Doing local gun survey

[.cheese.]

taliv
to theeconomist: it was obvious to me that the list was what you were tryign to answer, and not the actual questions you intended to put on the survey. i guess my advice would be to be honest with the surveyees about what you really intend to do with the info. is this a project for a college class? is it because you have some political ax to grind? who is sponsoring it? is it by someone in your community for your community and you plan to distribute the results only to people in your community? are you going to send the data off to the NRA or brady's or the local news station? i'm guessing you're just trying to get your neighbors to realize how many of them are gun owners, but who knows?

i wouldn't put a lot of effort into securing a website. my recommendation would be to do a reverse lookup of telephone numbers by street address, and call each of the neighbors. or, better yet, attend the next homeowners association meeting and present the idea of a survey to them. you'll know right away whether it will be well received or get people all hot and bothered. ask them for suggestions about how they'd rather respond and you'll get better turnout

This is part of some data gathering I'm trying to do for an economics paper I'm writing. The working title so far is "'Guns Carried' - Private Provision of a Public Good" or something around that. Nope, the info isn't intended to go to Brady or the NRA and I certainly wouldn't be collecting or reporting individual information on ownership. This survey in particular was/is part of an attempt to get a small idea of average gun-ownership in households - and do separate surveys in separate neighborhoods separated by approximated income level (lower/middle/upper/super-wealthy/etc). My university is somewhat sponsoring some of what I'm doing, but mostly it's being financed (whatever little financing it's needed thusfar) by me. No political ax to grind. Like I said in a previous thread about this paper, I'm trying to take a neutral standpoint on it and whatever I find is what I find - whether I like it personally or not. I'm hoping it will turn out one way, but I'm not going to make up data to support my personal opinion (pro-gun obviously). Depending upon how well the paper turns out (quality wise) I might send it off to see if anybody wants to publish it, or if nothing else I'd probably post it online if I feel I can be proud of it (as in - it's well-written and researched). No news stations though.... I'm not the NRA, or Brady, or any pro or anti group.... (well, actually that's not entirely true as I am an NRA member - but you get the point) nor am I the FBI or any government organization. Just an academically inclined type who happens to have an interest in guns.

The questions ultimately would not be exactly as I phrased them. For example, I'd if nothing else explain what HR1022 is, etc. so people would know what the heck I'm talking about.

As for the questions, there's two reasons I want to keep the questions yes/no. The first is that I don't want to deal with any central-tendency problem - but that's not usually as much of a problem on non-subjective questions. The second though is the statistical methods involved. By keeping things yes/no, I can keep things simple (binomial).

As for my neighbors knowing how many guns there are? Well, considering the fact that people seem to be opposed (here at least) to the survey idea, I don't think I'd make the poll results immediately available (perhaps overall data could be given to a participant upon request? if it was just aggregate that is). More importantly though, these aren't my neighbors. Maybe I'll use my neighborhood too, but I'd like to get a larger sample than that.

The one thing that has me a bit confused is how here so many say that they're proud to be a gun owner, yet if it came down to saying yes/no on an anonymous survey about whether they own a gun, they'd not answer? That's dissapointing. If people at THR wouldn't answer, then there's no hope whatsoever it would seem for the average Joe to answer.

as for cold-calling, isn't that illegal for me to do? Especially with the do-not-call list? Or does that only apply to advertisers?

I only have questions.... not answers.... so I wouldn't be selling anything.

So far it seems this paper is going to be a lot harder than I thought.

 

[.cheese.]

GEM - thanks for the info.

actually - the dean himself is very interested in this paper.... I only half-jokingly suggested it as a paper-topic, he was the one who jumped on it and said he'd love for me to do a paper on the subject.

one thing though I must make clear. This isn't going to be necessarily pro-gun. It's not necessarily going to be anti-gun either. I just want to be clear that when doing this I am going to try to ignore my personal thoughts and rely on numbers, models, and well-established theories (economics/statistics/sociology/etc).

 

[taliv]

the info isn't intended to go to Brady or blah blah blah

yeah, i know. i was just suggesting you tell your neighbors that so they'll answer your questions

you know, there are companies set up to do polling and surveys. i'm sure if you talk to some of the profs in your university who do research, they'll be able to turn you onto a company that does that sort of thing. they can also help you design your questions so they're minimally biased. that way, if anything ever does come of the data, the whole world won't start their response with "his survey wasn't 'scientific' and his questions were biased to elicit pro-gun responses".

 

[Jacob Staff]

... from my cold dead lips.

That is going to be a tough sell. Too much to loose and too little to gain.

 

[Essex County]

I feel it is time to fess up to all THR members. I've been lieing to for years. I own NO firearms and I don't know anyone that does. Essex

 

[230RN]

[AX GRINDING ALERT] beepbeepbeepbeepbeep...

actually - the dean himself is very interested in this paper.... I only half-jokingly suggested it as a paper-topic, he was the one who jumped on it and said he'd love for me to do a paper on the subject.

Hmmmmm.....and exactly why is he so interested...?

Why don't you ask the dean some of those questions on your survey, eh?

Where's my roll of Reynolds Wrap (TM)?

.....beepbeepbeepbeepbeep[/AX GRINDING ALERT]

 

[Kaylee]

Economist - please understand the difficulty your survey proposes. Leaving aside for the moment that most mass-media pieces on defensive weapons are almost invariably hatchet jobs, there's still the trick that you're asking people "Okay, what expensive property do you own?" You might as well add "and what hours are you usually home? Do you have a dog or burglar alarm?" to the questions, as they'll be perceived about the same way.

Most folk won't cotton to that kind of question too well, and with good reason.

Conversely, if say Joe Lawmaker is giving a speech on arms or whatever, it's entirely appropriate in the Q&A section to stand up and say "But Congressman, I have one of those rifles. So do all of my friends. We're normal hardworking loyal American citizens. And we'd be mighty upset if you vote to take our rifles away. Capiche?"

Context matters.


Thus, I think your best bet is still to talk to your local FFLs. They handle all the EBRs and suchlike coming in, and have a handle on carry class enrollments as well.

So here's what I'd do - go to each of the storefront FFLs in the city, or country, or whatever area you're covering. Show them your prelimary work, and ask if they'd be willing to provide you with the following information for your report-

1. What is the average number of people you know of that complete a Concealed Carry class in a year? Has that changed in recent years?
2. What percentage of the firearms that you sell would you characterize as defensive in nature, as compared to those geared more for target competitions or hunting use?

You could also contact the major manufacturers (Bushmaster, Rock River, etc) and/or distributors (your FFLs could tell you who the local big ones are, I have no clue) and see if you can get rough estimates from them on the amount sold in a given year.

Compare that to census data to get a rough percentage of armed folk around you. I believe that the number of active CCWs should also be public domain as well.

That should give you the information you need for your report. (And honestly, I'd be interested in seeing it as well. )

 

[.cheese.]

230RN - don't be such a cynic. I get the impression you think he's anti, and I haven't gotten that impression from him at all. To assume that is like assuming that anybody with an interest in nuclear physics wants to build an H-bomb.

I'd be very surprised if he has an agenda.

 

[.cheese.]

Kaylee - I thought about that. I started by asking the local police department where I'd get CWP figures county by county, and next I'll try to find out sales from FFL's county by county, starting with the one I'm in.

I have a bad feeling though FFL's are going to tell me to shove off. At least around here, most gun shops and such are in it for profit and the moment they realize you're not an immediate cash-flow source (as in not buying right then and there), you're invisible, if not unwanted.

I'll try nonetheless.

 

[HiWayMan]

I'll pile on this one as well....

You'd have better luck squeezing blood from a turnip.


There is no way in hell I'd answer those questions. In fact I'd report your butt to the local PD ASAP.

 

[GEM]

I hate to be a downer but local police departments will not be quick to respond if at all. They don't have a good feeling about most academic research. Also, if you have a quick time scale for the study - don't expect a quick response.

BTW, did this study get approved by the institution's IRB? The second you start to ask questions unless in a classroom for educational purposes in that classroom, the school must give you IRB approval.

 

[Bearhands]

NOT SAFE

NOTHING....... -0-...... NADA is safe online.....Folks, just reading this becomes part of your "history"....... I wish you well with your paper... maybe a tape-recorded (not w/ video) ANNONYMOUS interview w/ "the man on the street" might be a way of gaining information? I did exactly that in college for a paper on the effect of hunting to a particular area of my state. It worked, got an "A"

 

[ZeSpectre]

I'm with Pax.