisoning and exposure to noxious substances: 10.8 per 100,000
(versus our stat: Rate of death by CCW holders, compared to total number of CCW holders: 1.57 per 100,000)
Yeah, the VPC's data is probably exaggerated to begin with. Even if it isn't, the 471 deaths over 5 years is a trivial amount, when you consider our country's 300 million plus population.
Last edited:
mljdeckard
Member
^^Yep.
- Status
