rainbowbob
Member
I recently engaged my brother, who happens to be a judge, in a rather long debate on gun ownership. This was accomplished via email, and I post it here for those of you might be interested. It is long...and nobody is "converted" - but some decent points are made (mostly by me ) and it gives you a perspective on what the "other" side is thinking.
Rich –
I’m not expecting to change your mind, nor is it my intention to needle you - but I came across the following [excerpted from a long article] that may cause you to at least reconsider how conclusions based on flawed statistics have been used repeatedly to mislead the public. (e.g., “Guns in the home are 6 times more likely to kill an innocent person than a burglar.”)
You may have heard this statistic somewhere and assumed it was an accurate and reasonable conclusion. We all do that from time to time – especially when the statistics support our foregone conclusions. I only want to point out that (as you already know) statistics can be used unfairly and, if left unchallenged, can muddy the waters of an already fractious national debate. Next…I will cite statistics and use them to support my already foregone conclusion. ; - )
I realize you are probably not interested in taking the time to read much on this subject – but this is pretty short. It refers to a study that is generally considered to be the most rigorous study, with the largest sample-size, of any study on the defensive use of guns by ordinary citizens in this country. That study – as well as a dozen others – support estimates of between 1.5 and 4.5 million defensive gun uses per year by ordinary citizens in this country. It also indicates that the incidence of injury in violent crimes against innocent victims is appx. 17% for those that resist with a firearm – and appx. 25% for those that do not resist at all.
Brother Bob
Rich –
I’m not expecting to change your mind, nor is it my intention to needle you - but I came across the following [excerpted from a long article] that may cause you to at least reconsider how conclusions based on flawed statistics have been used repeatedly to mislead the public. (e.g., “Guns in the home are 6 times more likely to kill an innocent person than a burglar.”)
You may have heard this statistic somewhere and assumed it was an accurate and reasonable conclusion. We all do that from time to time – especially when the statistics support our foregone conclusions. I only want to point out that (as you already know) statistics can be used unfairly and, if left unchallenged, can muddy the waters of an already fractious national debate. Next…I will cite statistics and use them to support my already foregone conclusion. ; - )
I realize you are probably not interested in taking the time to read much on this subject – but this is pretty short. It refers to a study that is generally considered to be the most rigorous study, with the largest sample-size, of any study on the defensive use of guns by ordinary citizens in this country. That study – as well as a dozen others – support estimates of between 1.5 and 4.5 million defensive gun uses per year by ordinary citizens in this country. It also indicates that the incidence of injury in violent crimes against innocent victims is appx. 17% for those that resist with a firearm – and appx. 25% for those that do not resist at all.
Brother Bob
When gun-control advocates and public health scholars consider whether keeping a gun for defensive purposes is sensible, they frequently bring up one variant or another of the most nonsensical statistic in the gun control debate.
In 1975 four physicians published an article based on data derived from medical examiner files in Cuyahoga (Cleveland) County, Ohio. They noted that during the period 1958-1973, there were 148 fatal gun accidents (78% of them in the home) and 23 "burglars, robbers or intruders who were not relatives or acquaintances" killed by people using guns to defend their homes. They stated that there were six times as many home fatal gun accidents as burglars killed. (This appears to have been a miscomputation-- the authors counted all 148 accidental deaths in the numerator, instead of just the 115 occurring in the home. Although the value of the number does not matter much, the correct ratio was five rather than six.)
On the basis of these facts alone, the authors concluded that "guns in the home are more dangerous than useful to the homeowner and his family who keep them to protect their persons and property" and that "the possession of firearms by civilians appears to be a dangerous and ineffective means of self-protection."
Eleven years later, Arthur Kellermann and his colleagues unwittingly replicated the Rushforth findings, finding that "for every case of self-protection homicide involving a firearm kept in the home, there were 1.3 accidental deaths, 4.6 criminal homicides, and 37 suicides involving firearms." The authors then concluded, just as Rushforth et al. did, that "the advisability of keeping firearms in the home for protection must be questioned."
[The Op's opinion on these numbers: (1) Throw out the suicides – people intent on suicide will complete the act with whatever means are most readily available. (2) Throw out the criminal homicides – people who are doing drug deals in their home, violently abusing their spouses, and otherwise murdering innocents, do not have any correlation to the lawful defensive use of a firearm. (3) The remaining 1.3 accidental deaths are suspect in that many gun suicides are reported as “accidents”.]
While conceding that they had made no effort to count "cases in which burglars or intruders are wounded or frightened away," the authors never acknowledged a far more pertinent and serious omission: lives saved by defensive gun use.
The basic problem that makes these ratios nonsensical is that they are presented as risk-benefit ratios, but in fact do not reflect any benefits of keeping guns for self-protection. If one sets out to assess only the costs of a behavior, but none of its benefits, the results of such an "analysis" are a foregone conclusion. What is so deceptive about the ratio is the hint that killing burglars or intruders is somehow a "benefit" to the householder. This is both morally offensive and factually inaccurate. Being forced to kill another human being, criminal or not, is a nightmare to be suffered through for years. Even police officers who take a life in the course of their duties commonly suffer the symptoms of post-traumatic stress syndrome.
Gun owners do not keep guns for the sake of having a chance to "bag a burglar." Instead, the benefit of defensive gun ownership that would be parallel to innocent lives lost to guns would be innocent lives saved by defensive use of guns.
As previously noted, less than one in a thousand defensive gun uses involves a criminal being killed. Few purportedly life- saving defensive uses of guns involve killing the criminal, and, conversely, killings of criminals do not necessarily involve saving the life of a victim. Therefore the number of criminals killed does not in any way even approximately index the number of lives saved. It is, however, impossible to directly count lives saved, i.e. deaths that did not occur, so it will never be possible to form a meaningful ratio of genuinely comparable quantities.
This implied cost-benefit ratio is so meaningless that it can fairly be dubbed the "Nonsense Ratio."